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Racing To Profit Results Review 2018
+£ 2,137.50p to just £5 win bets...
What follows is a look back at results for 2018 on my blog, racingtoprofit.co.uk.
I’m going to get in the habit of doing this monthly from now on.
My general approach, especially within the members’ club, is very different to most. I’m a fan of the ‘portfolio’ approach, offering systematic strategies and more conventional ‘tips’. I also encourage a certain amount of free thinking, using any information I find to help readers find their own bets. This includes any stats/trends I’ve used in my big race analysis - some readers put that work to better use than I do!
Below I touch on the results from my main content, and single out just one of my RTP members who’s a tipping marvel.
In short, 2018 has been a very profitable, year. It's also been enjoyable.
The headline figure from my content is +427.5 points (to mainly 1 point win bets), broken down as…
- Free Tips (mainly C2/G3 handicap chases, 3m+) : 9/116,33p, +40 points
- Members Big Race Tips: +143 points
- Members advised jumps strategies: 716 bets / 117 wins / 227 wins|places / 16% win SR / +244.5 points / 34% ROI
Free Tips
116 bets / 9 wins / 33p / +40 points
In reality it’s only been an ‘ok’ year on the free tipping front, where I generally focus on class 2/Grade 3 handicap chases over 3m or further. I won’t complain at a 34% return on investment and I have tipped less in the free posts, especially Monday-Friday, instead focussing on the ‘big’ chases. That’s been quite deliberate as I’ve focussed more on my content in the members’ posts and there are only so many hours in the day. But, outside of Festival week, classy UK 3m+ handicap chases will continue to live in the free posts as they've always done.
A couple of weeks ago I took a long hard look at some of my recent tipping efforts, with much to improve on. In truth I haven't started 2019 that well either.
You can read that post HERE>>> . It includes an over-the-shoulder video.
Highlights in 2018 included tipping the Irish and Scottish Grand National winners at 33/1 and 40/1. With any luck I can do the same in 2019!
Had a couple more placed horses got their heads in front the free points profit would have matched previous years – around the +75 point mark – but that’s how it goes. I back my own tips to £25 per point, and won’t complain at +£1000 profit this year. Every little helps.
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Members Big Race Tips
158 bets / 16 winners / 10% win SR / 175 point outlay / +143 points profit advised|bog/ +102 BFSP/ 81% ROI
You can find a full spreadsheet of all bets for the year HERE>>>
A decent year on this front. As always I only care for profit come year end. These tips+ previews mainly focus on big, 16+ runner, class 2/Grade 3 handicaps, with a special focus on the spring jumps festivals, and in particular Cheltenham.
Cheltenham week 2018 pulled in +92 points profit and it was my best ever tipping week with numerous 9/1+ winners, focusing on the toughest races of the week. That would indicate the rest of the year has pulled in ‘only’ +51 points. I seem to always do well in the first 3rd of the year, but then struggle for consistency thereafter.
So, there’s plenty to work on as always, but then again, this sport would be boring if it was easy. You can never rest on your laurels in this game and I’ll try and have a better second half of the year in 2019, as well as trying to repeat the first half of 2018.
2018 was the first year I attacked the Galway Festival and that went well. 4/12,5p, +23 points. Indeed come the end of that week I hit my yearly high of +183 points. Since then I’ve given 40 back, but that’s how it goes given the races I play in. My Flat ‘big’ handicap tipping needs work and most of the losers since then have been on the level. I’m not sure how I’ll attack those this year. I picked out Bacchus at Royal Ascot, winning at 50/1, but he basically paid for all the other losers on the level. Damn. Thankfully it’s all jumps for the foreseeable future and Daklondike brought some welcome big race cheer over the festive period.
I’ll try and better 2018s performance this year. It won’t be for the lack of effort. And there's no better feeling than getting one of those big races correct. I've built a solid foundation on which to try and improve on. I would like to be more consistent for sure.
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Members’ Advised Jumps Strategies
TOTAL, 1 point win, (inc BFSP for S1/S2 as advised)…
716 bets / 117 wins / 227 wins|places / 16% win SR / +244.5 points / 34% ROI
What follows is a quick look at the four main advised jumps strategies which derive from the stats qualifiers against my Trainer Track Profiles stats packs.
I won’t bore you with the rules for each strategy and for ease of reference will just call them strategy 1, 2, 3, 4.
