Hello Friend
I'm away on holiday this week but I couldn't resist a go at the Kerry National - time will tell whether I should have just had a lay in!
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Free Chase Tips
4.15 Listowel
Ravenhill - 1 point win - 8/1 (gen)
Icantsay - 1 point win - 25/1 (bet365/Lad/BV/Coral)
as of 08.03 when posted on blog..
Ravenhill- I thought this unexposed handicap chaser was worth a go in here, on the back of his decent effort in the Galway Plate. That was a very good renewal to my eyes and for one so inexperienced he did well to get so close, staying on. He was hampered early there and made the odd niggly error but with Denis back on, hopefully he can creep away and deliver him to perfection. He's ridden him before and was aggressive so it will be interesting to see what they do with him. This trip could bring out more. He's unproven on slower ground, if the rain does set in, however it's more an unknown, and at 8s I thought that was just about ok to take a chance, esp given his profile/trainer and that run LTO
Icantsay - I thought this CD winner was a lively outsider in this and they will try and be aggressive on him. Hopefully he can build up a lead and just keep rolling. He won't mind what the ground does and ran well over fences two starts back. He has some solid form in chases when running his race and I thought he looked interesting at the odds, especially given his running style. I think his hurdle run LTO can be ignored. If he ran as he did at Galway, he'd make this price look far too big.
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As always in a race like this there are dangers everywhere - I thought Black Scorpion looked interesting to a point if getting in, however the inexperienced jockey put me off slightly, esp for one who's occasionally been iffy at his fences. Some Neck may outrun his price if taking to blinkers, and Pravalaguna could go well if her jumping holds in a race of this nature - as could Barra. Her confidence appears to have been hit after that fall two starts back, when she was going to bolt up. If she got back to that level she's be interesting to a point, albeit I thought it an odd jockey booking (first ride for Elliot I think), but he's a decent claimer. 33s was probably a tad insulting.
I should mention Movewiththetimes who could blow this lot away - its just whether his jumping holds I think - he was making smooth headway in the Galway Plate before coming down, and had a confidence boosting win LTO. He is the right fav given his profile I think, but does also have stamina to prove. I think he's worth taking on at the prices.
Best of luck with whatever you fancy,
Josh
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