Subject: The Grand National: My Trends 'Shortlist'



Good Morning Friend

The Grand National 

Below you can find my 12/12 trends pointers for the great race, and those horses who 'hit' said profile - whether they help or hinder, we shall see! As always such stats/trends are only ever a guide/way in. 

Obviously it's 'the' race in which to pick a few fancies out, cross your fingers and hope for the best. 

My Trends

12/476, 48p (total sample size previous 12 years) 

12/12 aged 8-11
  • 6 or 7: 0/30,0p
  • 12+ : 0/46, 3p
  • Youngest horse in race: 0/25, 0p
  • Oldest horse in race: 0/24,3p
12/12 ran in C1 or C2 LTO (did not: 0/60, 3p)

12/12 had run over 25.5f+ in career (had not: 0/61, 5p)

12/12 had 3+ runs in prev 365 days (2< : 0/78, 7p)

12/12 had 18+ career runs (17< : 0/121, 10p)

12/12 had 10+ chase runs (9< : 0/86, 6p)

12/12 had 2+ career runs in month of April (0-1: 0/101, 10p)

12/12 had 3+ runs this season (2< : 0/110, 9p)

12/12 had 5+ career wins (4< : 0/138, 13p)

12/12 ran Left Handed LTO (Right handed: 0/121,10p)


Applying the 12/12 stats would point to a ‘shortlist’ of nine against that profile…

Cloth Cap, Any Second Now, Magic Of Light, Chris’ Dream, Lake View Lad, Balko Des Flos, Shattered Love, Alpha Des Obeaux, Ballyoptic

Is the winner or a big priced place horse in that list somewhere? We will find out soon enough. 

Trainers (to have won race prev 12 years/their runners)
  • Cloth Cap
  • Milan Native, Farclas, Shattered Love, Alpha Des Obeaux
  • Yala Enki, Give Me A Copper
  • Vieux Lion Rouge

*

As always, best of luck with whatever your lucky pin lands on, 

All the best
Josh 


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