Hello Friend
I hope you're having a great week, the sun continues to shine most of the time although the winter jumpers could do with a deluge soon.
Something for The Flat...
I've a couple of things for you today, first up a free magazine (no sign up required) for The Cambridgeshire meeting which starts today, with some trends pointers for one of the Group races each day, including The Middle Park on Saturday.
Decent pointers as always, including in The Middle park. For example, all 12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 6 furlongs, 9 had at least 2 previous wins over 6 furlongs
This is from my friends over at Free Racing Tips, where I usually send you to a page to fill out your details at which point they'll email you the guide.
However, I'm a day late and that link no longer works, so I've uploaded the magazine to my blog and you can just read it by clicking the link below - it opens as an online PDF straight away - hopefully you'll see why I send these out when available, they are a decent read and all for free.
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Something for The Jumps...
Who's Fit & Who's Fat?
Last night I had a dive into my Horse Race Base account looking for trainers who do well in October and November with winter horses having their first run of the season (ie no run wins 1st May 2021)
I found ten micro angles of interest which i've repeated below.
The post...
In this post I've highlighted a few trainers who do well with horses making their seasonal return during the months of October and November. This means the horse hasn't run since the 1st May 2021. Knowing if a horse is fit is one of the challenges to finding winners and making money at this time of year. One edge is to be track side and of course it's a big positive if a horse has previously won on seasonal return. Many trainers can get a horse fit at home but working out who's fit and who's fat while sat at home is a challenge. It's often best not to guess in this game, if possible. Of course we could all sit out the early weeks of October/November, but where's the fun in that?
Below you can find 10 trainer 'micro angles' / 'starting points' which may help.
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The starter set of data, applicable to all :-
- UK National Hunt
- October & November
- Horse had 0 runs this season (1st May >) (includes horses having first career start)
- Any odds
- 2013 > (8 full seasons)
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The first set looks at those trainers who may target certain tracks, the second who've done well in certain race types.
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Trainers / Tracks
Starter set above, all runners...
- A Honeyball/ Fontwell: 27 bets / 11 wins / 19p / 41% sr/ +19 SP / +24 BFSP / BFAE 1.59
- R Curtis/Ffos Las: 35 bets / 11 wins / 21p / 31% sr / +13 SP / +19 BFSP / BFAE 1.36
- N Twiston-Davies/Chepstow: 36 bets / 10 wins / 18p / 28% sr / +31 SP / +28 BFSP / BFAE 2.22
- V Williams/Ascot: 33 bets / 8 wins / 12p / 24% sr / +36 SP / +47 BFSP / BFAE 2.14
- N Henderson/Aintree: 24 bets / 8 wins / 11p / 33% sr / +22 SP / +26 BFSP / BFAE 1.64
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Trainers / Race Type
- V Williams/Handicap Chase (all)/Age 4-8: 140 bets / 34 wins / 59p / 24% sr / +125 SP / +170 BFSP / BFAE 1.83
- H Fry/NH Flat & Handicap Hurdles: 105 bets / 30 wins / 53p / 29% sr / +59 SP / +80 BFSP / BFAE 1.56
- F O’Brien/NH Flat: 57 bets / 17 wins / 25p / 30% sr / +36 SP / +53 BFSP / BFAE 1.81
- A Honeyball/Handicap Chase (all): 34 bets / 12 wins / 13p / 35% sr / +58 SP / +77 BFSP / BFAE 2.47
- D Skelton/Novice Chase: 23 bets / 10 wins / 14p / 43% sr / +20 SP / +25 BFSP / BFAE 1.44
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Hopefully those stats may point you to a few winners in the coming weeks. Note them down and use them as a 'way in'.
That's all for today,
All the best, Josh |
