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(2016/17/18:+194 ; 2019: 1/17,4p, -8)
2.05 Newbury - Shanroe Santos - 1 point win - 11/1 (gen)
that's all for today on this post, as of 09.00 when posted/tweeted, write up...
I thought 10/1, 11/1 underestimated this ones chance here. In these Veterans' races I like to make a case for 'youth' as 10 year olds win plenty of them, and 8 of the last 10 runnings of this race have been won by the 'younger' brigade. This one runs his first race in a Veterans' chase I believe and he's been in the form of his life recently. He has the best recent 'non veterans' chase form' in the race I think. He hacked up at Fontwell from a horse who won NTO and that Cheltenham run behind Beware The Bear was arguably a career best. That winner is smart on his day. Bar a small field win he's never looked that comfortable at Sandown but he still ran ok to a point LTO, in a deeper race than this against plenty of youngsters. He tends to get a bit far back and make errors there, especially at that level in soft. In fairness to him in the 3m5f marathon there three runs back he was just about ahead at the pond fence, before his stamina in very soft ground gave way. His recent form suggests he prefers some 'good' in the going and I thought if he repeated that Cheltenham run he'd win this. The yard are on fire, 4/8,6p in the last 14 days and the jockey takes off a handy 5lb, putting him below his last winning mark. MT has only ridden five times over fences now but has won twice, both with aggressive rides. His ride on Le Reve at Lingfield was masterful and hopefully he can get a tune out of the selection here. At his best he'd comfortable track any pace here and in these conditions I thought he may have too much speed (relatively speaking) for some of these in the latter stages. I thought he was worth a go at the price and if he jumps as he can, i'd be surprised if he isn't in the places, and hopefully he can take first prize. He looked the overpriced one in this.
Of the rest... well Abolotionist didn't look over-priced to my eyes given his career high chase mark, the break and the form of the yard... there may be nothing to it but he is 0/13 in the last 14 days and for one at 7/2 you want all boxes ticked I think. He's a worthy fav given his profile but I was happy to take him on. Caroles Destrier looks about the right price also. He won a C3 here two starts back in determined fashion, staying on after a possible pace burn-up. They finished in a heap there somewhat but a couple of them have since placed in decent races. The PU LTO can maybe be ignored given he suffered interference and still hadn't been asked a question. I can see the case but thought he could lack the toe for this test. In any case his price looked about right. The Last Samuri again couldn't tempt me in at 11/2. He ran ok LTO but I do wonder if this test may happen too quickly for him also. He is a dour stayer and could get behind as they turn for home. If he holds his position then I could be in trouble. I could be wrong and the yard are in fine form, but I was happy to let him beat me at that price. Theatre Guide hasn't won for an age and is a couple of runs away from an honourable retirement I think. He ran OK LTO in the Veteran's final but will need more here. I wanted a bigger price for all that he clearly has the ability to take this and it's team Tizzard in a Saturday handicap chase.
Joe Farrell... well back in the days when I could tip monster priced staying chase winners, he was just one , having put him up here at 40s for The Scottish GN when last seen. They always have a fond place in your heart but i'm going to assume he'll need the run here, as a prep for either THE GN or back to Ayr. His trainer has indicated she expects him to need it, (as has King with Ziga Boy) but they can get them fitter at home than they sometimes realise. He did have a minor setback also and at single figures, with a strange jockey booking (hasn't ridden horse before, nor for the trainer in recent years), I was happy to leave at single figures. If he was this price on the back of a run i'd be having a go but 9s after 300+ days wasn't big enough to tempt me in. He does have more staying chases in him, probably not at open Grade 3 level, but he's still lightly raced. The rest have even more questions and for various reasons I can't have them.
Best of luck,
Josh
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