Watching Jungle Bay scoot up the rail and win at 20/1 yesterday was rather sickening with no money on. If you follow 'my verdict' strictly I can only apologise for getting one wrong and somewhat 'bottling' it. I clearly paid too much attention to recent form, which was misleading in this example.There have been 6 other 'no bets' that have all come unplaced but that winner would have paid for a few losers. I hope some of you ignored 'my verdict' and backed him. 

05/08/15

4.10 Pont Imperial Legend 

Ideal Cond. July, August, September; 5f; OR80 or below; Class 4<£6k

Form in Cond. 6,13,4,1,1,1,1,2,4,3,1,2 4 (0/30, 5 places outside) 

Positives. He has his conditions again and drops into C5 where he is 2/5. All wins when 12/1 or under, and is 0/10, 0 places 14/1+. Race conditions are fine. 

Negatives. His losing streak stretches back quite some way, but if he is going to strike again it will be in these conditions. He is drawn a bit wide but can be held up and there are not any out and out front runners in here so it shouldnt be a problem. 

My Verdict. 1 point win 10/1 (BV/WH) 8/1 general. 

***

4.40 Pont Fazza 

Ideal Cond. 1m; OR70 or below; Good or worse

Form in Cond. 1,4,1,3,3,1,1,1,3,3, 3 (1/36, 7 places outside) 

Positives. Has his conditions and all race conditions fine. He is 2/6, 4 places over CD and is a previous winner of this race. 

Negatives. None really, he usually runs his race in these conditions and let's hope he does so again. 

My Verdict. 1 point win 13/2 (general) 

***

5.50 Newc Keep It Dark 

Ideal Cond. 1-15 days; 11 runners or fewer ; OR 80 or below

Form in Cond. 1,5,2,5,1,1,6,1,8 (0/27, 8 places outside) 

Positives. He has his conditions and is 2/8, 4 places at the track, and 0/2, 2 places over CD. He also likes juice in the ground and is 2/6, 3 places on Good to Soft. He is 0/9 on Good to Firm so a few of his recent runs could be ignored. He is handicapped to go close. 

Negatives. None for his profile and race conditions. He was a close second in this class from 2lb higher earlier in the season and a repeat of that, in ideal conditions, would see him go close. 

My Verdict. 1 point win 12/1 (General) If he drifts we could be in trouble as he is 0/9, 2 places when 14/1 or bigger, with all wins 12/1 or below. 

***

6.50 Newc Uncle Brit 

Ideal Cond. 8f-9.5f; OR60 or below ; 1-120 days

Form in Cond. 1,1,2,1,6,7 3,1, 4,4 (0/12, 1 place outside)

Positives. Has conditions again and all race conditions are fine. He is 1/1 over CD and 3/5 over 8f. 

Negatives. None for conditions although he has only been running ok the last twice. 

My Verdict. 1 point win 7/1 (general) In what looks a fairly open race on paper I am happy to give him another chance. 0/7, 2 places above 8/1 so any drift would be a concern. 

***

Non Qualifiers 

-PickALittle (3.20 Brighton) 

-Valantino Oyster (4.30 Chep)

-Ralphy Boy (4.40 Pont) 

-Amitious Icarus/Bondi Beach Boy (5.50 Newc) 

-Teetotal (6.20 Newc) 

***

Josh