Hello Friend
A non-runner today who lines up tomorrow instead...
6.05 Hamilton
1.Uncle Brit
Ideal Cond: 8f-9.5f; OR60 or below ; 1-120 days
Form in Cond. 1,1,2,1,6,7 3,1 (0/12, 1 place outside this)
Positives. Has his conditions and comes here in form. He has won on most going, takes a drop in class, is still handicapped to go well and is 3/6 under this rider in handicaps. There are also a couple of front runners here, one of which has Joe Fanning on top, so hopefully they go a good pace and set it up for a closer. All wins have been when 8/1 and under.
Negatives. Well not too many, he is 0/4, 2 places 31-60 days rest and he is 0/2, 0 places at the track. They were both for his last trainer, the first on seasonal reappearance and the second when he had clearly lost his way. Not enough to tell he doesnt act at the track.
My Verdict. 1 point win 7/1 (Bet365, 6/1 general)
2. Fazzza
Ideal Cond. 1m; OR70 or below; Good or worse Form in Cond. 1,4,1,3,3,1,1,1,3,3 (1/41, 8 places outside)
Positives. He has his conditions here...well, the distance is approx 60 yards beyond 8f - that may make the difference I am not sure. He drops back in distance for the first time this season and his handicap marked has dropped. He has won at 14/1 and 16/1 so price isnt a problem.
Negatives. Well not too many although he is only 1/14, 2 places right handed, as opposed to 5/25, 11 places LH. This could just be the way he has been campaigned.
My Verdict. 1 point win 10/1 (general)
*** 9.05 Pontefract Teetotal
Ideal Cond. Pontefract; 6f; 1-11 runners Form in Cond. 1,8,1,1,6, 7 (1/28, 8 places outside)
Positives. He is back at the course responsible for 3 of his 4 career wins. He didnt run too well here last time but takes a drop down in class here.
Negatives. Well he is 0/9 2 places on Good to Firm (3/11, 5 places on Good, has won on soft) and could do with some rain, which I dont think is around but worth keeping an eye on. He is also 0/15, 3 places when above 8/1 to 20/1. He is currently 10/1. He also comes here arguably after a longer than ideal break. SDS is also 3/7 on him and I have a feeling he could have picked this horse or the Brian Ellison runner - given he is no doubt chasing the jockey title. Maybe that is a sign in itself. Teetotal gets a 'new'jockey for the first time also.
My Verdict. No Bet at the moment. If there is some rain and if he is backed to 8/1 or below I will have 1/2 a point on. It doesn't feel like this is his day and at the moment he either wins here or doesnt run very well. There is quite a bit there to suggest, as I write and 10.20pm, that this may be one of his poorer runs.
*** Non Qualifiers
-Bondi beach Boy (3.50 Haydock) -Greyemkay (5.05 Nott) -Ellaal (6.05 Hamilton) -Another Wise Kid/Colonel Mak/Confessional/Fast Shot (7.40 Hamilton)
*** Josh
| 