First up is today's 'Daily Digest' from the members' post. Time allowing I do my best to flick through some of the daily content (stats quals, Adam Norman's flagged horses), using it as a 'way in' and attempting to say something useful/insightful.
You can find today's musings below. After that you can find a stats angle for Jeremy Scott's chasers, research inspired by his 22/1 winner at Exeter last week. If you like your trainer micro angles, it's worth noting down.
Daily Digest
Just a focus on Lingfield today, using the two stats qualifiers as a 'way in' to try and say something useful/interesting, whether relevant to these races or moving forwards (esp any trainer form flags etc)
Lingfield
1.30 - Istorius 9/4- a 'December angle' qualifier, in what is an atrocious race. This is probably much weaker than his run LTO, where he showed a bit more. If your horse can't go close in a contest like this I'm not sure where you go next. Price/value is subjective and I'll leave it to you whether 9/4 here is to your liking.
Venetia's in fine form of course, 9/28, 14p, +8 in the last 14 days, 64% rivals beaten. Consistent for a good 4-7 weeks now. In class 5 handicap chases at Lingfield in the last 5 years... 3/5,4p, +5.
This 5YO is having just his 3rd chase start and he did show more LTO. It could be significant that Charlie jumps on for the first time over fences. They've been patient the last twice, maybe more focussed on getting him jumping/building up race experience. I wouldn't be shocked if we saw different tactics today, a more prominent ride. But it's woeful stuff. I'm sure he'll show himself to be better than this mark at some point.
3.30 -
This looks a fascinating little contest, a bit more quality than the 1.30 above, for all same grade.
Elisezmoi - a TTP qualifier, plenty of guesswork required. A 9 race maiden, on paper it's hard to get a grip on what quality he has, if any. The odd glimpse but to date he's always been a weak finisher. No surprise he had a wind op before his last run/seasonal return, weakening quickly from 2 out. Maybe he'll now leave that behind, hard to know. The market may or may not guide. No problems with the yard form. His opening handicap mark in Nov 2019 was 115, 92 here now. They may find the key one day but he could just be moderate.
Of the rest... well Gallic Geordie bolted up here LTO, the 3rd has won since, and he's bolted up here in heavy before. If you did want to play in the race/oppose him, it 'could' be significant that both his wins have come after breaks/when fresh - is there something to that, or not? Maybe he won't back it up. If he does, he's the one to beat.
There are two very well handicapped chasers in this who could bounce back (and will do at some point this season I suspect) -
Ardmayle for Ali Stronge, 5/1 - 2nd run of the season, 2nd run after a wind op and doing a few things differently as a reason for improvement today - drops back 4f in trip here and drops in class. Ran well for a long way LTO also. 3/11 over fences, his last win was around Sandown in March 2019, a Class 3, off 118. Maybe he's just regressed but if they ever got him back to something like his best (wind op the key?), he'd win with his head in his chest off 105. He's a CD winner also, this may well have been a plan. The winner of his last race has since won again, so substance there, only beaten 10l. I can see why this one is being nibbled at. The excellent James Bowen in the saddle.
Little Light -15/2 she's also interesting, whether or not for today, we shall see. Aged only 7. Lucy Wadham in fine form as we know, (well done to those of you who landed on the right one yesterday down in the comments, an enjoyable watch! First time Visor did the job) 4/13,7p in the last 14 days, 3/9, 5p with Bryony. (they also team up in the 2pm with Miss Heritage)
This one's mark is tumbling, possibly regressive. BUT, is the ground vital? Her last win was in March 2020, around Southwell, a C4, in heavy off 117. (98 here today)
She hasn't raced over 16f in heavy since. That was in 1st blinkers, so could just be a thinker, but mark went up to low 120s after that. She was thrown into some C2s. She did have a wind op before this season, 3rd run back, gets her ground. Maybe today is the day, but one for the 'heavy ground' notebook, as her time may not be far away on next 1-3 starts in hock deep heavy, esp if another change of headgear say.
Both of those are chucked in against old form, they both can't win today of course, maybe neither will, but both worth tracking I suspect given their marks, past ability and the fact they've shown a bit more recently. If the fav does 'bounce' (or has to be fresh) on a relatively quick glance i'd fancy one of those two to take this I think. War Call is inexperienced, chase debut, but 'could be anything', Postman an 11 race chase maiden (did win over timber)...
