13.00

Lots of stats here, linked to certain runners…

Abbie Power – well off the top of my head I wouldn’t think of Jardine as a trainer of 1st time out 2YOs so the fact this one ran so well on debut may be significant? He steps up a furlong here and that race is working out well, 3/9,5p of those to have run since, 3rd and 4th have both won, as have the 7th and 8th. The 4th, one of Fahey’s, came out and won a 20 runner York seller. The yard is going ok and Jardine is 1/10,3p with his Thirsk 2YOs. He’s also miles clear top rated Geegeez Speed figures, we shall see if that translates to reality.

Pearl of Kuwait – Fahey is 7/42, 15p (17%) +16 with 1st time 2YOs at Thirsk in last 5 years. He’s 6/26, 10p (23%) +18 all 2YOs here in non-handicaps in last 2 years. 2/7,4p over 6f. Jonny Pete is a 7lb claimer worth keeping the right side of. He’s based with Mark Johnston, 3/12,5p all rides last 30 days, 1/1 when teaming up with Fahey.

Carbonado – also goes for Fahey. Paul H rides this one and trainer/jockey are 5/24,10p +29 in the last 14 days, ticking along.

Makhan King – Roger Fell is 3/10,4p with 1st time out 2YOs in the last year, +33 SP… that’s a mini micro worth keeping onside I suspect, for a very shrewd trainer. PJ isn’t a ‘go to’ jockey for him and the market may or may not guide for this one, there’s speed in the pedigree and his dam won over 5f. Fell is 0/16,1p with his 2Yos here last 5 years, but even so, he clearly doesn’t have many 1st time outers aged 2, and I suspect likes readying one for the odd gamble, they do like a bet.

Dandy Dimont – Nigel Tinkler/Faye M are 3/10,4p +10 when teaming up in the last 14 days, all runners, ticking along. Fast ground an unknown, his French run and LTO on softer, but maybe a reason for improvement. His last race is ‘hot’, now 5/16, 7p of those to have run since, the winner has gone in again which isn’t easy to do under a penalty in a novice, so clearly bumped into one there. Up a furlong.

I may not have mentioned the winner of course, Boughey’s may go well if can give away the 7lb. Of note is that Boughey does well with LTO winners, 24/73, 44p +32 with those so far, AE 1.20, 70% rivals beaten.

13.35

Ohh another 2YO novice stakes, fun fun…

Miss Rosa Bella – some of the Fahey stats above relevant for this one.

Made In Brockley – that man Boughey… trainer/jockey are 3/12,6p in last 30 days, +11. With his 1st time starters he’s 11/43, 20p, +46 SP, with 1st time 2YOs in last year… 7/34, 13p, +5. Solid, although not sure odds compilers take much of a chance now, but never know.

14.10

Ah, a selling handicap, the joys… what can I say of interest here…

Aiden’s Reward – well he’s the only horse to have placed at the course, maybe that will count for something. He was a close 2nd over CD off 53 back in June 20, but then didn’t do much here a few days after that. He hasn’t done much since and been lightly raced, for all 10f may have stretched him LTO, first run in 62 days. Harrison Shaw was also onboard for that one good course run here.

Kayfast Warrior – drawn low i think he’s the pace angle here if they all run as they have done on recent starts. Should be able to get out and back the rail. Hasn’t been beaten far at all on his three runs this season so far and at least looks like he tries. Some of his races have produced a few subsequent winners also. First run on turf, 0/8 in career on the sand to date, so an unknown but could be a reason for improvement.

Bright Apparition – Burke is 4/16, 6p +12 all runners here in the last year, that may be of mild interest. He’s one in the race above who is the pace angle but looks likely one for handicaps based on recent form. Anyway- this one ran 2 days ago and didn’t do much, maybe he’s useless – but Burke is 2/7 with horses returning within 10 days, at Thirsk. He did lead LTO and from trap 16 may need to get out fast and across, or dropped out and in no mans land. Still, could just be useless but it’s that sort of race!

Awful stuff.

14.45

Yojaari- not doubt a short price, but Haggas is in form, and has done well at Thirsk in the last year, 7/14,10p, +17 all runners. That includes this one LTO who bolted up.

Tampa – first run after being gelded, gets a mark after this run, however… Fahey / Hanagan / Thirsk/ all 3YOs >>> 5/15,9p +12 in last 2 years.

