Hello Friend
Ah well I wasn't planning on bombarding your inbox again today but I have taken a deeper look at The Red Rum handicap chase than anticipated and thought some of you may enjoy the read, if nothing else.
These have been on the blog for a few hours...
TIPS
4.40 Aintree
Baby King - 1 point win - 25/1 (bet365/BV) 20/1 (gen)
Sizing Platinum - 1 point win - 20/1 (gen)
The Flying Portrait - 1 point win - 33/1 (gen) (send for the white coats!)
Without doubt three wild enough pokes in this, more in hope than expectation but there is some method to my madness... 5 of the last 10 winners of this have won with an SP of 16/1 or bigger, 8 of the last 10 8/1 or bigger. So, it can pay to look at the rags and the hope is that over time, if I keep my eyes fixed on the 16/1+ pokes, I may do just fine. I tipped the 16/1 winner of this two years ago for McCain so here's hoping I can find another. I have been influenced by that 16/1+ winners stats and in effect I looked at the biggies and tried to make a case for some.
I was influenced by some stats, especially for Baby King... my own approach to stats/trends hasn't thrown up too many of note for this race, but if focusing on those whose highest class win was C3 or G3 and who had 0-2 runs in G3s, you are left with 9/54 runners, 21 places, in the last 10 renewals. Those stats leave just three, and they are all trained by Tom George, who is 1/2,2p in the race> Baby King / Bun Dorran / Noche Des Reyes ..
Baby King...
Having gone through the stats in that way I felt obliged to go with one of them, and my pin landed on this one! I'm not sure the George horses are going that well but you can forgive plenty with 25/1 pokes. This horse is a CD winner who does enjoy getting his toe in. He is a bit inconsistent but his best form tends to be on flatter, tight tracks - Wincanton / Musselburgh/Aintree. He may not have enjoyed Chepstow LTO where he went well until 3 out or so, and/or the yard form or lack of, may have rubbed off on him. He's had a light enough campaign which may be no bad thing and it could be he prefers a break between his races. He should be able to sit mid-division and if he can get into a rhythm he 'could' be the one to pick up the pieces 'IF' plenty of these fall in a hole up the straight (which isn't impossible in this) So, at 25s, I thought i'd throw a dart. With all of these i'd like to see some sort of market support.
Sizing Platinum...
He just looks interesting in this and given Tizzard is 8/16,11p with all runners at the last two Grand National Meetings I am tempted to just back anything of his at a price! Indications are that they target this meeting now and there is a chance this horse has been also. He was an unfancied 50s shot at Cheltenham, his first run since October, and he went well enough as they turned for home. To my eyes he then got rather tired rather quickly, which suggests he may come on plenty for it. 16f around here, with some cut (looks like he may appreciate softer now he has got older - less severe on the legs) and a fast pace to track may be ideal. Robbie Power jumps back into the plate and having tipped a 16/1 handicap chase winner of theirs last year, I thought i'd best dive in on this one also. He has the form and the ability to win this and I can't say for sure he can't win from this mark, in these conditions.
Theflyingportrait...
Likely to be the biggest poke of the lot but Candlish has trained a 33/1 handicap winner at this meeting in recent years, and here's hoping for another one. The yard are in very good form, most are running with credit and I just wondered why they would run him in this race after the break. Maybe it is just to give the owners a nice day out and to set him up for the odd summer chase to come, on better ground. He has won after a lengthy break before (although not quite this lengthy) and clearly there is a big fitness doubt. He may travel well into this for a long way before fading. But something just niggled at me at this price, to a point where I couldn't help myself. The trainer can ready one after an absence if they so please but you do want a price. Like Baby King he is another CD winner which is no bad thing around here. He also races prominently and should lay up with Gino Trail (if here to run his race), tracking him I suspect. Both of them could ruin each others chances if not. The ground? Well, he has been kept to decent ground in recent months but if you look far enough back there are some admirable efforts on soft/heavy where it was the trips (19/20f) that seemed to catch him out more so than the going. I wasn't happy, at his price, to say with confidence that he won't handle this ground and cannot win on it. Come this race there may be some good in the going, who knows, and while he may be best on good, 33/1 pokes will always have a question or five to answer! :)
Of the rest...
