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In today's email i'm going to share with you a report from my members' club which details every horse that i've tipped since 1st May and a few other eye catchers. Around 40 or so in total. The hope is that they may be source of future profits - well, based on the last few weeks, they look likely to be.
Before that though, if you missed the free World Cup Best Bets report from Paul Ruffy, you can read that email HERE>>>, or head straight HERE>>>
Over 400 of you have taken a look, so fingers crossed for some nice returns and plenty of fun along the way.
Back to my Notebook report and my tipping...
What I call my 'notes' horses in section 2 of my members' posts are having a testing time of it at the moment. I was due a bad run. From the 1st of September to end of April I tipped around +290 points of profit, at a greater than 60% return on investment. +190 points of that was from Day 1 of Cheltenham through to the end of Punchestown, +80 points of that on the free posts. I
t's fair to say the betting gods are having their revenge. My 'notes' tips for 2018 are now on -6, hitting a high of +24 a couple of weeks back. I have backed a couple of winners in that time but have lost 30 points or so at the moment.
That's racing and value punting and doesn't bother me, given the historical context. My winning SR is always in the 9-15% region, and as such that means hefty losing runs, but I only care for long term profit.
However, my performance is bugging me and the only way to improve when on a losing run is to reflect on what you can do better and work harder.
One potential source of profits is following my recent losing tips. This is something we can all do with our bets. My tips within the members club are generally based on my stats qualifiers within the daily content, as a 'way in'. I try and focus on unexposed handicappers that are doing something different, and who in theory should prove themselves to be well handicapped at some point.
I have developed the habit of tipping them one to three runs too soon! One of my members has tracked my losing tips since the 21st May, within the comments, on the basis of 'three strikes and you're out, stop at a winner'.
In that time they are:
21 bets (old losing tips)/ 5 wins / +33 points to morning odds / +13 to BFSP.
Having flicked through to mid April, there were three more winners to add to that, that all won on their next start after being tipped, at 9/1, 9/1 and 25/1. There have been a handful of losers also. That is around +65-70 points of profit I have left sitting there, since mid April!
With that in mind, yesterday I pulled my finger out and added around 96 horses to my geegeez tracker, including all 40 or so in the report below.
(it's in note form, quite simple...just a list of horses + my notes)
You may wish to add the horses to any trackers.
This may be worth reading in conjunction with my 'Magic Formula' report (a way to attack racing/betting) which you can read HERE>>>
I will be tracking and highlighting all of these horses within my daily Members' posts, when they next run- on the 'three runs and you're out/stop at a winner' rule. It may be that they are worth just following blind for their next three starts after I have tipped them, stopping if they win. They may not be!
However, of more importance is using them as another 'way in' and starting point. Most are unexposed or have certain ideal conditions, many in that report may want softer ground and may come to life at the back end of the season. I will be looking to see if they are 'doing something different' from their recent starts and looking for reasons why today 'could be' the day.
Focusing on losing tips, and tracking them, clearly isn't rocket science, but it's something i've been useless at, and I need to up my game. Leaving 70 odd points profit sat there in the last 6 weeks or so isn't a great feeling, especially when I have done all the work on the horse previously.
So, the lesson I suppose, is to track any recent bets you have struck, especially if you are focusing on less exposed horses, that you hope will improve at some point.
It may be that this approach doesn't work, but there is plenty of logic there and i'll be trying my best to profit from my old tips as best I can. We shall see how I get on and whether this is a valid approach or not.
By all means add those horses to trackers above and use the notes as you please. This will be the only Notebook report I share this year based on my members' tips, I don't think the members' will be too happy if I send out any more for free. But with any luck I may actually start tipping more winners!
With any luck you can take something of use from it.
Don't forget, you can see how they get on over the next 7 weeks, along with any other tips, by taking a a £7 trial of my Members' Club (for 7 weeks). There is plenty more besides such content, and the systematic strategies are ticking along just fine.
All the best, Josh
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