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My Chase Tip

#1 – 1.35 Chep – Broken Quest – 2 point win – 8/1 (BV, UniB) 15/2 (gen)

Broken Quest – it’s to the Vets we turn for the opening C3+, 3m+ handicap chase of the ‘season’ proper, for those who view Chepstow as the return of the ‘winter’ action. This horse looks the overpriced one to my eyes, hopefully having been freshened up with this race in mind. When he was last seen earlier in the year he was in the chasing form of his life and it could be that he runs his race while a few others fall in a hole. He’s a 10 year old having his first start in Vets company, which is usually a good angle for these sorts of races. In this particular race, 6 of the 7 renewals since inception have gone to the ‘younger’ generation.

The horse… well he’s won fresh before, should bounce off the ground (but won’t mind what the weather does, there could be some rain but it may not make a difference) and does have course experience, having finished a running on 2nd around here over 19f back in Jan. He has only ever won going right-handed but I’m not sure much in that, if anything he jumps a bit out to his left, he’s not had many goes over fences and any errors were as a novice. He won his point going this way round also. Tom Bellamy returns and while Jack Andrews clearly gets a tune out of him, that’s a big enough upgrade for me.

He has a likeable win record, 9/25, 12p in his career to date and with any luck arrives in the same form as when last seen in June – while his very best form wouldn’t match the very best form of some of his rivals here, being fit and running your race is half the battle in these vets races. He looked to be improving when last seen, which certainly isn’t the case for anything else in here. He was winning easily from some ok yardsticks before bumping into a course specialist at Perth, who has been a winning machine this year, but not beaten far, staying on, with another LTO winner chasing them home in a close 3rd. It’s solid enough form and I’m not sure Perth was ideal for him. I thought he may appreciate a return to a wider expanse, as he’s a galloper and may have been winning despite the nature of those tighter courses. He should just keep going up this straight. Based on his form when last seen there could still be some upside potential to him, now it appears to have clicked as a chaser. This mark is a career high, but it’s more of an unknown, having never reached it previously. He could still be well handicapped in these conditions, and dropped into ‘Vets Class’.

The other positive I think is that he could bounce out handy and track what pace there is. He should be in the right spot and not too far back. If Tom can get him in a rhythm early, we should have some fun. If he clatters one of the first few, then maybe there is something in the RH only profile, but I’m not convinced as yet, and not at this price point. While David Dennis hasn’t had many runners in recent weeks, he had a close second a few days back.

Of the rest…

Well, if the real Cloth Cap steps forward from this mark, it’s game over for the rest, as nothing in here can match his back-class. However, it could just be he’s on the downgrade and at these odds I’d rather oppose. He has never won on seasonal return as yet, usually shaping as if he badly needs it. Of course, in seasons gone by he’s had other early season targets and it could be this year they’ve decided to get him a1, that’s not impossible. They have left off the CP which makes me think he could be here for a spin also, and Jonjo Junior rides, which is no bad thing in itself, but Richie M and more so Tom Scu have done all the winning on him. There could be nothing in that. The plan is to stick to the Vets series with him and maybe they’re working back from the Sandown finale. However, he could just be gone at the game, or certainly nowhere near as good as he once was. Of course, he may not need to be, but I’ll leave him for now and if today is the day, so be it.

Some Chaos is obvious enough also I suppose, having won this race last year rather convincingly. That renewal didn’t work out too well so some questions over the form but conditions are clearly ideal, the yard are in form, he’s well handicapped and maybe this is the time to catch him. His win in this last year was his first start after a wind-op, no such luxury this time but maybe that sorted him out. He ran the odd ok race after that, with the odd shocker also. Of the top two, I’d prefer him, but for one who has so many Ps in his profile, 10/3 was just a bit short for me. However, he’s one of those I can struggle to get right and maybe the case again today. It’s hard to know which version will turn up, esp being another year older. His best form of last season only so-so also. However, if he’s in the form of his run in this last year, he’s going to be bang there.

I have to leave The Mighty Don at 4s, for all this is the sort of race he may doss up in, if/when it clicks. However, he is rather slow, may find this sharp enough, can walk through a fence, and always appears to get going too late. He’s had enough chances. He has the class, the mark, just what version turns up. He tailed off around here on his seasonal return last year, for all they went hard early, and it is his first go in a Vets race, which he may enjoy. But I was happy to leave him here, esp with no run under his belt also.

Forgot To Ask could be staying on, in decent form when last seen, and a good record fresh. He’ll enjoy the ground. At the odds, I didn’t like the fact he’s usually patiently ridden and he may be left with a lot to do in this line up. I had a niggle over his form, class, and this mark, which has been beyond him previously. However, he could be one of those who runs their race when a few others don’t and that may count for something. He will be staying on, if able to keep tabs on them, and I can see why he's being nibbled at.

Innisfreelad – he has a fitness question, Tom Bellamy has won on him previously and hopefully he had the choice, for all Brian has ridden him plenty. His better recent form has come in headgear, which is left off today, and I thought he may want further than this these days, a chance on this ground it all happens a bit too quick. However, they’re subjective judgements that could just be wrong. I thought his best 3m form in recent times is a step below some of these, including the selection. At his very best he could be thereabouts though.

Al Roc looks up against it to my eyes on recent evidence.

So, an interesting little contest where you could make a case for a few, but at 15/2 or so I wanted the 10 YO Veteran debutant onboard, who was in the form of his life when last seen. Hopefully he arrives here in a similar mood and can continue his fine year to date.

Pace… Al Roc can go forward but may not have the class to lead this bunch. Broken Quest is often handy, Cloth Cap may be right up there, and Some Chaos can race prominently also. The other three may well slot behind those, with The Mighty Don and Forgot To Ask bringing up the rear.

Fingers crossed for a good start to the season proper, hopefully I can build on my recent good form since the end of July, 4/11,8p +23 points. 

Things will start hotting up soon and Adam Norman will be returning to daily tipping duties also. Exciting times.

All the best,

Josh

p.s don't forget to grab Hugh's excellent 10 To Follow Guide HERE >>>