Where do you start??
Well in truth if I wasn't going to Aintree I would probably leave this race as in truth it's a minefield but where would the fun be in that? You can make a case for nearly every runner in this and I won't be putting you off any fancies...
Gino Trail - what a horse, saver material?? Possibly... I would like to think 11-12 in this ground, without an easy lead (IF the Flyingportrait is up there), on the back of a hard race LTO and a hard season, may just do for him. BUT... he is 'THE' in form horse in this and has been ultra consistent. He is tough. It could be that he bounces out and on this ground gets into a nice rhythm and plays catch me if you can. If he runs his race, as at Cheltenham, it's possible that nothing catches him. 10s is ok. I just thought he may fade late after his recent exertions but that is educated guessing at best. The rest may fall in a hole and he keeps rolling. I will have something on at track-side just in case. Part head and part heart no doubt. He is such a likeable horse.
Kings Socks - just short enough for me, generally, and in the context of this race. I thought he ran the last day as if wanting further, not shorter, but maybe trust in Pipe, who has hit some form. This horse will demolish a handicap one day I suspect but at that price I can cheer him on and not feel aggrieved I wasn't on. (while peering to the bottom of the home straight to see where my three are!)
Theinval - 6/1 again is short enough for me, especially for a trainer who is 0/17,2p in the race. But Henderson's fancied handicappers should always be feared at this meeting. But, I can leave on price. He has a chance, if building on that Festival run and if it didn't take too much out of him.
Bun Dorran- 7s - again I can leave on price, especially given some niggles over the yard form- i'd want bigger, as above with Baby King, and something just niggles at me with this horse- I won't say he is a shirker but there is the odd question in a battle I think, but I could be talking nonsense. I wasn't sure why he should improve on recent runs and he was beat in this last year. The fact George fires 3 at the race may suggest none have been targeted and he is throwing mud hoping that some sticks.
Doitforthevillage - I suppose would have a chance and 10s may be ok, but as above i've tried to make cases for horse twice this price given the historical context. I thought Paddy B would have had the chance to ride him, he is the go to man for P Henderson, especially on this horse. He is on a career high mark also, and is 10lb higher than when running well in this last year (when I was on I think) before running out of luck and being brought down. He'd have gone very close that day. Were he 16s+, I may have mused for longer. He could go well and has been well touted.
Tommy Silver - I can leave a Nicholls handicapper here given they are 0/60,4p in the last 5 years, (esp outside of the National) and that alone makes 10s short enough to my eye. He has to prove he is up to a race of this nature- frenetic, and surrounded by horses with little room. He may pass that test and is lightly raced. The yard are in form but I wonder if he is just too inexperienced.
Overtown Express - i'll mention him because anyone who read one of Gavin Priestley's free blog posts may have noted the very good record of horses that ran at the Uttoxeter Midlands National meeting last time out. There is a case to just back all such runners EW on the evidence of the last 10 years or so. This one could run well but I question his attitude for a scrap but there will be some pace to aim at and he may enjoy this track. His jumping can be iffy also and given how frenetic this may be he will have to be on point. 14s is ok. Another who you could make a case for!
Bentelimar- I suppose I should mention him given he is 10s - he's had enough chances in winnable races recently for me and i'm happy to leave at that price. They reach for the CP which do need to make a difference but he was poor enough the last day.
I was happy to leave the rest well alone.. BUT...the last two races I have tipped in, I haven't mentioned the winner at all in the write up, which is a punch in the face for my professional pride if nothing else. So, it may be a case of ignoring all of the above and simple backing... Vosne R / Robinshill / Wisty / Savello / Noche D R ! I couldn't have any of them for one reason or another but this is a strange handicap, where quite literally anything could happen and has done over the years.
PACE... Gino Trail will blast off. Theflyingportrait will try and keep tabs, hopefully just behind and in the right place to pounce if Gino then folds. Robbie Power should have Sizing just off the pace, not too far back with any luck, and Baby King may not be far behind that. IF able to hold their positions, none of them are hold up types which I never like around here over fences, or generally in chases. No excuses.
Gl whatever you play on, or if at all!
Josh
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