Good Morning Friend,

I hope you've had a good week or so. I've been in Galway for a friends stag do and didn't have much to say, so didn't bother emailing you.

Tomorrow I'll send out my 'Glorious Goodwood Trainer & Jockeys' pointers - well, four trainers and one jockey to keep an eye on, hopefully they do as well as my Newmarket July Festival pointers. That post will be up on the blog after I've sent this email, for those who can't wait.

In the meantime...

Something from today's 'Racing Chat' on my blog that you may find interesting...

Racing Chat

3.55 Lingfield – Rampoldi Plan – 5/1

I’ve spent an hour trying to find something useful to say with these flat/aw cards and that indeed sparks my own enthusiasm, which is fine in bigger flat races/festivals, but generally waning with this lower class small field nonsense, which litters the days play yet again. (in truth the return of the 'winter' jumps can't come soon enough)

Anyway, I thought i’d dive to the Geegeez ‘Fast Finishers’ report which maybe I should focus on more as I do find sectional times fascinating. (and I’ve much to learn)

In effect Matt has created a report which highlights horses whose performance can be ‘upgraded’ based on how the race was run/how the horse ran/performed through said race. Were they inconvenienced by how the race played out? Were they poorly positioned, got going too late, did too much too soon, would have appreciated a stronger pace etc etc. Sectional times can help try to answer some of those questions. Of course, being UK racing, said data is unavailable across all racecourses in the same format/from the same company, and like much else is a bit of a mess. One day. However, still useful.

Rampoldi Plan is a good example (i hope!) and while this is better explained with a video, and I’ve a bit to learn, I’ll write for now…

He entered Matt’s report with a sectional upgrade at Wolves, five starts ago in his maiden where he ran the final 2f in a dash, quicker than the 6 horses in front of him, three of whom have won since. His problem was that he was last when the sprint kicked. If a horse has the ability to quicken off a slow pace, it would generally suggest they have ‘some’ ability and it can then be a question of when, finding the right trip, grade, competing in a truly run race, or indeed being better positioned when the sprint kicks in. He was outpaced over that 7f and was tenderly handled late on.

He has been a bit buzzy to date and I can see why they’ve been holding him up, to try and teach him how to settle/race efficiently. There may well come a point where they go sod it and bomb him forward. (maybe today)

In the four races since, much the same thing has happened, he’s been held onto and has made rapid headway in the latter stages, but often when the leaders have got first run on him, having been positioned further forward. He did very nearly win at Notts, looked to have a fine attitude, coming from further back than the winner, front two clear. At Salisbury, another small field and poss on ground too firm, he ran a decent 2nd. That was a classified stakes – he was rated 70, as was the winner. However with jockey claims, he was giving said winner 12lb – in that context it was a fine run.

And then we get to his last race here 25 days ago, over this CD. It was another sectional upgrade… 8 runners, he was held up again off a dawdling pace, they didn’t go very quick at all, and yep it turned into a sprint again. He finished a staying on 4th, but ran the final 2f in a quicker time than the three horses in front of him – but of course he started his sprint from further back. Ocean Ruler was ahead of him that day having led/set the pace, re-opposes here, but he had track position.

For the final 3f, Ocean Ruler ran it in 33.86 seconds. Rampoldi Plan ran it in 33.56 seconds. 1 second = 6 lengths for Flat horses (on good) and AW, which at 0.3 a second quicker, equates to 1.8 lengths. So, you could surmise that had those two been upsides at 3f out, Rampoldi Plan may well have finished 1.8l ahead of him. Of course, it’s rarely that simple, had Rampoldi been forced forwards sooner he may have blown a gasket and faded in the final furlong, but it helps demonstrate the importance of how a race is run and track position, to the final result.

On a different day, and in different conditions/race set up, Rampoldi would finish ahead of Ocean Ruler, on that evidence anyway.

That race was a 3YO only handicap with some in form, unexposed horses in opposition. This is his first go in a 3YO+ handicap, up against some more exposed horses (as well as some other 3YOs) and receiving weight from his elders. That may well help him here.

David Probert (sponsored by Geegeez) also gets a go for the first time and I’d contend he’s quite an upgrade on Thomas Greatrex, even more so around here. He’s 5/29, 9p when riding for King in the last year.

To my eyes...what this horse needs is one of two things…

He either needs to race closer to the pace (if able to settle) and if it’s a dawdle, kick in the turbos – the sectionals of recent efforts suggests he has the change of gear to cause damage, and at this level/from this mark. But he needs to be closer to the pace when the turbo kicks in.

OR he needs a stronger pace/more even gallop, not the crawls>sprints which he has been running in. If they keep holding him up, the stronger the pace the better, as he can settle and then fly home, with those in front slowing down having done too much.

When he does either of the two/or gets said conditions, he will be winning I think, he’s shown more than enough to suggest this mark of 70 is workable and he has some ability, combined with a good attitude. A repeat of that Notts effort should win him a race at some point, but he's open to improvement.

I’ll be honest, I haven’t had time to properly go through the opposition, maybe I’ll leave that to you!

There are a couple of pace angles in this and hopefully they may go hard enough but it could be another so so run affair. It will be interesting if David tries to settle him closer to the pace.

Like I said, he has shown ability given how the races have been run/where he’s been positioned, it’s just when everything drops right I think.

Hopefully having written all that he makes 5s look solid, but whatever he does he’s one for the notebook – if not today, maybe when getting a much bigger field and a more galloping track. But there are races to be won with him, even more so when he learns to drop his head.

One for the notebook based on his recent sectional times/efforts and his overall unexposed profile.

With any luck there’s something of interest there,

GL with any bets,

Josh