Good Morning, Friend
I hope you had a decent weekend. I've had a few days off staring at horses, for all we enjoyed watching our Dancing Eyes make her debut at Kempton yesterday. A decent fourth on her first start, having travelled like a dream. She hadn't been pushed overly hard at home beforehand and we're hopeful she'll take big strides forward on her next start or two. At this stage she looks another well bought yearling by Amy and Lemos, given she cost under 10k, but early days of course! She should improve for further in time also and should be a better 3YO. But we'll see what she can do in the next few weeks. Hopefully the form of that Kempton race works out well.
To Nottingham... 4pm...
I thought I'd get my eye back in my diving into this staying handicap, but it soon became apparent that it's rather competitive and probably not a race for serious involvement.
In saying that, I couldn't resist a small EW nibble on Quantum Leap (8s) and Moothill (18s) with x4 places up for grabs with most.
If you like your 1m6f/2m+ flat handicaps, this could be a race to keep an eye on moving forward as on paper it's very competitive, the form could be strong and a few of these may find easier opportunities moving forwards.
That could be applicable to Moothill, having his 2nd ever run on the flat. He's been in good form, including a 20f win over hurdles, and he looked outpaced over 1m6f last time. I thought 2m could unlock a fair bit more, especially if they go a stronger pace. Neil Mulholland has his string in fine form, 3/8,4p +15 in the last 14 days, and Kevin Stott takes over, who's 2/5 for the yard. Maybe he will find this too competitive but hopefully 2m helps him take a step forward and he should be galloping on. 16-18ss looked generous enough I thought, whatever he does. His last run suggested Neil could get a flat handicap win out of him somewhere over 1m6f-2m when it falls right. As I've been typing this email he's in the process of losing a leg in the market so we'll see how he runs! Hopefully it doesn't mean a thing.
I thought Quantum Leap looked a bit big at 8s also (has been clipped in 2 points as typing this), for all being top weight in a race like this may prove problematic. Still, he couldn't have been much more impressive last time on his 3rd ever start, falling out the stalls, held up cold, and picking up well up the straight, showing an impressive change of gears. He hit the line hard suggesting 2m could suit and he won there in the manner of a progressive horse. He may well need some luck if starting slowly again but if running his race should be finishing off strong. Whatever he does here, I'm sure he'll leave this mark behind at some stage.
Plenty of stats worth absorbing for Ed Bethell - if you like following certain trainers or using as a 'way in', arguable he could near the top of the list. Our syndicate will have a flat horse up north one day, and Ed is near the top of our list at the moment. He's operating at a near 20% SR with all runners in the last year.
He's 16/58, 29p, +20 with LTO winners, so knows how to handicap them and to then keep their form/place them to good effect. Those making their second start in a handicap, are 8/32, 12p +13 SP.
Ed is 6/17,10p +14 with his runners at Notts (runners in 3.30 and 4.30 also) and when Callum Rodriguez is riding... 25/88, 41p, +20 in the last year, a combo worth noting. They have a 30%+ SR together in handicaps. Not bad.
It will no doubt all go wrong today of course but some very good stats there as a foundation moving forward.
Fingers crossed those two out-run their odds. I can't say I was running scared of the top two in the market but maybe they'll put me in their place. Golden Shot's race fell apart last time but he did win it well, but should find this tougher, as will Campaign Trail, for all both still unexposed.
Of the others at big prices... C'Mon Kenny wouldn't be without a chance either at 16s, the yard only 1/36, 7p in the last 14 days which put me off a tad. Soft ground may explain his last two runs. The horse won well over 12f at Pontefract before that on good to firm, first go over 16f here - could it unlock even more? This is only his 10th start on the flat and another to keep an eye on - he may want faster ground, but his Ponty win suggested more flat wins in him at some stage. If he handles the ground, no forlorn hope, and it may have dried out plenty come race time.
Ralph Beckett remains in mad form and everything he runs at the moment is worth a close look, 32% win SR in the last 30 days, 32/100,56p.
He's 7/17,10p +17SP with Rossa Ryan in the last 14 days. His Seahouses is unexposed also, 1st blinkers, first go over 16f. Both 3YOs receiving chunks of weight.
Alnilam hasn't been doing much wrong either, he steps up in trip for the first time, Milton Harris operates at a 30% SR with his LTO winners in the last two years. He'll likely be dropped from wide and may need plenty of luck/horses to come back to him, I suppose that put me off at 6s, but it's that sort of race.
As I said, competitive stuff. As always do with that lot as you please, hopefully something useful above, and it could be 'form to follow' in the next few weeks.
GL with any bets, all the best,
Josh
