Subject: Flat Profiles: Qualifiers 11/08/15

Hello Friend


2.45 Carlisle Gold Beau

Ideal Cond. 6f; Good to Firm; C5 or below

Form in Cond. 1,1,1,4,1 (0/22, 2 places outside)

Positives. Has his ideal conditions for first time this season. 3/8, 4 places OR61-70. 1/3 over CD. All other race conditions fine. 4/11, 5 places Good to Firm. 0/13, 1 place on Good.

Negatives. He is badly out of form. Visor does replace Cheekpieces, and he has never raced in one before. He is also unfancied at 25/1. 0/18, 2 places above 6/1.

My Verdict. 1/2 point win 25/1 (general) He does look out of sorts but there is a bit of pace in here and if he is going to show form again it will be in these conditions. If he does tail off back in the right grade on the right ground that will be a warning sign for future, until the money comes at least.

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6.45 Nott - Hallstatt

Ideal Cond. Nottingham; 14f-16f; Class 4<£6k; OR70 or below

Form in Cond. 1,2,2,2,1,3,1,1,8 6 (1/29, 4 places outside)

Positives. Back to the track he usually runs well at, 3/8, 6 places CD. Also back to last winning mark. All race conditions fine.

Negatives. He is 0/16, 1 place after June now, although he has never run here in that time. He also has a new jockey on.

My Verdict. 1 point win 8/1 (Bet365,SKyBet,PP,Tote) He usually runs his race here and dropping back down in class there is no reason I can see why he wont run his race again, and has been in reasonable form.

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8.00 Ffos Las Golden Jubilee

Ideal Cond. Ffos Las

Form in Cond. 1,1,2,2 (1/19, 3 places outside)

Positives. He won on the AW LTO so is in form and usually runs his race when sent to run on the flat at this track. He proved his stamina over 1m4 lto and although is arguably better over shorter he is placed twice over trip on turf, including here.

Negatives. He has his class to prove, yet to win above C5, but only 2 tries on turf. He is also now on a career high flat mark. There are arguably some more progressive rivals in here too.

My Verdict/ 1/2 point win 10/1. There are a few negatives but as yet he hasn't run a bad race here and will handle the juice in the turf. He is in form and should give it a good go, but there is a chance he bumps into one or two here.

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8.15 Nott Divertimenti

Ideal Cond. Nottingham; 6f; Good, Good to Firm; 1-30 days

Form in Cond. 2,1,1,9,10,1 9 (4/61, 15 places outside)

Positives. Has his most predictable conditions, and all race conditions fine.

Negatives. Well he isn't getting any younger but has shown enough life at times this season to show he can still run his race.

My Verdict. 1 point win 10/1 (BV/PP) 9/1 general. There is an inform well fancied fav in here but we should get a good run for our money from the selection and bar that fav it looks a rather open race. EW may be more prudent but I will go win only.


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Non Qualifiers

2.45 Carlisle MeandMyShadow - runs in same race as Gold Beau and in general has her conditions. She is 1/21, 5 places when returning 16-30 days, opposed to 7/42, 16 places 1-15 days. She is also 0/42 when sent off over 8/1. Currently 12s, if money does come she could give it a good go from the front and is 1/2, 2 places over CD. Hasn't won for some time now and has had a few frustrating seconds. Blinkers return here as well.

7.45 Nott -Sleepy Blue Ocean - 0/22, 6 places after July on flat, although appears to be fancied in the market today. All other race conditions fine.


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Josh









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