Hello Friend Hellstatt drifted late in the day and ran as his record suggested he would when 'unbacked'. I was out for the day and as such bet last night, losing 1 point in the process although in truth I still would have backed him at 14s. Maybe he wasn't fit this time (he had won after a break hence willingness to back for full point) or it was a market reaction to the softening ground. However he has only raced on good to soft twice in handicaps and it is too early to tell whether or not he handles it. Onto tomorrow... 6.10 Carlisle Eastern Dragon Ideal Cond. Class 5 or 6, 16-30 days rest Form in Cond. 1,1,1 (1/12, 4 places outside this) Positives. He has his conditions and while still lightly raced (18 turf runs) indicting that his profile could develop further, to date he has run his best races in these conditions and appears to have a clear class ceiling. He is 2/2 on soft and 1/1 on heavy. He has also won on Good to Firm so for once there will be no complaints with the going, regardless of what the British weather does tomorrow. He is on a competitive mark. Negatives. Well it is a race full of inexperienced jockeys and ours in 1/10, 2 places on turf so far. This will also be the horses second run over 1m however there is plenty of stamina in the family and he has yet to prove he doesn't stay. There isn't much pace in the race so that should help. He is 0/3, 0 places RH but hasn't run in his conditions RH so again it is hard to judge. My Verdict. 1 point win. Market not fully formed, a range of 15/2-8/1 at time of writing. Bigger prices may be available tomorrow.There are a couple of niggles but he has his conditions and will handle the ground. I personally find it hard to back anything EW under 12-14/1 so will stick to 1 point. Hopefully he can make it 4/4.
*** Horses that do not qualify... Amenable, Conry, Meandmyshadow (6.00 Leic) Beat the Shower, Jan Smuts, La Bacouetteuse (8.40 Leic)
*** All the best, Josh
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