07/08/15

3.50 Brighton Powerful Wind 

Ideal Cond. Good to Firm, 1-11 runners 

Form in Cond. 1,1,1,1,10, 1, 11 (1/19, 2 places outside) 

Positives. Has his conditions and is still well handicapped on old form. His last two runs can be ignored. The  ground was against him LTO and he was stuck wide at Sandown and never able to dominate.

Negatives. Stamina is the biggest concern. This is 7 yards shy of 6f and he has never raced beyond 5.5 so it is hard to know if he will empty out late.  

My Verdict. 1/2 point win 25/1. He has won at a big price before and if quick enough could get an easy lead again here. I can't definitely say he wont stay (will have more idea after today) as he has won over 5.5 at Bath. This extra 110 yards may make the difference. I dont think there is any point in an EW bet as if he doesnt stay he will drop away, as he will if he cant dominate. 

***

5.00 Muss La Bacouetteuse 

Ideal Cond. Musselburgh; Class 5 or below; OR70 or below

Form in Cond. 3,2,7,1,1,9,3,1,3,5,5,1,1 4, 8 (3/31, 7 places outside) 

Positives. Has conditions and all race conditions fine. Jockey 1/1 on horse. Proven course form and proven stamina unlike most of opposition. Handicapped to win again. Did win this race last year. 

Negatives. Isn't getting any younger and the last run in conditions was less than inspiring. There is a warm fav here who is progressive. He has to prove he stays this far and if he does could be hard to beat. 

My Verdict. 1 point win 9/2. He is worth another chance in conditions and will hopefully outstay them here. There doesn't look to be much pace on which is a concern but hopefully he can return to some kind of form at his fav track. 

***

5.55 Haydock Flying Power 

Ideal Cond. 1m4f; Class 5<3.5k

Form in Cond. 1,6,1,3,4,1,9, (0/17, 5 places outside) 

Positives. Has his conditions and had been running well before being stepped up in class LTO. He won this race last year. He is 3lb above his highest winning turf mark but has won from higher on the AW. That isnt enough to put me off. He should be up there and have no excuse in terms of track position. 

Negatives. None really. He takes on  a well fancied progressive horse but he does have a very inexperienced jockey on (0/11) so there could be reasons to take him on. 

My Verdict. 1 point win 7/1 (SkyBet/Coral/betfair sports) 6/1 general. I see no reason why he wont give it a good go from near the front again, under the same jockey that won this race on his last season. 

***

Non Qualifiers 

-3.00 Muss Opt Out - now 1/10 beyond 6f and the 8f trip a real unknown, now 0/1, 0 places. 

-3.50 Bright Hearsong - runs in same race as Powerful Wind. She is 0/9, 1 place on Good to Good to Firm in handicaps. 4/6, 5 places on Soft 

-5.55 Hay Jordaura - 1/21, 8 places on Good to Good to firm. 4/24, 8 places on good to soft, soft. Can run his race on sound surface but prefers cut. Also 0/5, 0 places beyond 10.5f. 

8.25 Newm Sunraider - now 1/22, 4 places after June, 4/8, 5 places in June. Hard to predict although did run ok lto. 

***

Josh