Good Morning Friend

I hope you've had a great week. Below are a few pointers for the 2.40 Kempton - The Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle, which may help those of you still deliberating. 

What follows is my trends profile, trainer pointers, my shortlist against this trends profile and the horses representing trainers who've won the race previously. 

It looks as competitive as ever and the sort of race I don't mind having a fun interest in, but no more - if you've a strong view on this sort of race, you're braver than me.  

Using my shortlist below I've had a nibble on Earth Lord at 20s on Betfair for interest. We shall see if my trends shortlist holds up (it may not do of course) and if I've landed on the right one. In any case, they may help you find the winner... my trends shortlists and trainer lists often include the winner, just a case of landing on the right one...

2.40 Kempton – Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle

12/180, 41p

12/12 had placed at least once last two starts (had not: 0/49, 4p)

12/12 had 1-3 runs prev 90 days (had not: 0/29,3p)

12/12 had 8< runs in handicap hurdles (9+ : 0/35, 5p) (11/12 had 5<)

12-12 had 0-2 hurdle wins (did not: 0/75, 13p)

• 1: 1/47, 7p
• 2: 11/58, 21p, +108 BFSP

12/12 had 0-1 handicap hurdle wins (2+ : 0/44, 9p)

11/12 highest class career win Class 3, 2 or Listed (was not: 1/65, 11p)

11/12 had 0-1 handicap wins (2+ : 1/63, 13p)

10/12 sent off 9/1 or shorter SP (10/59, 22p) (bigger: 2/121, 19p, inc 2 of last 3)

10/12 had 2-4 career wins (10/104, 26p) (had not: 2/76, 15p)

9/12 had 9 or fewer career starts (9/81,32p)

Trainers

• N Williams: 3/5, 3p
• N Henderson: 3/16, 5p
• P Nicholls: 2/14,6p
• X1: J Candlish, E Lavelle, A Turnell, V Williams

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Applying the trends

2.40 Kempton

Looking at a profile of 1-3 runs in prev 90 days, horse had placed at least once last two starts, 0-2 hurdle wins, 0-1 handicap hurdle wins would point to 12/12 (12/67 runners, 23p, +103 BFSP) and IF upholding, would point to four horses…

Gelino Bellow, Earth Lord, Cobblers Dream, On My Command

All bar Gelino had 2 hurdle wins only, which is a ‘sweet spot’ as per stats above. All four have had 8< runs in handicap hurdles.

The market has been a reliable guide in recent years, 9/1< as per above but the odd biggie does go in.

Ignoring all the other trends, this is just a list of all those with 2 hurdle wins only…

Earth Lord, Green Book, Cobblers Dream, On My Command, Monte Cristo, Press Your Luck, Bold Plan

Trainers (to have won race prev 12 years/with runners)

• Maries Rock , Monte Cristo, Call Me Lord
• Gelino Bello 
• Green Book

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All the best, 

Josh