Hello Friend
I'll jump straight to it... I've had a look at the 3.35 and the below is from the blog, posted last night at 17.35...
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3.35 Sandown
Belami Des Pictons - 1 point win - 5/1 (betfred) 9/2 (bet365) 4/1 (gen)
Ami Desbois - 1 point win - 10/1 (gen)
as of 17.35 Friday
Belami Des Pictons - I do think this race could be all about whether this one is fit and if he puts in a fluent round of jumping. If he's here to run his race I think he may make 4s+ look fairly big come the business end. Venetia continues in good form and indeed trainer/jockey are 6/16,10p in the last 30 days, 3/7,4p in the last 14. She is 4/9,6p since the start of 2014 with handicap chasers in class 1-3, over 3m+, returning after 300+ days and we all know she can ready them. This one was meant to run at Ascot in the race Cyrname won, and he was well backed there before being withdrawn. I'm not sure what the reason was, but they may have avoided one there and this is a weaker race than that, and over his preferred trip I think. He's unexposed over fences and in handicap chases and i've no doubt he'll prove himself to be much better than 146, hopefully starting with this race. A 2 1/2 length defeat behind Waiting Patiently in Nov 17 looks quite good now. In that Warwick novice chase over 24f in heavy he made a bunch of 130s animals look like trees, winning hard held. He is the most exciting horse in this. I think he'll be fit and I think he's the one to beat, and that he could still be over-priced. He should race prominently, has big field chase experience, and should go well. Hopefully he can add to Venetia's two winners of this race in recent years.
Ami Desbois - if he fluffs his lines, or even if he doesn't, hopefully this one can pick up the pieces and see him off, given the odds. He's also unexposed over fences, and in handicaps, and is well treated against some of his better form, especially over hurdles. He is a decent animal and appears to be getting better over fences. His run two starts ago was effectively his first of the season and he ran a decent race for a long way. The Chepstow winner would frank the form in the Welsh National, giving Elegant Escape plenty to think about. At Haydock he cruised into contention, having possibly done too much on the front end, but in any case he ran like a non stayer over 27f there. This looks more his trip, he's a slogger, a trier and won't mind if this is hard work. He also races prominently and should be in the right spot. The one question is how will he handle going right handed. It's his first go this way round and that could just be circumstances, and nothing more. He jumps straight enough but we will find out soon enough whether he 'must' go left handed. I thought that risk was built into his price. He should show himself to be well handicapped over fences at some point, and looked interesting at double figure odds for his in-form trainer. He's 3/8,4p in the last 14 days, and 3/5,4p with Kielan Woods riding. Hopefully they can add to those stats. If he jumps the first few fine, I don't think he will be out of the places.
I was happy to leave the others for one reason or another. I suppose at prices I though Kilcrea Vale and Kayf Adventure looked of some interest but I ended up discounting them for various reasons.
Best of luck, Josh |
