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25/06/15

8.10 Hamilton Rothesay Chancer 

Ideal Cond. June, C4 or below, 5f 

Form in Cond. 1,2,1,1,8,1,1 (3/49, 15 places outside) 

Positives. He has his conditions and has been running very well, including when winning in May. He has only run one bad race in the conditions above and you would think if he repeats his last run, which was C3, he should go close. 

Negatives. Well he has not won from a mark above 77 (runs of 80 here) however he has only run form a mark of 80 once in a class 4 (usually finding a few too good above this level, 0/14, 1 place in C3 for example) I would not want to dismiss him based on this alone. 

My Verdict. 1 point win (11/2 Bet365) He won a couple of times last season and while there is the niggle over his rating, on what he has achieved he is the best horse in the race. He is a hold up horse so will need luck in running and the pace to suit. He may be being ridden from halfway but will be staying on and we should get a run for our money again. This price obviously allows you EW players to get involved as well. He has won in small fields which suggests he doesnt need the pace to collapse so I can't see any real excuse, ie they go too slow. 

*You will note that Economic Crisis runs in the race. If she wins I will not be annoyed - she is 1/30, 7 places on Good / Good to Firm, 0/11, 2 places in C4, 0/15, 2 places when OR71+ .Yes she is 5/11 over CD, but there is plenty there that would not want me to take 5/1, even if she does suddenly perform to a level and on ground previously beyond her. 

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9.10 Hamilton Baron Run 

Ideal Cond. Hamilton 6f

Form in Cond. 1,1,8,3,1,1,1, 9 (0/8, 0 places outside)

Positives. Well he is returning to the only venue that he has every performed well at in his career to date and horses that like Hamilton normally build up a decent record over time. The 9 was on soft, and he is now 0/4 0 places on soft which would start to suggest that he does need good in the description somewhere. He is also a pound below his last winning mark. His last win here was in C4 and he drops into a C5 here. He is currently 12/1 and is 0/6, 0 places above this price, so any drift would be a slight concern, although that is not conclusive. He also likes to lead and dominate which from his high draw he should be able to do. Joe Fanning rides a prominent racer from stall 2, but hopefully they don't take each other on. His trainer has also started to hit some form. 

Negatives. Well his profile is fine and so are the race conditions. It is just a question of his wellbeing. You could make excuses for all 3 of his runs since his last win and we have seen with 'course specialists' that recent form can be irrelevant. 

My Verdict: 1 point win 12/1 (general) He will win again at Hamilton at some point and let's hope it is tomorrow. Any drift would dampen enthusiasm but if he is going to bounce back it will be here, he has plenty in his favour. He does take on 3 LTO winners, one over CD who won well, but I suppose that is partly why he is 12/1 and not shorter. If he sets off and leads we should get a run for our money. 

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Non Qualifiers