Hello Friend
20/07/15
2.30 Ayr Goninodaethat
Ideal Cond. Ayr, July, 6f-7f, 1-11 runners Form in Cond. 1,1,6,1,5, 1, 4 (2/39, 10 places outside)
Positives. He has his conditions again and continued his habit of not following up a win last time out. He has everything in his favour again and having won off OR64 last season he is still handicapped to go well,and C5 is no problem. He is also 1/3 for this jockey.
Negatives. Well none in terms of race conditions etc, it is just a case of whether he is on a going day. If ran like he did a couple of starts ago he would go close again. He is 1/19, 4 places when above 8/1, so as long there is no drift he could well be on another going day.
My Verdict. 1/2 point win 7/1. When a horse has won for us I do not like giving back loads of the profit, and so far this horse has only ever won in July once a year. However, there is enough there to back him one more time for 1/2 a point as a big run would be no surprise, and neither would a disappointing one.
*** 4.40 Ayr Silvery Moon
Ideal Cond. 8f, 1-30 days rest Form in Cond. 1,1,3,8,3,1,5,1 10 (1/28, 11 places outside)
Positives. He has his conditions again and doesnt mind any ease underfoot. He ran ok for a long way last time in a better race, and I am not sure if the slow pace suited him, and at what looks a better race that this, lacked a change of gear to get near. All race conditions are fine here and he is 2/2 over CD.
Negatives. There is a worry about a lack of pace again in here, however he is a prominent racer who can lead and I wonder if they will make more use of him here, with very few in the race liking to be up there. He is also 0/13, 3 places in the 17/2-20/1 price range. (currently 12/1)
My Verdict. 1/2 point EW 12/1. He has run a few decent races this season and he has a lot in his favour here (bar pace set up) and is a two times CD winner which caught the eye. I would like to see some money come for him but he has placed at these odds.
*** Non Qualifiers
-Ambitious Icarus/Economic Crisis (3.05 Ayr) -Monel (3.40 Ayr) Dropping back into right class but is 0/12, 1 place OR61+ and 0/10, 2 places 1-15 days so far. -Igleby Angel (4.40 Ayr) runs in same race as other selection and won for us last time out. A liking for Redcar/Thirsk but he has won at track, but is 0/15, 2 places OR91+ -Tom Sawyer (6.40 Beverley) -Slip Sliding Away (7.50 Windsor)
*** Josh
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