4.50 Thirsk Ballesteros
Ideal Cond. 8-15 days rest; 1-11 runners; Class 2<£20k
Form in Cond. 1,1,1,1 (0/16, 4 places outside this)
Positives: Has ideal conditions. All race conditions fine.
OR fine.
Negatives: No negatives. He has yet to win for Fahey from 11
races but has yet to run in these conditions.
My Verdict: 1 point win (9/1, 10/1 general)
4.55 Newb Boom and
Bust
NO bet at the moment. His ideal conditions are on Good to
Firm, over 1m. It is officially Good. If it were good to firm my verdict would
have been a ½ point win bet. If the going does change this is what I will
record it as. He looks to be out of form and had his conditions last time and
showed very little, albeit he was a big price.
5.10 Newmarket Powerful
Wind
Ideal Cond. Good to Firm, 1-11 runners
Form in Cond. 1,1,1,1,10, 1 (1/18, 2 places outside this)
Positives: Has his ideal conditions again. Comes here on the
back of a win. Has won from OR79.
Negatives: Takes a step up in class here. Has won above this
class, but only 1/6, 1 place (Class 4 £6k+ and Class 3) He likes to lead and
there are other front runners in here, namely ComeOnDave.
My Verdict: ½ point EW (12/1 general) Competition for the
lead and rise in class tempers my own enthusiasm for a win only bet, but you
may wish to go down the brave route! He should be up there, is in form and will
place at worse hopefully.
6.15 Doncaster Maven
Ideal Cond. 1m2f or 1m2.5f; Class 3 <£10k; Good, Good to
Firm; 1-15 runners
Form in Cond. 1,3,3,1,2,1,11,1,2,1,4,3 (0/30, 7 places
outside this)
Positives. Has her ideal conditions.
Negatives. 1lb above her last winning mark. 0/8, 1 place
Doncaster, 0/7 jockey.
My Verdict. 1 point win (6/1 general, 7/1 places) She does
have her perfect conditions and is worth backing 1 point win because of that. I
am not concerned by the handicap mark as she hasn’t run in her conditions many
times from it and it is only 1lb higher. That is not a reason not to back her
in my opinion. The course form is a slight concern as is the fact that most of
the field are unexposed 4 year olds but a 1 point win bet is the call. If she
were 12/1+ I may have gone down the EW route.
8.15 Doncaster Meandmyshadow
Ideal Cond. 6f, Good to Firm, 1-15 Days
Form in Cond. 1,1,4,1,2,2,1,8,1,6,5,3,1, 2 (2/49, 11 places outside this)
Positives. Has ideal conditions. Has won from a higher mark
before.
Negatives. No profile negatives or with race conditions. This
is a step back up in class but she has won at this level. She couldn’t cling on
to win last time in her conditions, this season, and that was from a 3lb lower
mark and in class 5.
My Verdict. ½ point EW (20/1 general, 4 places). She has her
conditions and there are 4 places to aim at.
Good Luck,
Josh
p.s As I have said I will usually get emails to you the night before however at weekends they will always be with you by 10am at the latest.
p.p.s To repeat for those that have joined more recently. My Verdict is exactly that and is to be used as a guide only. That is how I am betting on the horse based on the profile and any other relevant information. It does not include an assessment of other runners (other than from pace perspective where necessary). All bets will be recorded to 1 point win bets and also the 'My Verdict' staking. It is up to you how you back them.
