Hello Friend
One of my members is off to Beverley today so I've done a 'through the card' for him, as i'm happy to do on request, time allowing. If you're attacking Beverley, hopefully the following musings may help. These 'through the cards' can often go one of two ways - 2/3/4 winners and a profitable day (or escaping even), or a complete blank! You have been warned :) I was looking for around 45 mins, which is the minimum time i'd spend on one handicap chase usually...
...And with my renewed focus on handicap chases, which is going well, I haven't looked at a flat race for a few weeks... right, that's enough of the caveats...
Beverley 'through the card'
(prices as of 9.30)
2.00 - Say It Simple - 11/2
2.30 - Doncaster Rosa - 11/2
3.00 - Siyahamba - 11/4
3.30 - Suwaan - 11/2
4.00 - Echo - 11/2
4.30 - Dreamseller 7/1 / Abies Hollow 8/1
5.05 - Luna Magic - 5/2
5.40 - Graceful Act - 8/1
Say It Simple... Fahey + Hanagan + Bev + 5f + 2 YO = 8/26, 19p, +16 in recent years, which is solid enough. I wasn't sure those with experience set a great standard, but the market may guide for this one. I wouldn't want to be wading in at 13/8 on the fav personally, but of course she'll bolt up now. Each-Way may be the play, as I suspect she's ready.
Doncaster Rosa... ah a nursery handicap... easy! This one has run as if he's crying out for at least 7f and it could be the making of him- the good to soft won't be an issue for him (although it should keep drying through the day) and he should race prominently. He may also come on for that last start and Jason H rode him on his debut here, when just beaten. He's doing something different, whereas the top 2 in the market are not really (bar handicap debut of course), but no distance moves etc, and they have high draws to overcome.
Siyahamba... as 11/4 favs go in selling handicaps, I thought he was solid! I think he's the only horse to have won a race in this line up, which tells you plenty. That win was 16 days ago over CD. That win may transform him, he's well drawn, will track the pace and be in the right spot, and is the one to beat. 'Through the cards' - which I do for those going racing, are not all about 'value' in my view- this is a one off trip to the races, and when we all go racing we do want to back the odd winner - so I never have a problem with what could be called a 'shorty'.
Suwaan... he may be another for the Each-Way category given his win record but he's been consistent lately, likes it here and from this draw I wonder if they will be more aggressive. He's raced prominently, led, and been held up in his races. Some bookies are paying 4 places and if he runs his race (not always a given) i'd be surprised if it wasn't money back at worst. I did think it was between him, Sheepscar L and Guardia S.
Echo... well you couldn't take on the 1/2 fav here with much confidence. He's unexposed, has the weight allowance, and is going the right way. He should be winning I think as the rest have many questions. However if he doesn't for whatever reason, Echo may be the one to side with for track-side change. He's a distance winner, the yard are in great form and he will appreciate this step back up in trip. He may track Jukebox Jive, pass him on the turn for home, and the fav may have to then get by him. Or, the fav hacks up hard held! :) But it could be a tactical affair, falsely run, and strange things can happen in that scenario.
Dreamseller... well, one of those races to throw darts and hope for the best. Many in here don't like winning that often. This one has a horrid draw to overcome - well both in here are not drawn the best - but he can get out and race prominently and the first 2f may decide his fate. He runs as if this extra 1.5f may bring about some improvement - that's the hope anyway. His his last race has produced two subsequent winners, inc the horse in front of him that day.
Abie's Hollow.. he does just look solid, and it's whether he can repeat/build on that run LTO which was decent enough. Again his fate may be decided early, and whether he can get out, across , get handy and not be stuck wide. Conditions look ideal for him, and he should go close, if he starts well.
Luna Magic... another 'shorty' here but he does look solid... a front runner (the only proper pace horse in this from what I can see) drawn in 1, who stays further. He could get loose on the front here, he's consistent, knows how to win, and will be the one to pass turning for home. I wasn't sure what would be passing him, so he'll do for me at 5/2. Is that overpriced? Probably not. Is he the most likely winner, yes, to my eyes. Is he the sort you should be backing consistently long term at the odds, in this race type? No. But, it's a trip to the races :)
Graceful Act... i'm anti backing 11 year olds+ in my race type of choice- handicap chases - but here I'm putting one up in a flat race! He may be another for the Each-Way brigade but I saw no reason why he wouldn't run his race here. His win LTO was his first in a long time, but that may transform him, as it can do for many horses. He will be close up, and may even try to lead, given he stays further. If he can hold a position in the front 3, he should keep on galloping. Maybe he will get outpaced but I couldn't work out what to take him on with. Bollin Ted is solid, but is on a career high mark and is open to attack from something with more in hand. I suppose you could just focus on the best jockeys, which are arguably Miss S Brotherton (John Caesar) and Simon Walker (Straight Ash) but in reality it's not a race to go mad on, and if you're not off to the races, probably one to leave!
Best of luck,
Josh
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