Good Morning, Friend,

Southwell - Shandancer thoughts + 'through the card'

My ability to pick out a losing 'tip' from the blog and email it out is unrivalled! I'm not sure I've sent you a winner since Oct 7th, sigh. One day!

There was a typo in yesterday's figures, it should have read +43 points since Monday 14th, now +41 points. Hopefully we'll add a few more in the coming weeks and if I do send any more to the free list, I actually land on a winner for you.

To Southwell...

It's a big enough day for our Syndicate and Shandancer, who makes his debut for us. He is here to do his best and run his race. He was a cheap 10k purchase from Ireland who I'd like to think will make it look value in time.

You can find a video race-preview I sent to his owners by clicking the image at the top of the email.

I’m arguably always more positive than I should be (green tinted specs) but I’m confident he should run a big race and I’d like to think he’ll be in the mix (possibly playing for 3rd/4th) – that’s if he jumps of course (first hurdle start in public) and if he repeats his homework on the course, which is never assured.

He will sharpen for the run also but should be fit enough to run his race. The top two in the market could be hard to beat but the rest of them are much of a muchness, on paper anyway. We will learn plenty but provided he comes home safe and shows us something, that’s the main thing.

I do think 22s+ underestimates his chance (small each-way, don’t go mad, possibly 'each way extra' type with added places) but we shall see – maybe I have misplaced confidence but I’ve dreams of him being a 120+ handicap hurdler in time based on some pieces of form. We will have fun finding out. I’m confident he’ll be winning plenty of races (shows enough at home/his Irish efforts), just a case of to what level and when. In truth as long as they win, what level can be irrelevant. We will learn something.

My shortlist of dangers/likely winners… Red Dirt Road, Mrs Grimley, Daniel Deronda, Shandancer

*

Southwell

‘Through The Card’ – not the best of cards for quality and on initial glance does look one that ‘could’ be dominated by the top of the market (famous last words)…still, the odd ok price… notes follow below…

12.25 – Fairfield Ferrata – 11/2

1.00 – Ballinsker – 12/1 (EW)

1.35 – Mexican Boy – 10/3

2.05 – Pyffo – 7/2

2.35 – Shandancer – 22/1 EW

3.05 – Sporting Ace – 9/4

3.35 – Samatian – 2/1

Notes…

Fairfield Ferrata – she looked the overpriced one here to my eyes, like most of these arriving in some sort of form and all unexposed over fences. It’s open enough. However, she’s consistent, won well LTO (this track may suit more) and Emma’s claim negates the ride. Jedd O’Keefe does well enough with LTO winners, some of her form reads well and like the rest is open to further progress.

Ille De Jersey was going to win LTO when slipping on landing, undoubtedly well handicapped but a question as to what that form is worth, an obvious fav if that hasn’t dented her confidence.

Ballinsker- 12s looked generous here for one who should race up there and is generally a good jumper. He was running a good race on return when UR late on, for all may have been 2nd anyway but he was running a big race and may come on for it. He’s won around here over hurdles from a mark of 120 and is undoubtedly well handicapped off 119 here. The CP, which he didn’t have on last time, return, and I thought he’d give this a bold go from on the pace. If he runs his race I thought he’d be in the mix.

The top two in the market have been well found, both unexposed chasers but still with the odd question at the odds. One of them may take this but I couldn’t wade in and would rather play the Evan William’s chaser at the odds, hopefully 3rd at worst although the odd bookie paying 4p.

Mexican Boy – hmm, well this is a naff C5 handicap chase and I thought i’d go with the chase debutant, from a trainer/jockey in good form. Sean is Olly’s go-to #1 rider now and they’re now starting to fire in the winners. Sean rides this place well, as he does most tracks in fairness. This one has some ok hurdles form to his name, some of the efforts with substance. This is his second run after a break, shaping ok at Hunt, and now gets 1st CP. Those, plus fences, could work the oracle, as could the drop in trip (with an aggressive ride maybe). Whether he can jump, who knows, but evidently the team want to crack on over fences and it’s ‘the’ main reason for a big jolt forward and why he could look well handicapped soon. He may just be moderate of course.

