Good Morning, Friend,

I'm about to rush out the door to Kempton to meet up with the RTP Syndicate gang, 20 or so attending with guests. Provided Kaleb and Jack come home safe, it will be a great day. (well, the weather is awful!)

Below you can find my 'through the card', which was relatively rushed but maybe instinct will win the day. Sometimes is best not over-thinking, we shall see. Of course I spent the most time on the 1.30 (+ the Classic Chase, and Kaleb's race), so we know what happens now!

Kempton ‘through the card’

12.20 – Virtuoso – 13/2

12.55 – Makinyourmindup – 8/11

1.30 – Percussion – 6/1 (tip)

2.05 – Pic DOrhy – 11/8

2.40 – Outlaw Peter – 13/2

3.15 – Zhiguli – 9/2

3.50 – Kaleb – 7/2

Notes…

The ground could be anything here, with plenty of rain around – if it’s a proper bog, even for Kempton standards, that could lead to some strange results, we shall see. This could be the deepest ground many horses today have ever run in, we shall see who handles it best…

Virtuoso – the top two in the market probably have this between them, but proper soft ground is a question, perhaps an unknown. The favs class, fitness, exp may well get him through easily. I just noted that McCain’s horse had some ok for on soft/heavy on the flat, which could count for something. He may not be able to jump of course, or keep up, but hurdles can occasionally transform moderate flat horses, so you never know.

Makinyourmindup – not a price I’ll be playing at but I didn’t see a reason to oppose, and even if I did, I wasn’t sure what with! One for placepots or muggy multiples, although they usually end in tears.

Percussion – a 'tip' - I just thought he looked a big price here based on his last two runs at Aintree, which were fine efforts – if indeed they have thoughts of The Grand National this season, or next (based on that fine Becher run), then he does need to be climbing up the ratings so hopefully he’ll be trying his best. He was a work in progress last season, far too keen at times and not getting home, hence why his form looks so ‘in and out’, to my eyes anyway. When he was good/settled, he was very good, and the CP have helped him also. He’s lobbed along just fine so far this season, in two deeper races than this I think, and with any luck he can jump prominently and lob along. I think softer ground is fine for him, maybe more of an unknown but he won at Fontwell when it was awful ground, all of them nearly stopping to a walk. He has guts. There’s a niggle this CD could be sharp enough, even in soft, but he has a progressive profile and there should be more to come. His trainer is in fine form and hopefully Gavin can bundle him out and hold a position. If he runs his race, he will be staying on dourly from 2 out, and he’s a fine jumper at his best. I just thought 6s or so looked too big.

I think the main danger is Tile Tapper, a LTO losing tip at 14s, and had he jumped better up the straight he may have given Remastered more to think about. Pipe’s chaser is a fine yardstick and it could be that form is just much the best here, and a repeat/improvement (esp if jumping better) is enough to get the job done. I’ll cope at 2s.

I didn’t really like the others. Enrilo would be a tad irksome after capsizing LTO when for me he was travelling like the winner, even though some way out. He’s now out to 7s, hopefully a good sign that today isn’t the day, but who knows. The fear is the ground with him, but it’s maybe more of an unknown. Paul has said this is a stepping stone to Spring targets, whatever they may be (back to Sandown?) but that doesn’t mean this one won’t hack up here. Hopefully he gets stuck in the mud.

Pic DOrhy – hopefully Nicholls has a great day at Kempton. Again, I didn’t really see a reason to oppose. I suppose proper soft is a question, but more an unknown, and he has some ok form on it. He looks to be improving, will bounce out handy, and just looks the one to beat to me. I didn’t want to oppose him either, for all maybe too short for single purposes, even when trackside.

Outlaw Peter – another for Nicholls. This race is a nightmare. I have used my trends profile as some sort of guide, and this one ticks a lot of boxes. He looks a special horse in the making if LTO is anything to go by, for all a moderate enough race, but so impressive. They were thinking about The Challow with him, but had another star in the making for that, and i find it interesting that they’ve decided to exploit this handicap mark instead, as there are other graded novice options. He could have run at Warwick today for example. He has to prove this sort of scenario is fine for him, again, inc proper soft, but his Irish bumper form gives hope and he may relish it. I haven’t been through all runners in much depth here, and highly likely I’ve missed the winner! It’s that sort of race.

Zhiguli – if this turns into a bog, he will relish it. He’s lightly raced as a chaser with more to come at some point. He does have to leave behind his return run of course, but they’ve given him a bit of time and he had an excuse, having burst a blood vessel I believe. He will relish conditions, which is a question for a few in here, and there’s more to come this season. He’ll do for me here, in what does look an open enough handicap, moderate enough for the grade.

Kaleb – our Syndicate will be out in force, around 20 of us, with guests, track-side, to cheer him on. This will be the softest ground he’s ever run on, but we think he’ll be fine on it (provided it isn’t horrendous come race time, then it’s anyone’s guess) and could well improve for it. Haydock was soft, but probably not as soft as this will be. In any case, he’s been flying at form, will be ridden forward, his Haydock race is working out very well, and he has many more wins in him. Just a case of when, hopefully starting today! He will stay further, which could help in conditions. We expect him to go close, if running his race. The Thomas horse looks the main danger, as does Jonjo’s if he’s fit/here to run his race.

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Good Luck with any bets,

Josh