Hello Friend
I hope you haven't spent all your Irish National winnings just yet! :) General Principle may well have been lucky come the end, but that's racing, and winners like that are why you shouldn't throw things at the TV when it doesn't go your way. It all evens out over time. (i think)
Anyway, that race has now gone and i'm hoping to continue my purple patch into Aintree. This is the best punting form I have been in ever I think. In the last 20 days me/any followers have won +129.5 points or so, from just 16 races, finding 8 winners. It's been a bit mad and I will hit a poor run again soon enough! But, hopefully not just yet.
Below I have some stats/trends/pointers for The Grand National. You are free to use these as you please. I will use them to help me come up with a few tips nearer the race.
I have repeated the post below but you can read it HERE>>>
Grand National 2018 Stats/Trends/Pointers
I don’t have a great record in this race, which does irk me somewhat. Well, since I’ve been a racing fan (10 years or so), I’ve yet to back the winner. My Midlands National, Irish National, Scottish National and Welsh National form hasn’t quite translated to this race. Sunnyhillboy was the closest I've come - an agonising nose defeat in a photo. My mood wasn't improved by the fact the friends i was with had backed the winner at 33s, the buggers. I will be trying to use the stats below to help me end my hoodoo.
I take a more relaxed approach to the Aintree meeting as I attend for all three days and very much enjoy the social occasion – I don’t slave away on race analysis as I do at Cheltenham. However, there will be some coverage and I’ll take each day as it comes. The ‘tips’ made +16 points last year from a handful of races.
At some point next week I will use the stats below to form a ‘winning profile’ and hope that it produces a shortlist that includes the winner! (and that I land on the right ones to tip) This is is the same approach that has won me and any followers +129 points or so in the last 20 days.
For now, just the stats/pointers to use as you please…
10 Year Stats
10/398 runners, 40 placed horses
10/10 aged 8-11 (6+7, 0/28,0p… only 2 6yo have run)
10/10 had won at C2 or above
10/10 were up by no more than 2 classes: 3+ , 0/51,2p
10/10 had run over 3m1.5f or further: 0/55,4p had not
10/10 had 1+ run in prev 90 days: 0… 0/35,4p
10/10 had 3+ runs in prev 365 days: 0-2… 0/64,5p
10/10 had 18+ career runs: 17 or fewer… 0/105,8p
10/10 had 3+ handicap runs: 0-2… 0/36,1p
10/10 had 3+ runs this season: 0-2… 0/92,7p
- 5 runs only: 0/66,4p (not sure much logic to that)
10/10 had 10+ chase runs: 0/72,5p did not
10/10 had 13+ runs going LH: 0-12…. 0/172, 14p
10/10 had 5+ career wins: 0-4… 0/121,11p
- 4 wins only is 8 of those 11p, so caution with those
9/10 1st or 2nd at least once on last three runs: 1/138,11p were not
9/10 had 5+ runs in handicap chases: 0-4: 1/114,9p
9/10 had 1-3 handicap chase wins
9/10 had 4+ wins going LH: 0-3.. 1/242,17p
9/10 had 3-6 chase wins
Other
Bottom weights: 0/29,0p
1-2 chase wins only: 0/85,9p
Wore cheekpieces: 0/72,5p, Blinkers 1/46,3p
0 places in handicap chases: 0/42,1p
Ran over 3m ½ f to 3m2f LTO: 0/131,10p (poss a random stat, no logic)
Ran Right Handed LTO: 0/98,6p
Ran in a G2 LTO: 0/56,8p
*
I did also have a look at some 5 year pointers…
5/198 runners, 20 places
5/5 had 3+ runs this season: 0-2, 0/44,2p
5/5 had 5+ career wins: 0-4… 0/61,6p
5/5 had 5-8 career wins
5/5 had 2 or more runs at G3 level: 0-1… 0/49,3p
5/5 did NOT run in a Non-Major race LTO: did… 0/75,7p
5/5 running at same class (G3) Up1 or dropping in class: Up 2+ … 0/75,7p
4/5 running at same class (G3) or Up 1:
4/5 carried 10-11 or less: 10-12+…. 1/73,6p
4/5 had 2+ runs in prev 90 days: 0-1… 1/91,11p
Other
OR 10lb or higher from last run: 2/7 runners, 3 places
Had run over 4m3.5f+ prev, 0/55,8p
Ran RH LTO: 0/49,2p
Headgear… CP + Blinkers: 0/73,5p
*
That's all for today,
Josh |
