Hello Friend 16/06/15 19.00 Brighton Taro Tywod Ideal Cond. OR70 or below; good – good to firm; 8f-10f Form in Cond. 1,2,9,5,2,2,1,2,1,3,8 3 (0/16, 0 places outside) Positives. He has his conditions and is 1lb below his highest winning mark after claims taken into account. He is 1/4 over CD, 1/5 with Jockey, and all wins have come when 6/1 or under (3/10, 6 places) Negatives. None My Verdict. 1 point win 4/1 (general)
*** Non Qualifiers (running in handicaps) *** A quick reflection...it isn't lost on me that we are suffering a bit of a torrid run at the moment, indeed we have had about 22 losers in a row to leave a loss of -6.5 points since launch. I am also conscious that those who joined after the first couple of days would have missed the 16/1 winner as well. Of the last 22 bets since our last win, only 6 have been under 10/1. Indeed we have backed quite a few bigger priced horses that also drift, and that have then run very poorly. Having had a look at the stats since launch horses priced over 10/1 are: 1/28, 5 places = -11 points (1 point win bets). Indeed since the season began and I started backing the horses myself all 'qualifiers' priced over 10/1 are; 2/43, 9 places = - 13 points. While I am confident that bigger priced selections will turn a profit over the course of the season, losing runs will obviously be more severe at times and we would appear to be suffering one now. Thankfully this is in contrast to those running that have been under 10/1, where the stats are much more palatable to date. Since launch these runners are 3/14, 8 places = +5.5 points. (1 point win bets) Staking is personal but if you had backed every horse for 2 points (2 points win under 5/1, and 1 point EW 5/1+) you would be on + 13 points. I haven't been doing this but it is something I may consider moving forward, given how consistently they have been running. It is comforting that when the horses are generally fancied in the market they are running well. Indeed since the start of the season the stats for those under 10/1 (1 point win) are 7/26, 16 places = + 18 points I make these points for information. For now I will continue to back the selections as I have been. I believe we will get our fair share of big priced winners that will end up being profitable but when backing at these kind of odds consistently, losing runs will be challenging at times. Given the stats to date I for one hope we start backing a few more fancied runners, starting tomorrow. Any questions or thoughts please email me, All the best, Josh
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