Hello Friend
Well that is the most disappointing feeling you can get when advising a horse to bet on - a complete no show, never put into the race and I am left scratching my head. He had won on soft, won on heavy and the trip should have been fine. The run and lack of jockey movement 4f out suggested there was something wrong and there was no market move to suggest a run like that was on its way. We will just have to put a line through that run.
Results since live = 4/28, 10 places + 7 points.
One person has unsubscribed already as this approach wasn't for them. I don't like losing runs as much as the next punter but they are going to happen. This is unlike a tipster service or even a 'standard' system in that we will be backing these horses again and again when getting their conditions and they should not be judged on one run, rather their performance in conditions over the course of a season. I have said it before but it would be great if as a collective group the 'team' could average at least 1 point profit each, and I see no reason why that isn't something to aim for. Since the start of the season the team are +25 points in profit.If you have any questions about anything you know where I am.
I will send out results for May since launch in the next couple of days for your records.
Right, onto tomorrow,
5.25 Ripon Valantino Oyster
Ideal Cond. Right Handed, May-August, OR70 or below
Form in Cond. 1,1,7,4,16,1,1,12,5,3,1,3,4,1,5,1,1 (1/18, 3 places outside this)
Positives. He has his ideal conditions and looks like he could lead if he so wants, and will certainly have no problem tracking the pace if his jockey doesn't take it up. He is suited to all race conditions and there will be no excuse, on paper at least. He is 2/4, 3 places over CD. Dale Swift has been booked and he is 3/10, 5 places on the horse.
Negatives. The great British weather. It is currently good to firm which is fine. Good is also fine. The worry is if there is heavy rain, and there is some forecast for this evening I believe. Tomorrow is meant to be sunny so we shall see! He is 0/5, 0 places on ground with any juice in. This is not conclusive but too much rain would be a worry.
My Verdict. 1 point win 10/1 (Bet365, SkyB) As you can see from his form line he does run the odd shocker in his conditions but over time has been very profitable. Unless it goes good to soft or worse there really will be no excuses on the day.
*** Those running outside their conditions - Fazza, San Cassiano (3.35 Ripon)
- Sarangoo (3.40 Brighton)
- Border Bandit (3.55 Ripon)
- Silver Alliance (4.10 Brighton)
- Olney Lass (5.15 Brighton)
Quick word on Border Bandit. We have backed him the last twice (first on the blog pre launch) when he has run well, and nearly won at 20/1 on the first occasion.He has crept up to OR81 for his latest 3rd and is 0/8 1 place OR81+, and also 0/4, 0 places above C4. Indeed he is 0/19, 1 place outside his conditions. If he was 1lb lower he would have been included above as while he has yet to perform in class 3 I would have had a decision to make.He is also 3/5 over CD. He isn't an official bet but this information is there for note as you may wish to look at the race. So far in his career he has always found a few too good from this kind of mark.
Silver Alliance is a going horse and needs Good to Firm. It is Good, Good to Soft in places at Brighton and was really soft when they raced there a few days ago. If there is a miraculous drying of the ground he would be a selection.
***
Have a great evening, Josh
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