Hello, Friend,
Below you can find my trends for this year's Galway Plate, which goes off at 6.40 pm this evening. Following those you can my shortlist against my trends profile, and those horses representing trainer's who've won the race previously...
This approach can often be a useful 'way in' and if you're attacking the race I hope they help you land on the winner or a decent priced placed horses...
The Galway Plate
14/303, 56p (all runners, sample size)
14/14 were at least 5lb lower than top rated (were not: 0/43p, 4p) (23lb or lower than top rated: 0/37, 4p)
14/14 carried 10-2-11-5 (exc jockey claims) (did not: 0/81, 10p)
14/14 ran over 2m6f or shorter last start (did not: 0/75, 11p)
14/14 had 1-13 runs in handicaps (did not: 0/87, 10p)
14/14 had 0-2 runs this season (3+ : 0/46, 3p)
14/14 had no more than 5 runs over further in career (6+ : 0/76, 11p)
14/14 sent off 14/1 or shorter last start (bigger: 0/65, 7p)
13/14 had 2-5 runs this calendar year (had not: 1/98, 15p)
12/14 sent off 16/1 or shorter SP (bigger: 2/148, 11p)
11/14 had 0-1 wins in handicaps (2+ : 3/120, 19p) (no winner with 2+, last 8 renewals)
11/14 had 0 wins in handicap chases (1+ : 3/148, 24p) (no winner with 1+ since 2012)
Other
14/14 have run at 7 prep tracks: Punchy (6), Killarney (3), x1 … Down Royal, Perth, Tipperary, Ballinrobe, Newton Abbot
Trainers
G Elliott: 3/27, 5p
H De Bromhead: 2/28, 3p
W Mullins: 2/47, 15p
X1: J Kiely, T Mullins. C A McBratney, N Meade, T Taaffe, P Nicholls, J O’Brien
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Application of the trends…
A profile of the horse carrying 10-2 – 11-5, excluding jockey claims, 1-13 runs in handicaps, 0-2 runs this season, no more than 5 runs over further and having run over 2m6f or shorter last start… would point to 14/14 (14/95, 29p) and IF upholding would point to a longer list of 12, inc x3 reserves…
Samcro, Exit Poll, Unexcepted (the x3 reserves, now NRs)…
The Shunter, Cape Gentleman, Fire Attack, El Barra, Early Doors, Annamix, Darasso, Notebook, Castlegrace Paddy
Of those… 0 handicap chase wins (generally suggesting unexposed/potentially well handicapped) has been a decent pointers especially in recent seasons… applying that to the above list would leave 11/14 (11/48 runners, 15p, +150 BFSP) and IF upholding…
Unexpected, Samcro, Annamix, Darasso, Notebook, Castlegrace Paddy
A list of ALL those entries with 0 handicap chase wins to their name (which does include every winner since 2012)…
Samcro, Unexpected, Cape Gentleman, Gabynako, Easy Game, Ronald Pump, Annamix, Darasso, Gin On Lime, Notebook, Catslegrace Paddy, Battleoverdoyen
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Trainers (to have won race last 14 years/with runners)
Samcro, Ash Tree Meado, Hurricane Georgie, Battleoverdoyen
Fire Attack, Early Doors, A Wave Of The Sea, Darasso
El Barra, Easy Game, Annamix,
Gin On Lime, Notebook
Daly Tiger
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Good Luck,
Josh
