Hello Friend I have yet to watch the Byrd in Hand race but it appears he got away slowly, could never lead and didn't run very well. Nameitwhatyoulike improved on his 0/21, 5 places record on Good/Good to Firm at Pontefract and although they had some showers before racing it wasn't 'officially' soft and he didn't carry any of my money. Still, he has ran well on a sound surface before but his most consistent form has been on soft. It will be interesting how he goes on good or better next time. 5.00 Catterick Imperator Augustus Ideal Cond. 7f, C6 Form in Cond. 1,1,1 10 (2.25, 2 places outside) Positives. He has his conditions, is a CD winner, and won a division of this race last season. The '10' was when he virtually refused to race and he is clearly a bit of a character as he gets older. Negatives. He doesn't appear to be in great form. In saying that, his two most recent runs have been in C5 and he has only weakened late on in the final furlong on both occasions when looking dangerous. He looks like a C6 animal these days and this drop down could make the difference, provided he doesn't refuse again! My Verdict. 1/2 point EW 16/1 (general) In the 14/1-20/1 range he is 0/7, 2 places and bigger is 0/8, 0 places so any drift would be a concern. He has won when 12/1 before. The debate is whether to save a 1/2 point and just bet to win. I want to have something on as I feel he will go in at C6 at some point., although a really poor run here will pose a decision moving forward. If he is simply finishing weakly at the moment then he probably wont place but I will take a chance that he could get competitive here in what looks a very weak race. *** Non Qualifiers...
4.30 Catterick... Hallstatt / Hot Spice / Maoi Chinn / Miss Macnamara Well this is a situation that I hope doesn't happen too often. We have nearly half the field in this race however on their conditions none of them qualify. The ground is Good (good to soft in places) officially... Hallstatt has marked himself down as a Nottingham specialist, before winning well at Wetherby (a slightly similar track maybe) last time out. He is 0/4, 0 places Class 4£6k+ so could be outclassed. But he is in form and a big run wouldn't be a surprise, although he is 0/2, 0 places at track. Hot Spice is 0/12, 1 place on Good or Good to Soft. He dominated front the front last time, set his own pace and won as he pleased. He is also 0/17, 0 places in Class 4. A few team Easterby horses have been improving with similar records this season so nothing surprises me any more with either of those yards and it does look like he could lead again. Another in form horse but there are a few big negative stats there. MCT has only won on Good to Firm in flat handicaps but has places once on good, however he is out of form against quite a few in form rivals and is 0/7, 0 places when bigger than 8/1. Miss Macnamara is 4/6, 4 places over CD, but is 0/5, 0 places in class 4 and one of those was over CD. There could still be some improvement there but I would want to see more at this class first. So, there are compelling profile cases against all of them in my opinion and in an ideal world they will all lose. None will be carrying my money and we shall see if one of the other 5 horses in the race can do us a favour. It will be interesting either was and if any of them wins the will be doing something new, that had so far seemed beyond them.
*** All the best Josh
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