22/07/15

5.00 Catterick Tinseltown 

Ideal Cond. Catterick, 12f, C5 or below, May-August

Form in Cond. 1,1,4,3,1,6,1  (1/31, 5 places outside) 

Positives. He has his conditions and ran a decent race over hurdles last time which was a return to form. 4/9, 5 places class 6. When this horse wins he usually leads all the way. There are no other natural front runners in here that I can see and while he hasnt led on his last few starts I hope his jockey bounces him out and tries to lead all the way. 

Negatives. None really. All race conditions and profile fine. 

My Verdict. 1 point win 9/2 (general) 

**

7.55 Leicester 

1.English Summer 

Ideal Cond. 8-15 days, up to 1m5.5f max, C3<10k

Form in Cond. 1,6,1,1,3,2,1,1 3,6

Positives. Well he has his conditions again, having drifted to 10s last time from much shorter and ran as such. He drops in class here and with jockey claim is 5lb lower from that run. He also appears to be fancied in the market at 11/2, 0/18, 2 places when bigger than 6/1. 

Nagatives. Doesn't give the impression he is about to win and is only 1/12, 2 places on Good to Firm, 1/10 on Good. As opposed to 3/9 on Good to Soft. Also 0/7, 2 places going LH. 

My Verdict. I want to see what the market does, given this race is later this evening. If signs he is being backed or 6/1 or under I will have 1/2 point on. There are a few niggles there but he could run another consistent race and he has dropped to a good mark.

2. Xinbama 

Ideal Cond. Class 4<£6k, Good to Firm 

Form in Cond. 1,4,12,1,1,1 (1/16, 5 places outside) 

Positives. This is a Good to Firm horse - 5/18, 8 places- (0/11, 1 place other) and he is 4/8, 5 places in this Class level. Also 3/8, 7 places in July, which may be linked to ground etc.All other race conditions fine, and Jamie Spencer gets the leg up which is a positive.  

Negatives.  This is his seasonal debut however he did win after 146 days off last season, and the year before that went very close after a long break. The market suggests that he is ready. 

My Verdict. 1 point win 4/1 general (9/2 PP + Ladbrookes) 

**

8.50 Sandown Rocket Rob 

Ideal Cond. 5f or 5.5f; OR 80 or below; C4<£6k or below

Form in Cond. 5,1,1,2,1,1,1,2,2,7,1,3 (1/40, 11 places outside) 

Positives. He has a fairly consistent record in conditions and only ran in them once last year, his last win coming in 2013, and he has since dropped a fair way down the handicap. He is also 4/9, 8 places over CD. All race conditions fine. 

Negatives. Well he hasnt won for some time and that big drop down could be a sign that he is a bit regressive now. All wins when 8/1 or shorter so the market should be a good guide. 0/9, 4 places 17/2-12/1 and 0/16, 0 places above this. 

My Verdict. 1/2 point EW 8/1 general. If he drifts it could be a bad sign and again this race is later tonight so there is the option of waiting to see. He is usually consistent at this track and as a hold up horse an EW bet may be best. Hopefully he can bounce back to form and show some old sparkle. 

***

Non Qualifiers 

-Economic Crisis/Windforpower (4.00 Catt) 

-Flying Power (7.55 Leic) Runs in same race as two selections, so far all wins C5, 0/6, 1 place in C4. 

***

Josh