Zuckerberg didn’t do much wrong last time for all I’ve no idea where that run came from, but if he backs it up is a worthy fav but he can beat me at 11/10. Ardmayle has the ability to win this but just whether he needs the run, he usually does. The others look moderate enough.

Pyffo – a bit of a guessers race of course, the market may guide. Jonjo has his team in good form and is 3/8,5p with his his 4YO NHF horses around Southwell in the last 5 years, +14. He and Anthony O’Neill are 4/9,6p +17 when teaming up in the last year. Jonjo can ready them and this one is related to a few bumper winners. He’ll do for me in a race Jonjo has won previously. Not a race to go mad on of course.

Proper Twelve a worthy fav but hard to know what his form is worth, but at least has experience and fitness, which could count for plenty.

Shandancer – well I’m hopeful of a big run as above – it is his first hurdle start in public and his first run in 200 days. I think he’s done enough work but depends what happens when under the pump 2 out, will he power on or feel it a bit – either could happen, but hopefully he keeps going. He’s schooled well enough but again, at race pace, with other horses to contend with, who knows. That can only improve with experience. However, he does have an engine, we shall see how far that takes him against this oppo but from what I know, 22s or so does look a shade overpriced.

If there is a ‘good un’ in here, one who could just be much better than these and a 130+ horse in the making, it is Jonjo’s Red Dirt Road whose point form reads well, both in substance and on the clock. 2s may look solid enough.

Mrs Grimley is solid and a worthy second fav – still a question over the form and not impossible both of those want further already, but their ability could get them through. Maybe Shan will just find this too hot, I’m not sure. Those top two have questions for me but maybe they’ll both streak clear with the rest playing for 3rd, which i’d be more than happy with.

Amy is hopeful of a big run from Daniel Deronda if he settles. Jack’s riding as he takes some knowing and has taken a while to teach how to be a jumps horse/settle. He’s fit enough, and this is his trip. He does have ability and hasn’t shown his best as yet over hurdles. He’d certainly have handicaps in him from this mark, but can he mix it in this. Possibly.

Sporting Ace – could be a winner for Jack, riding for Neil King who he does well for also. This horse hasn’t done much wrong to date, in bumpers and on hurdle debut in May, for all not much of a race. He made his return at Exeter when possibly needing it but will appreciate this step back up in trip. He bumped into one there also, a Nicholls horse who could be graded class in the making. I thought a chance that he has a bit more class than these. Neil King has a solid course record/20% win SR in the last 5 years.

I did change my mind from Biowavego, so we know what happens now. I thought his run last time, and the form, was only so so, open to attack from something a bit better but he didn’t do anything wrong , stays well and looks progressive – no shock winner but I’ll go with the handicap debutant. Maybe they’ll fight it out

3.35 – Samatian – another shortie, this one in a poor race and evidently not one to go mad on either. However, he still looks progressive, hasn’t done much wrong, will appreciate going back left-handed. He bumped into one LTO but it could be that running his race is enough. But it’s weak stuff and something may improve from nowhere. He should race prominently out of trouble. The ground a slight question I suppose but if he doesn’t take this, I wasn’t sure what else would step forward…

Sporting Mike and Berties Bandana both make handicap debut and could be of mild interest, for all enough questions, including the latter. But strange things can happen on handicap debut, especially when trying a new distance. The market may guide with those, I’ll be keeping an eye on Jonjo’s.

I suppose My Girl Lollipop at 12s or so could run an ok race if fit here, plenty of guesswork required but the yard can ready them and she’s unexposed. Not sure what to expect there, but I’ll stick with Kim’s.

*

That's all for today as I rush out the door, do cheer our lad on and hopefully he does himself proud,

All the best,

Josh