Hello Friend

Well after a couple of quiet days we have 3 horses to go to war with tomorrow...

2.30 Beverley Chocamoca 

Ideal Cond. June and July; Class 6; 5f to7.5f; 1-30 days

Form in Cond. 1,1,1,1,1,2,16,1,10,5,8,3,1,2,11,1 (0/51, 11 places outside this) 

Positives. He has his conditions and looks set to run a decent race. Clearly he has a few clunkers in there but he is handicapped to go well. He has won off OR62 in 2013, his last winning mark was OR56 last year, and he runs off OR57 here. He is also drawn low which is an advantage here. He is 6/12, 8 places in all flat handicaps in June. Rest pattern and field size are fine. He is 3/15, 6 places over CD. 

Negatives. None really. G. Lee is 0/7, 2 places on him but I can't think the booking is a negative  - he is 13/88 at the track so no issues there. Clearly he hasn't been in form but he is now 0/17, 6 places in April and May. 

My Verdict. 1 point win (11/2 Bet365/SkyB 6/1 BF Sportsbook). Ticks all the boxes and stats of 2/6, 3 places in conditions last season suggest he has every chance of adding to the tally at some point in the next few weeks.  

3.00 Beverley Rambo Will 

Ideal Cond. 8-30 days; Class 5 or lower, OR70 or lower

Form in Cond. 1,3,3,3,1,1,5,1 (0/16, 3 places outside this) 

Positives. He has his conditions and is 1/3, 3 places in class 6 in flat turf handicaps. He is also 2/2 for this jockey. All other conditions are fine. He has also won at 16/1, having been 'out of form' last year, so his place in the market doesn't concern me, unless he drifts further. He is drawn in the middle and does like to press the pace, he should be able to get the position his jockey wishes, which may be to try and make all -although getting in a battle with Cadeaux Pearl upfront wouldn't do either of them any good. He is down to his last winning mark. 

Negatives. None really. This is his first try at the track and you never know if they will like the experience. But he has won on flat tracks, and undulating tracks so there should be no problem. 

My Verdict. 1 point win (16/1 Bet365, market yet to fully form) The fact he has won when unfancied makes me want to go win only, as well as his consistency in conditions, but as always you EW punters may have a different view given the odds! 

5.10 Haydock English Summer 

Ideal Cond. 8-15 days; 1m5.5f max; Class 3<10k

Form in Cond. 1,6,1,1,3,2,1,1 (0/25, 4 places outside this in flat handicaps) 

Positives. Well he has his conditions and indeed has won in them for three different trainers. He has only run twice in 0-7 days, yet to place, but it is clear that to date he has preferred to return to the track fairly quickly. Whether Fahey has the same knack we shall see. He has a clear class ceiling, class 3 £10k+ and above he is 0/11, 0 places. He has won off OR89 in 2011, his last win was off OR80 and he runs off OR81 here, there should be no excuse in that sense. Paul Hanagan also gets the leg up which I don't think is ever a bad thing with this stable. 

Negatives. Well he is 0/18, 2 places above 6/1 which could be significant. He is out of form but it could be that it has taken him a couple of runs to get up to speed this season. He is 0/8, 1 place at Haydock, however 5 of those runs were over 1m6f and as yet he has never run well beyond 1m5.5f, so it is hard to tell if he dislikes the course or just didn't stay. 

My Verdict. 1 point win 12/1 (general) There are a few concerns, namely whether he will run well in this rest pattern for a new trainer, but given he has done so before I will take the chance. Hopefully some money arrives but I personally don't like to be too swayed by those stats. If he finished out the back maybe he doesn't like Haydock!

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Non Qualifiers-

Good Luck, 

Josh 

p.s just to clarify, the majority of you, if not all of you are also on my 'general' email list as well. Every email you receive as a member of this service starts with 'Flat Profiles' in the subject line. You receive all other emails as part of the general list.