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5.15 Aintree: The Grand National
A Toi Phil - 1 point win - 80/1 (gen) (95.00 machine)
Monbeg Notorious - 1 point win - 80/1 (gen) (95.00 machine)
that's it for this race, 10.18, brief write up...
I'm just going double handed this year, in a race which in truth I have no strong opinions on and so I thought i'd have a couple of darts at monster priced ones. There is some logic, as i'll get on to. The only thing I am sure about is that Tiger Roll will be in the top 4/5 baring accidents and even with a bigger weight than last year, he is the one to beat for sure. He only just got home last year though and while it does look like he's improved again (incredibly) it's not impossible something can outstay him here, that may just have a bit more in hand/less weight on their back.
As always this is a race in which to take your own opinion and bar the last two renewals, there have been plenty of big priced winners/shock results in recent years. Maybe there will be again today.
To the race...
I looked at some stats pointers since the fences were changed, from the free report I sent out, and there were x12 6/6 stats.
Two horses hit all of those... Anibale Fly and A Toi Phil.
A Toi Phil... well he hits my stats profile (which in truth it's hard to be bullish about), is trained by Elliot, and arrives here in form. Horses that ran over hurdles LTO have a decent record in this and IF he takes to the fences / enjoys going back chasing (two big enough questions), he could cause a surprise here. I've no doubt he has the class to win this. Whether he has the stamina, i'm not certain, but he has been staying on in recent runs to suggest that it's well worth a go. Keeping Elliot and/or Gigginstown onside in these big marathon chases will continue to pay long term, for as long as they are involved in the game. Of course landing on the right ones is the tricky bit. I suspect Denis will be patient on him so he's going to need even more luck than you usually do in this. If he can creep around on this drying ground, that red cap may appear on the turn for home. I can dream anyway.
While I'm here I will mention Anibale Fly, who stats wise against my trends looks solid. I wasn't sure why he'd better last year's 4th, especially from 2lb higher and carrying top weight. I wasn't sure he'd improved from last season as such and this drying ground may be against him, but it will be fine. More so that he may get further back than ideal. Anyway, I wouldn't put anyone off at 16s as he should be thereabouts, if jumping/still has a jockey on come the last. He will be staying on, as with last year.
Monbeg Notorious...
I used 7 of my stats (6/6) to get a long list.. they included the two above, this one and Jury Duty / Ballyoptic / Up For Review / Dounikos / General Principle / Magic Of Light.
If my stats profile holds, which of course it probably wont, but if it does... then the winner is on that list somewhere.
MonBeg.... well he's another who has the class for this, I think. He has some solid enough form in the book, and a decent big field handicap chase win to his name. By his trainer's own admission he's just a moody sort, and they're not sure how he will run from race to race. Hence you want a price, and hence I won't be shocked if he's never sighted. On jockey bookings he's clearly way down the pecking order but Sean Bowen is very good as we know, and if he can he will try and be prominent. These fences can have a strange impact on horses- some relish them, and bound along having the time of their lives. That may well happen with this one today, it may not! At least he arrives on the back of his best run for some time, well on RPR his best run since Feb 18, and he was going forward at the line there. You never know.
Obviously it's more than likely I haven't even mentioned the winner in this race. It's a race to sit back and enjoy, and not one I like to be dogmatic on. The closest i've come with 'official' tips is a 25/1 second, by a nose. Painful. So, maybe take those two with a pinch of salt. :)
Best of luck with your fancies, as always,
Josh
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