Hello Friend
26/06/15
8.25 Newmarket Chain of Events
Ideal Cond. 10f, May and June Form in Cond. 1,2,2,7,3,6,1,1,1,1,1 6, 5 (0/19, 3 places outside)
Positives. He has his conditions, takes a drop in class, is now 5lb below his highest winning mark and has George Baker up top (1/1) He goes on all ground it would appear and is 0/4, 2 places over CD
Negatives. Well he hasn't been in great form the last twice but his tally when over 8/1 now reads 0/17, 2 places, suggesting that he only really runs well when fancied. He is priced up at 8/1 at the moment.
My Verdict. 1 point win 8/1 (general). If he drifts we may be in trouble but if not we could be in business. He usually drops off after June so hopefully he can get his head in front tomorrow.
*** Non Qualifiers:- - Another Wise Kid (7.45 Newc) - currently 0/8, 2 places C2, 0/8, 3 places OR91+ in handicaps.
- Conry (8.05 Chest) Catterick Specialist
- Sarangoo (8.35 Chest)
- Me And My Shadow (8.45 Newcastle) If it is Good to Firm would be a qualifier based on profile. After rain today it was Good. She can win on worse than Good to Firm, but is 6/26 12 places on that surface as opposed to 2/25, 8 places on Good/Good to Soft, 0/10 0 places on Soft. Also now 0/40, 6 places when priced over 8/1. Interestingly her headgear has been removed which she has never performed in...
- Imperial Legend (9pm Newmarket) Now 0/30, 5 places outside of conditions after 7 runs this season. Is a July onwards horse, also 0/7 in this upper tier of class 4. (£6k+)
*** Humidor will probably be removed from the team now after winning again, today at 9/1. Before this season he hadn't won a handicap above OR87 but at the age of 8 he has now won off OR94 and OR97 this season. Before today he was also 0/10, 1 place in Class 2 handicaps, which just goes to show you should never truly write off a horse, even one with 38 starts to their name. He was 4/7 on marks OR90 or below but after today's win he wont be regressing to that level for some time.
***
All the best, Josh |