Seamus Mullins in form at least, a yard to keep an eye on, 1/13,8p last 14 days, 61% rivals beaten, deserves some more winners soon as they are going well. 3 runners on todays card.
Do with that little lot as you please, even if just reading, nodding, and getting on with the Xmas shopping! :)
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I added the below in a members' post on 17th Dec, a day after playing in a race at Exeter with two horses, one ran fine, the other didn't, but I always try and take something away from an unbacked winner... (16th Dec De Young Warrior 22/1, 1.40 Exeter)
Jeremy Scott Micro Angle
Re-cap... I may wish I landed on the following before the 1.40 at Exeter but such is life! Huntsmans Jog has run his race again and I lived in hope for most of the race, at one stage thinking he was just going to keep going while everything else plugged on, even after the last I wasn't sure if he'd go forward again. He clearly needs plenty to drop right, hopefully he gets his head in front again somewhere but doubt I'll be on. If he had the winner's attitude, he may well have built up enough of a lead from 3 out, alas. Arian was PU, nothing to report there. She does have more chase wins in here. Captain Tommy ran better than at Wincanton, I can't work him out really. He was keen enough and is on a workable mark, those Bangor efforts last season and his Uttox win in May indicating something should drop his way again. Maybe the return of some headgear would help.
What of De Young Warrior... well he wasn't impossible to find, for all I wasn't that close this time. The race had a strange feel where a large chunk had big questions on recent evidence and for conditions. And so did he, but he was 22s-25s. He was a 5 race maiden, this just his 6th start, no Point to Point form to help and I thought the yard was cold! They nearly had a treble on the day, improving on the 0/18,2p from the previous 30 days. Doh. David N had never ridden for the yard either from what I could see. Just a bit too much educated guessing for me this time (inc fitness also), but you do have to think outside the box in this game. If you watch his hurdle runs back you can see he was always going to be a chaser, massive horse. All of his form had worked out well, he'd never run a bad race to date (always 'staying on') numerous subsequent winners everywhere, suggesting his mark of 118 was workable - and of course open to natural improvement for going chasing. Still, some effort from the horse (and trainer, and jockey) given his inexperience, 16 rivals and ridden cold/behind horses. He could have easily got an early fence wrong, knocked his confidence and gone backwards, but he generally pinged them and enjoyed it. He kept galloping and looks as though he'll get much further. Good ride also and well done to Mr Scott for getting him a1. Apparently the horse doesn't like travelling too far from home, which is something to keep an eye on. Maybe he'll become an Exeter specialist. There's loads more to come from him. Jonjo will be happy with his one in 2nd, he's clearly going to be winning chases and generally jumped well, big weight, solid effort.
I probably needed some Point form or at least Scott to be in evident 'red hot' form to get closer, or maybe some sort of stats angle as a 'way in... and with that in mind I had a dig in HorseRaceBase after the race...
- Jeremy Scott
- Handicap Chase (standard, not Novice)
- Horse Aged 8
- Horse had 0-6 chase runs
- Any odds
- 2010-
54 bets / 15 wins / 26p / 28% sr / +43 SP / +57 BFSP / BFAE 1.59
Those stats do not include De Young Warrior.
Within those stats of some interest... of those with 0 career wins.. 6/16, 8p +41
Races up to 3m only... 12/31, 17p, +66 BFSP.
Those making chase debut were 1/1. Now 2/2.
Those returning 181+ days... 3/4,4p... now 4/5,5p. Bugger.
Jeremy is a very good trainer and generally gets the best out of what he has, and chasers aged 8 appears to be the sweet-spot for him. He has winners all ages of course but nothing else systematically .. all other ages within the angle above...17/107, 41p, +5 BFSP, BFAE 1.03.
That micro may well keep ticking over in the yeas ahead and with any luck I won't miss the next winner. It's fair to say the yard are now in form, and worth keeping an eye on in the coming weeks, having seemingly been 'cold'. Easy game this :)
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That's all for this free email, hopefully something useful there for you,
All the best,
Josh
