Good Morning, Friend
To Goodwood...
I'm rushing out the door this morning to go and see 'the children' at Amy's in Newmarket. It is good only being 12 minutes up the road from our Syndicate horses. Our new horse 'Give Me A Boom' has now arrived from Ireland and he's been put straight into a field for a few weeks to rest, eat, have fun and mature further. He'll be back in for a winter jumps campaign. An exciting prospect for the years ahead.
We've still got around 45% of shares left in him, you can find out more HERE >>> (any questions, do email me!)
Proud Mari is on her holidays also. It will be good to see them both. And The Plumber continues to work well, we'll soon be pondering his next race options which will be a novice/maiden hurdle somewhere.
I did have time to flick through Goodwood's card (using the excellent Geegeez Gold of course) in an attempt to say something useful/interesting on the blog, repeated down below, to use/ignore as you please. As always I try and flag a stat or two worth noting - so there' some value to be had even if the horses I flat tail off! I'm fairly hopeful about these two though...
Racing Chat
To Goodwood I go for today’s flat musings… there is some rain in the air, 'good' at the moment and they could get a little bit more this morning but with any luck no worse than good to soft. It is a fascinating card, plenty of lightly raced types, and it could be informative. It’s always worth noting unexposed types who do well around here as not every horse handles the place, and some of them will return and pop up again one day, maybe back here at the ‘festival’.
Two horses caught my eye in the handicaps…
2.45 – Marshal Dan – 9/1 – looked a cracking EW bet to me, mainly on the pace angle. It looks like he will get a freebie on the front end, which he enjoys, and he’ll be a big danger if they let him get too far ahead and if David Egan gets his fractions right. He won’t mind what the ground does, likes winning, has a C2 win to his name from Sandown last season, and should strip fitter for his Muss return, where he used a lot of gas early from wide to get to the front, but no doubt needed it. Heather Main’s horses are going well also, a yard to keep an eye on – 3/15, 6p last 14 days, 56% rivals beaten. The horse runs here for the first time and that’s always a question, going downhill, balancing, handling the straight. He will make all in a 7f handicap at some point this season no doubt and it could well be this one.
He is open to attack from something more progressive, and that could well be the Haggas horse, he could well be the one running Marshan Dan down, but he could get away, and he is inexperienced. Hopefully the Hills horse needs the run and a chance he wants proper quick ground to be seen to his best.
4.30 – Saratoga Gold – 4/1, 9/2 – I thought that looked more than fair. He won comfortably here over 1m6f when last seen and is unexposed over 2m, this his first go. He may not stay of course but after last time I can see why they’re stepping him up, doing all his best work late, hitting the line hard, and doing so in a way which suggests to me there’s a fair bit more to come at some stage. They also didn’t look to go very quick there. ‘Pace’ was my ‘way in’ here but a reverse of the race above – there are 3/4 in this, inc Goshen, who usually bomb forward and it’s not impossible they go too quick and set this up for something more patiently ridden. If this goes worse than GS that would be a question for SG, for all he handled proper soft as a 2YO in nurseries, but maybe his ability got him through the odd run. He certainly has more staying handicaps in him.
He had a few of these behind him last time also, and I thought he’d uphold that form.
Goshen is a danger of course but maybe he’ll do too much on the front end and it is his first run in 90 days, returning to the flat. I don’t think this mark is a gimme but maybe he'll prove me wrong.
Charlie Hills does well with flat ‘stayers’ also, 11/44,16p, +70 SP in the last couple of years, worth noting.
William Buick rides most places well but especially here – most of his rides may be worth a closer look… 13/56, 21p, 61% rivals beaten, all rides here in the last year, his win % has been consistent for 5 years here.
More generally for the card, other races today, and the days ahead, it’s worth flagging that some of the ‘big boys’ are in fine form. Plenty of shorties of course and you have to pick them but…all runners of the below are worth a second glance at the moment...
John & Thady Gosden: 12/39, 20p last 14 days, 30.77 % win SR, 65% rivals beaten.
William Haggas: 16/34, 22p, 47% sr, 74% rivals beaten, last 14 days. Mad form.
Harry & Roger Charlton, while not the fire power of those above, still an ‘elite’ trainer for me if getting the fire power. Anyway, 5/21, 10p last 14 days, 66% rivals beaten. They’ve one at Haydock in the 1.55, and one at Good in the 3.55 – making his 2nd start, and they do tend to come on bundles for their first run, their ‘2nd career start’ stats since Harry was added to the licence… 4/16, 7p, +22. The market is suggesting ‘not today’ with this one but a stat to keen an eye on, assume a big step forward from a debut run.
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That’s all for today, GL with any bets as always,
Josh
