| Hello Friend
27/06/15
4.50 Chester Ballesteros
Ideal Cond. 8-15 days, 1-11 runners, C2 or below Form in Cond. 1,1,1,10 (0/17, 4 places outside)
Positives. He has his conditions again, has dropped to a very good mark and is 1/2 over CD.
Nagatives. Well he ran poorly at Thirsk when never in the race, in conditions. He has still to run well outside of 8-15 days, even for this trainer. He has yet to prove he stays 6f so his last run can be ignored. Currently 0/14, 1 place when priced over 6/1. Draw 6 is not ideal, but far from disastrous. He looks to prefer juice in the ground but has won on Good to Firm 1/4. (3/7, 4 places on Heavy and Soft)
My Verdict. 1 point win 7/1 general. If he is going to bounce back, given who he is owned by, it is likely to be here and he has dropped to a level (previous C2 winner) where he should get competitive at some point.
*** 5.25 Chester Kashgar
Ideal Cond. 16-30 days, Good to Firm - Good to Soft Form in Cond. 3,1,1,4,2,1,3,1, 7,5 (1/13, 4 places outside)
Positives. Has conditions and is suited to all race conditions, with stamina assured. He was running well here a couple of starts ago over shorter when not getting any run, and while he may not have won would have been much closer. He is also fancied today and is 4/7, 5 places when 4/1 or under. 2/4, 3 places over CD. He also gets a 'more experienced' jockey on board who is 1/4, 2 places on him. He also drops back into C4 from C3.
Negatives. None
My Verdict. 1 point win 7/2 (general) A lot seems to be in his favour and everything looks set for a bold run.
*** 6.15 Ling Rambo Will
Ideal Cond. 8-30 days, C5 or lower, OR70 or below Form in Cond. 1,3,3,3,1,1,5,1, 10 (0/16, 3 places outside)
Positives. He has his conditions again. All race conditions fine. 1/3, 3 places at the track, albeit over 6f not 5f.
Negatives. He has been in no form whatsoever and was never put in the race last time. Usually wins from the front and there is a lot of pace in the race and some in form rivals. The trainer is also a bit quiet at the moment 1/33 last 30 days.
My Verdict. 1/2 point win 25/1 (general) The usual conundrum when a horse has his conditions but everything else appears to be against him. There is a lot of pace that could collapse and if he could track it could have a chance. He has also won at 16/1 so the market is not always the best guide with him. Horses dont win very often at these odds as we have seen but I can't resist some interest.
*** Non Qualifiers
- Economic Crisis (2.30 Chest)
- Colonel Mak (2.35 Newc)
- English Summer (4.15 Chest) Is a rest pattern horse but that was for previous trainer and is 2/1 here. He has been coming back to form so clearly a big run will be surprise. 2/5 CD, he is 0/12, 1 place when returning 16-60 days so far. However it is only 2 days after ideal rest pattern. Were it not for those 2 days he would have been a selection and maybe worth some support
- San Cassiano (4.20 Newc)
- Taro Tywod (6.40 Donc) We backed him last time but runs over 10.5f here - yet to prove stamina beyond 10f, 0/7, 0 places running over further but is another well fancied today.
*** All the best Josh |
