Hello Friend
Flat Profiles Review.
In what was the first year of Flat Profiles it is safe to say it was a volatile experience, and ultimately one that was slightly disappointing.
The overall stats are as follows:
167 bets / 20 wins / 50 places (inc wins) / 12% win SR / 30% w/place SR
- Following ‘My Verdict’ resulted in: -5.2 points
- All to 1 point win, ignoring me: +28.8 points
- Betting EW: +6.83 points.
*** Links to final Results are below: ***
Clearly the first lesson is to limit my interpretation as much as possible and be confident in the profile, and back them accordingly – or at least always have something on (1 point say) and then make a judgement about whether to have more on.
That win strike rate is 8% below where I would have hoped as a minimum and although there were a few close/unlucky seconds, there were not as many winners as I expected. And of course the profit levels for backing them all to 1 point win is very much dependent on one or two big priced winners. That is not healthy long term.
Moving Forwards...
Well firstly the performance wasn’t at the level where I could launch another standalone profile service. That would just be wrong, given the approach clearly needs a bit of work/fine tuning. But, it is still an approach, in general, I am excited about and that has some validity.
Having gone through the 18 different horses that won for us there are some stand out factors. 13 of the 18 had strong class ceiling and/or rating ceiling factors. 8 (inc some of those 13) had clear ground preferences at the extremes (soft/heavy and good to firm/firm) 5 had course/distance form or a course preference.
For next flat season I think I will focus on trying to find those where class/rating and/or going (soft/heavy-good to firm) play a key role in a horse’s performance. Finding a group of horses that only perform when dropping into class x and or ratings band x (or below a certain mark) would be a good starting point. (Clearly we are dealing with exposed horses here and it will be a case of whether they suit other race conditions and that there are none/very few unexposed improvers in the field.) As would finding those that do like the extreme going’s that others may not find ideal in any given race.
My aim will be to find a group of these to follow, and possibly a more focussed group, and incorporate those into my daily blog posts, highlighting when they have their conditions and tracking them. Depending on how many I find I suspect I will charge a fee just for the PDF for those of you who wish to add them to your own trackers, but that is a few months away yet.
For now, a final apology that it did not live up to expectations but I hope some of you managed to make a profit and have an enjoyable experience at times. August, and one day in particular, was a high amongst a few lows. May I thank you for giving it a go.
I know a few of you who downloaded my new All-Weather Stats Pack have found a few decent winners already, so hopefully that in part makes up for performance of Flat Profiles 2015/16. You can still grab your copy for free (worth £14) HERE>>>
All the best
Josh
p.s do follow/continue to follow my blog if you don’t already. The micro systems have been doing very well and my ‘tipping’ is starting to warm up. Now on +120 points or so since start of August. www.racingtoprofit.co.uk | 