I hope you're having a decent week. I've been a little quieter than usual on the emails for all that some respite was required. I've been away up in Liverpool for the past week, catching up with old friends. The older readers among you will know I trekked up there from Suffolk in 2007 to university, aged 18. I ended up staying for 13 years, moving back down south last year. Great memories. It's a fantastic, vibrant city and a must visit. It was good to get away.
On days like today when there's no 3m+ jumps action for me to get stuck into I like to flag a few 'Flat Pointers' for my members, to read, absorb or ignore as they please. That's a new introduction this summer but they've gone down well I think and something I'll look to carry over into the winter.
Today I've focussed on Hamilton, and you can find my musings below... (there's also an update on our girl Really Super at the bottom)
Flat Pointers
A trip to Hamilton this evening...
First up, there's the Scottish Steward's Cup at 19.30. Below are a list of horses representing trainers who've won the race at least once in last 13 renewals (as per Horse Race Base), they may be worth a second glance, on the basis the trainer will be wanting to win it again/knows the sort required to do so etc
- Meraas (last year's winner), Desert Safari
- Rathbone
- Staxton, Music Society
And now a brief focus on Kevin Ryan...
He's got two runners on the card (18.20, 19.30) and I did use Rathbone as my way in, more on him shortly. But..
Kevin Ryan / Hamilton / All runners sent off 13/2 or shorter SP / 2018 >
51 bets / 18 wins / 29p / 35% sr / +12 SP / +20 BFSP / BFAE 1.31
From within the stats above, when said horses is running over 5-6 furlongs (as both of his are this evening)
36 bets / 12 wins / 22p / 44% sr / +20 SP / +25 BFSP (bigger than 13/2, 0/21, 6p - some have gone close and there will be a bigger priced winner at some point)
I could drill further down into those stats and look at those horses with a top 3 finish at least once on last three starts, so... a micro...
Kevin Ryan / Hamilton / All runners 5-6f / Top 3 at least once last three / 13/2 or shorter SP >>>
22 bets / 12 wins / 15p / 55% sr / +20 SP / +24 BFSP
Not a bad little micro and actually those sent off bigger are only 0/7, 4 places, so not to be dismissed as such.
Both Pocket Rocket and Rathbone hit those stats and on that basis I may have a small nibble for an interest on Friday evening, on what otherwise will be a quiet day for me.
Pocket Rocket - he's 9/2, but is having his second run after a gelding op. I do remember one with that sort of profile bolting up at Thirsk the other day when I did the 'pointers' piece, thinking where did that run come from - I suspect he may come on bundles for that last run 13 days back if they really eased off him after the op, and he's up in trip. It looks an open race mind and the top two clearly won't be far away, but you can see the stats above and muse over them as you please! There are reasons why Pocket Rocket could leave his previous form behind. And Megan is riding with confidence, we will see if he makes 9/2 look generous or not.
Rathbone - well Kevin has won this before and this horse is in the form of his life the last three runs. Those efforts read well 'on the figures' and at 5/1 will hit those stats above. IF he runs like he has recently I personally struggle to see him out the top 3 in this line up. He's finished ahead of Commance, Equiano, Ilusionist and Music Society this season. The last twice the top two have been miles clear of the remainder, which is always a positive. His Hamilton run was very good given he fluffed the start and did well to get so close, and Thirsk he may well have been in front soon enough but did it well. That was also a career best RPR, a 101, under this 7lb claimer. The stalls are up the centre and there looks to be plenty of pace to track across the board, and middle to near can be favoured here. If he repeats that Thirsk run, or builds on it, I thought he'd be bang there. Hopefully he gets a clear run/gets out in time if behind something.
Anyway, do with that little lot as you please, as I've emailed out they'll no doubt tail off - that's usually what happens!
But Kevin will be having more Hamilton winners in line with those pointers above so they should pay one day, even if not today! :)
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Oh, while I'm here, I should mention Really Super
As most of you know I've been a small shareholder from the moment she went to Amy's, 5% or so, and i've tried to take you on the journey with me, seven wins, culminating in her best victory, last year's Summer Plate. What a day. She was meant to run in this year's renewal, tomorrow, but sadly last week it was decided to retire her with immediate effect.
She picked up a tendon injury at Uttoxeter we think and after various tests/scans it was confirmed she had a rare tendon injury that would take a long time to heal, and even after that it would be too risky to race her again. She's not in any real pain and should recover just fine to hopefully produce baby Super's of the future.
So, a sad end to our journey but thankfully she finishes in one piece and gave us all some thrill, memories I won't ever forget and some new lifelong friends along the way. The greatest of games. Hopefully she can stamp her class on a few foals.
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As always, good luck with any bets,
I may be in touch tomorrow with something for Market Rasen's big day, we shall see. I should do another big race video preview for you all at some point,
All the best, Josh