Zagato – has an eye-popping Geegeez speed figure compared to the rest here, a 99, the next best is 63. We will see how that converts to reality….

15.20

My Thought – Tim Easterby/ David Allan / Thirsk / Handicaps/ Horse Aged 4 >>> 6/13, 8p +45 SP in the last 2 years, 73% rivals beaten, 9/33,15p +55 in last 5 years. 

He’s top rated Geegeez Speed. There’s a stamina question, but this 7f tempo may help, if not flat out so soon. The 1st and 2nd from his race LTO have both gone in again as have the 7th and 8th placed horses.

Proud Archi – interesting from a ‘profile’ perspective against race conditions and is a CD winner. He won over CD off 82 in August 19, 63 today. He needs a strong pace which he hasn’t quite had the last twice, he’s usually patiently ridden as he takes a grip, and need to run through horses. He will be staying on here, will he get there in time? He’s 2/6,4p on all visits to Thirsk.

Kodiac Brown Bear – hits those Fahey/Hannagan/3YO stats above.

15.55

Manigordo – hits those Tim/David 4YO handicap stats above. He along with Gale Force Maya are the pace angle here on recent runs, Dods may try and lead, David tracking… will they stay out in front in a certain order? not impossible, both drop down from deep York C2s LTO. Tim’s drops in trip also and is a CD winner earlier in the season.

Interesting with Gale Force Maya… the sires offspring (Gale Force Ten) on the Flat aged 4 or older are 13/44, 18p +26 SP in the last 2 years. I’ve no idea if one horse responsible for a lot of those wins or not, but an interesting sire snippet.

In terms of horses with form in conditions… ground, class, course, distance, field size.. well, they’ve all won or placed plenty and it looks competitive stuff, on paper at least.

16.30

Singe Anglais – he was just behind Proud Archi at Beverley, and he runs in an earlier race as per above – clearly if he goes well that will boost this one’s chance maybe. He drops in trip here and will need a frantic gallop to aim at, but he may get it. He’s a strong traveller arriving in form. Tinkler and Faye again. If he isn’t outpaced and can hold a position, I suspect he will be thereabouts, down in class also. They did crawl LTO.

Arnold – a frustrating horse who’s very well handicapped, he’s an EW horse as he struggles to put his head in front, he likes sitting off a strong pace and running through horses. He’s tanked through his last two races, can it all fall right here?

Cappacoco – arrives in form and is a pace angle from 11. He is up a furlong here but does stay I think, he could get out and stay there, a decent RPR 58 from a mark of 48 LTO, mark up to 52 here.

Rebel Redemption is the pace angle low and should lead that side. Jeans Maite may blast out high, but first run in a few months and is best at 5f to date, I assume he will blast out and fade in the final furlong, but you never know. Dylan’s Lad, for the same trainer, can go forward also. Those two and Cuppacoco could help tow Arnold and Singe Anglais into this, unless one of them stays there.

17.00

Oh well, nothing much to say here of use I don’t think. No immediate stats of note. I’m not even sure who will set the pace. There’s a Prescott horse taking a big step up in trip who will no doubt be short, and ‘could be anything’

Clansman is interesting to a point, down in class. Before his last run he was ‘staying on’ plenty, including here. He may well enjoy this 14f tempo and on 6th run of his life may not be without a chance. But it’s one of those races, all aged 3, most of them thoroughly unexposed over this distance, and no distance winners in the race.

Olympus is the only one to have placed at the trip but that was a 11l defeat LTO in a maiden handicap. Although it was his first run of the season. He’s a 1st visor on here… I wonder if David A may play catch me if you can. Possible.

*

Anyway, do with those thoughts as you please. I hope there’s a winner there somewhere but you never know, it’s very much been a look with my ‘way in’ eyes and i’ve definitely mentioned some stats of interest that will find winners in the future! Especially at Thirsk. In particular those Fahey/Hanagan/3Yo and Tim/David/4YO micros are worth absorbing.

*

All the best, 

Josh 

p.s I use HorseRaceBase and Geegeez Gold for all of my analysis, don't forget you get free daily access to plenty of geegeez tools, including a few full racecards per day, as a free registered user... find out more and sign up for free here >>>