Hello Friend
I hope you had a great weekend. It looks as though we may be about to get some sort of summer, which would be a welcome change.
I have written a new 'diary post'. Something a bit different that I have repeated below. You can also read this on the blog HERE>>>
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Josh’s Weekly Diary: NOT racing to profit
Below is something new for the blog – a weekly diary in the traditional sense.
My thoughts, reflections, opinions and general musings on all things racing/blogging. And maybe occasionally some non-racing thoughts. This is my attempt to entertain, inform, reflect, self-deprecate and generally provide something that you may enjoy reading. You may not of course, but then I am sure you will vote with your eyes. With any luck I will enjoy writing it also. A pleasant distraction from racing analysis.
I am no Shakespeare and my English is not the best so I would prefer if you wordsmiths out there didn’t publicly mark my efforts. I should have read more as a child. I'm no Boris, in more ways than one :)
There is no structure as such, no planning. I am hoping things come into my head as I write. Some weeks there may be more to say than others. In general I suspect I will publish these on a Tuesday morning.
I hope you like what follows, and if not, do say so.
Let’s get to it…
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A tweet from Richard (following Germany Calling’s run)
‘poor run continues I’m nearly over the cliff’
Richard, a keen reader of the blog, kicked off a polite conversation with the above tweet. Sadly for him he started following after the 'golden period' of Dec/Jan/Feb and I doubt he is alone...
My Tips…I called this blog Racing to Profit, in one of my more inspired moments of creativity. Well, if you stumbled across this blog from around February/March time you would be tempted to sue me for miss-selling. It has been tough recently –well, over three months of not really going anywhere.
No, let me rephrase. Losing. Going backwards. NOT, racing to profit.
Stumbling, like a teenage drunk at a July Course Kaiser Chief’s gig, away from profit.
I have looked at the results, staring at them in my darker moments of contemplation. I have given back 8.5 points in July to date. We are on +98 points for the year. At the end of February we were on 113 points. At the end of April, 124 points.
So, losses of 15.5 points, or 26 points, since those heady days. More than manageable. Of more concern perhaps is that I hit a high of +138 points. Giving back 40 points is concerning. This is betting, and why a decent bank is required. ( I have always said 80-100 points, and in that context, the panic station is still in the distance)
But, I would understand if many have lost faith,(if they ever had it) packed up their bags, and diverted their eyes to greener online pastures. Many have. If you have kept the faith, then thanks. It is appreciated. You have to look forward in this game, with head held high and brimming self-belief. Without that, you are done.
A comparison…well I did have a chat with Gary Priestley just to provide some context. A few days ago he hit a losing run of -43 points. He had a few new followers before that run came. Some made their thoughts more than clear. Gary correctly told them to get stuffed. Good on him.
This, of course, was ended abruptly by a few decent priced winners and that run is somewhat forgotten. Maybe that is where our comparison ends. I don’t have his massive bank of profits to fall on, or multiple years of continued success. I really do need some winners. But I won’t force it.
Hopefully the ‘stats/angles of interest’ section gives some hope that I haven’t lost all ability to read a horse race/spot a decent priced bet.
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New Eyes, please…
Perhaps my recent trip to the opticians explains it. It has been over 2 years since I bought my current glasses and, unsurprisingly to me, my eyes have deteriorated again. Apparently they are still growing/changing shape. That may end by the time I am 30, which is creeping up. Come the 10th of August that milestone will be three years away. I don't like how quickly time is going, and I believe it only gets worse.
New eyes don’t come cheap either at £480 for two pairs (one of which is half price). Yes, they are designer. But I am still single, and you have to try all the tricks! I am hoping I can claim some of that against my tax, just to lessen the blow a bit. My eyes had better not grow again anytime soon.
These new lenses arrive on the 24th July. If my form picks up after that, you will know why. And if not, I will be asking a refund. :)
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Pontefract….is a lovely track, and if you haven’t been, I would recommend it. With a train station only a 5 minute walk away, it is very easy to get to. You get a good look of the horses pre-race, and track-side. The big screen helps also. The place has a warm, friendly feel.
There is also a 'gambling' shed as I will call it, sponsored by Betfred it would seem. Screens everywhere. That's where those folk go who paid £15 to get in, and then spend the afternoon betting on the greyhounds. There were quite a few of them! Albeit I did watch Langley Vale cling onto victory there in a C6 all-weather handicap. So, I shouldn't be judging.
Beer could be cheaper – not much change out of a tenner for two pints of bitter. Maybe it’s something to do with The Northern Powerhouse, who knows. Liverpool is getting pricey as well. I mean we have our fair share of trendy bars, serving ‘craft beer’. It’s bloody nice, but at £6 per pint, it ought to be!
I have now been twice and backed 3x 16/1 winners on the first visit, and two at 8/1 on the last visit. My new favourite track! I could do with finding some like that on these pages, as I'm sure you would agree.
Where should I visit next…?
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When is 6/1 value?
It is hard not to question your approach when a) you are having the troubles I am at present b) 6/1 shots somewhat bolt up like 6/4 shots in decent races – that you have ‘dismissed’ in part, on price grounds.
Orion’s Bow…somewhat bolted up at Hamilton- in form, progressive, well drawn – he won like a potential group horse and like a horse who you would have been pleased to back at 6/1. I didn’t and I wasn’t close to really. Maybe that is the problem. Too easily dismissed. I mean horses can't win 5 in a row can they??
He hadn’t proven he couldn’t win on the ground and the jockey said something interesting – on breeding he said that it wasn’t a massive concern and more pertinently for me was the comment that he ‘wasn’t ready’ when previously trying soft. Now in form, and having matured/gained more experience, it posed no problems to him here. He out-classed them and sluiced through the mud. Wins like that always make you ponder.
Long House Hall… fairly bolted up at Market Rasen – another 6/1 shot who you would have been pleased to back. I had reasons why I was against him. My fears about being held-up were unfounded – they went a decent pace which set it up more for a closer- and he clearly has ability. Doh. The great value judge that is Tony Calvin, fancied him, and thought 6s was fair.
Clearly, this is an area I need to improve on. And I know I have said that before.
I will just leave you with his comments from his Betfair Blog, that are worth absorbing… (the Coral Cup point smacked me in the face as something I may have overlooked.)
“But I am going to take him on to small-stakes with Long House Hall at 7.00 or bigger in the 14:45.
The case for him is simple. He ran a good trial for this race when fourth over 2m4f at Uttoxeter last time, the step up in trip will suit, the ground should present no issues and he is on an attractive mark.
He is unexposed over fences, having just his fourth chase start here, is a course winner and, if translating the form that he showed when second in the Coral Cup off just a 3lb lower mark in March, then I think he is weighted to go very close.”
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And finally…
Amanda Perret
Watch her All-Weather runners that didn’t run on the AW LTO… One of those micro systems that I wish I had been following on the blog this year. This one was highlighted on the blog some time ago
Amanda Perret/All-Weather Handicaps/NOT All-Weather LTO (so flat turf or NH)/ running at the same class, or up 1 class/ 12/1 or shorter. (1/25, 4 places above 12/1, 1x 20/1 winner)
Since 2010…
82 bets / 25 wins / 37 places / 30% sr/ +84 SP / +106 BFSP / AE 1.99
She was 1/12, 2 places in 2015, so I thought a watching brief this year. Well, her 2016 stats are 8 bets / 4 wins / 5 places / 50% sr / +31 SP / +40 points BFSP.
Boll*cks.
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Back next week,
Josh
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Today's blog post has been complete for a while now, and you can read that HERE>>> |
