Good Morning, Friend

Newmarket July Meeting

I've had a look through the historical results of this meeting since 2014 (the previous eight festivals) and there appear to be four trainers worth plenty of attention... Charlie Appleby, Aidan O'Brien, Mark Johnston and Saeed Bin Suroor.

The angles I've landed on are a combined...

129 bets / 45 wins / 71 places (inc wins) / 35% wsr / +230 BFSP

Of course historical results are no guarantee of future success but with any luck these angles can help you land on a winner or two this week.

You can flick through them HERE >>>

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What else... well, no 'through the card', for all the last two I've sent out have found their customary 2 winners apiece, which isn't too bad.

At times I am struggling to motivate myself during this summer weekday racing, including over jumps (except when The Plumber runs obviously), and can't wait for the 'winter' jumps to get going again in October, however in today's 'Racing Chat', I ended up landing on a Class 6 Classified event at Brighton (I'll no doubt get what I deserve!)...

Racing Chat

7.40 Brighton – Royal Heart – 15/2

I couldn’t find much to flag today and I’m not sure whether it’s a sign of desperation that I’m diving into a Brighton, Class 6 Classified stakes, but there we go!

It is worth just flagging the form of Ed Dunlop, who’s in the midst of a purple patch, 13/62, 24p the last 30 days, 7/29, 10p, 57% rivals beaten the last 14. That’s a 24% win SR against a yearly average of 10.8 %. All of his runners at the moment are worth a second glance. You could argue his string are in the best form of any trainer represented in this race, for all many ways you can measure that.

The horse… well he knows how to win, twice on the sand, and of some interest maybe is that the first of those was also in a ‘classified’ stakes, and in 1st time CP. He drops back into a Classified here and gets 1st Visor, which may or may not have a transformative affect. He is also thoroughly unexposed on the turf and over 8f, not having had many goes at all and none on the grass since younger. He arrives on the back of a course run, and experience here is no bad thing, and he appeared to handle the track having watched it back. He travelled well there but did look to get outpaced as they quickened in the final 2f, but he stayed on well enough. I can see why they’re giving this trip a try. He wouldn’t want to blow a gasket in this headgear (always possible) but it may help him travel more kindly near the front end.

This is such a weak/winnable race, if all those ‘doing something different’ changes have a positive affect (1st visor, trip move, ‘drop’ in class) he would go very close here and 15/2 may prove generous. Of course those changes may have a negative impact, but that’s the game. The yard form and the fact the horse arrives in some sort of form are positives also.

Do with that as you please, but do keep an eye on the Dunlop string in the next week or two, unless I’ve missed the boat.

Good luck with any bets,

Josh

p.s don't forget to flick through my July Meeting Trainers HERE >>>