Strategy 1 (aka S1)
- Dec 18: 3/28,6p, +15 , +15.47 BFSP
- Total 2018: 11/147, 38p, +32, +76.77 BFSP
- 7.5% win SR, 26% win|place SR, 21% ROI early/bog, 52% ROI BFSP
Strategy 2 (aka S2A)
Dec 18:
- 1 point win: 3/44,12p, +9, -7.54 BFSP
- 1 point EW: 3/44,12p, +30
- 1/2 point EW: 3/44,12p, +15
Total 2018
- 1 point win: 13/241,53p, +26.6, +58.26 BFSP
- 1 point EW: 13/241,53p, +100
- 1/2 point EW: 13/241,53p, +50
- 5.3% win SR, , 22% win|place SR, 24% ROI 1 point win BFSP, 20% ROI for each way.
Strategy 3 (aka S3A#)
- Dec 18: 4/15,6p, +2.7
- Total 2018: 43/137,64p, +75.94
- 31% win sr / 55%% ROI
Strategy 4 (aka W1)
- Dec 18: 10/53, 14p, +0.53
- Total 2018: 50/191, 72p, +33.53
- 25% win SR, 17.5% ROI
TOTAL, 1 point win, (inc BFSP for S1/S2 as advised)…
716 bets / 117 wins / 227 wins|places / 16% win SR / +244.5 points / 34% ROI
So, with those 4 strategies plus my big race tips/free tips, that's a +427 point year, 43% ROI, which isn't too bad. :)
(with the usual long losing runs! It's all about the long term)
Or +£2,135 to just £5 bets.
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There isn't too much to say on what has ended up being another decent year. I've always aimed to provide a +100 point portfolio from the strategies, and a combination of any of the two above has achieved that goal.
If backing all 4 to just £5 per point, that's been a +£1222.50p year, which more than pays for subs! (and leaves plenty left over to treat yourself)
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The community…
I’m blessed that plenty of my members are superb ‘tipsters’ and that some of them freely post their thoughts on a regular basis, with more joining in with each passing week.
Some of them have made many of us a lot of money and quite frankly could run their own service, so I’m lucky they’re still posting on my blog.
This month I’ll just highlight one of them, with the aim to touch on a few more over time…
Nick (or Member X as I refer to him in my tweets!)
It's fair to say that having first set foot on this blog in 2015, he's now somewhat set the tipping bar for us all to aspire to. I'm sure he wasn't this good when he first arrived on these shores... (maybe he was, but just kept it secret!) But i'd like to think he's a shining example of what's possible when you have a relentless drive to improve your own performance and get better at the game. At RTP we all have the chance to do that, if you so wish. Anyway, that's enough compliments for one day...
2018 results...
633 selections / 193 win or place / 30.5% win|place SR / +532.23 points / 44% ROI (from 1192 point outlay) / (all mainly 1 point EW bets)
or +£5323 to £10 per point
Nick is keeping better records as of 2019, for his own benefit as much as anyone else, including to 1 point win BFSP.
I only single him out as quite frankly he sets the tipping bar on both points profit and ROI, and is something for us all to aspire to. It's a quite remarkable effort given he has a 'day job' also. Keep up the good work my friend, I could do with you paying for another nice holiday or two of mine! :)
If you're not following him, you really should be. I doubt many in 2018 could match those figures in the horse racing space, esp ROI. Knowing him he'll be wanting to better 2018 and it wouldn't surprise me if he did. No pressure Nick.
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To finish…
Best of the Jumps Stats Quals
At the start of November 2018 I attempted to ‘up my tipping game’ when it came to my own stats content, and using the qualifiers as ‘starting points’ as a way in for further research. I’d like to add my own daily tipping element which brings in 100+ points a year. It’s also for personal satisfaction as I get a buzz from trying to ‘solve the puzzle’ in this way.
So far it’s ticking along fine…
121 bets / 29 wins / 57 places (inc wins) / +34.8 points (all 1 point win) / 24% win SR / 28% ROI
If I could repeat those stats every 121 bets I’d be happy, but time will tell! I'm keeping more detailed results as of the 1st Jan, including to BFSP.
With this approach I try and apply many of the ideas I first jotted down in my 'Magic Formula' article which you can read HERE>>>
This discusses an approach to finding bets using a 'starting point' and a focus on unexposed horses that that are 'doing something different' from recent runs, as a reason for why they may show more today. You may find that an interesting read.
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That’s 2018 done and dusted. You should never look back for too long in this game but there's always plenty to learn. I’d take a repeat of those 2018 jumps figures for sure, but with any luck I can build on them in 2019. That’s the aim. I can always do better, and i'll be trying my best to do just that.
Thanks for reading, and as ever if you have any questions, email back or post a comment on this blog post HERE>>>
Josh |
