Hello Friend

Poor old Boom And Bust. This is a cruel sport at times and I am not sure what went wrong with him but he was pulled up pretty sharpish. Hopefully it isn't too bad and he returns to the track soon. 

4/21, 10 placed = +14 points

Onto tomorrow...

4.45 Newmarket Maoi Chinn Tire  

Ideal Cond. 14f-16f, Good to Firm 

Form in Cond. 1,1,1,2,1,2,1 (0/18, 5 places outside this in handicaps)

Positives. He currently has his ideal going and trip. 2/2 when returning 121+ days off track. All other race conditions fine. 

Negatives. Firstly his handicap mark. OR 66 (after jockey claim taken into account) his highest winning mark so far in handicaps, but that was his last win and a case could be made that he is still progressive, based on that. However he does run off OR76 here, although Hughes has been booked. Weather...this is the main concern. It is meant to rain hard tomorrow in this part of the world (I live 10 minutes away from Newmarket) and I cant see it being Good to Firm come race time. He is 0/6, 1 place on ground worse than Good to Firm in handicaps on the Flat. 

My Verdict. No Bet at the moment. I will wait and if the rain doesn't arrive and it remains good to firm it will be a 1 point win bet at 6/1. These ones are tricky when they appear to be ground dependent but all of his best form is on Good to Firm. 

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5.05 Brighton Pick A Little 

Ideal Cond. 1-11 runners; April, May, June 

Form in Cond. 1,1,1,9,2,3,3....1,1 (Bold is runs this season) (0/27, 1 place outside of these conditions in flat handicaps) 

Positives. Has his ideal conditions, comes here on the back of 2 wins, is handicapped to go well again with jockey claim and based on old form. There will be no excuses with the young jockey on top who is making a name for himself. 1/3 over CD, the win LTO. 3/8 Good to Firm, 3/4 1-7 runners. 

Negatives. None. Has had a decent enough break (had won in rest pattern) so I cannot see there being an excuse. Just whether something is too good on the day. 

My Verdict. 1 point win 2/1 (Skybet, Paddy Power) , 9/4 Betfair Sports Book - if you can get on!! 

NOTE: You will notice that this horse is not in the original document. He is a new addition, and new since I provided the first update a few weeks ago. He deserves a place in the team with his profile. 

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6.35 Catterick Fathom Five 

Ideal Cond. April, May, June, C3 or below 

Form in Cond. 9,1,1,1,1,8,9,9,10,1,3,1,1,1,19,13... 13, 5, 6, 5, 2, 8

Positives. He has his conditions again. There looks to be plenty of rain around tomorrow which will help but he has won on Good to Firm if it doesnt arrive. He is low drawn and looks to be the only front runner in the field. He could be able to dominate. He has won over CD. There were signs of life on his penultimate run - I dont know what went wrong last time! He won this race last year. 

Negatives. He is becoming bloody expensive to follow - well 3 points and counting for me personally and as I have said before he is the oldest member of the team who clearly isnt getting any better! 

My Verdict. 1 point win 10/1 PP, 8/1 (general) A real dilemma as I want to leave him now but I cant. That second at Hamilton, where he was beaten by the Fav tomorrow, shows he can still run well and he did win this last year. The rain may arrive, he has quite a pull in the weights with the fav (although he is improving so that may not count for much) However I can see him getting an easy lead up the rail and there will be no excuse. One final chance for me (again!). 

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Those running that do not have their ideal conditions...

That is all for tomorrow, 

Josh 

p.s The majority of you are on my general email list as well as this one, which means you will get the odd email about Flat Profiles, and asking you to join :) Please ignore them, and apologies for any inconvenience/annoyance. We welcome another 5 members today and in truth I think all those who would like to join from my email list have done, so I will be easing off on those emails now :)  

p.p.s For new members the 'My Verdict' is exactly that, what I am personally betting. Some people follow that blind, others use the information I provide, combined with their own judgement to make their own staking decisions. The service will be publicly judged on the results of the my verdict bets and to 1 point win bets.