Hello Friend
3.30 Leicester English Summer
Ideal Cond. 8-15 days; 1m5.5f max; Class 3<10k Form in Cond. 1,6,1,1,3,2,1,1 3, 2, 1 (1/30, 5 places outside)
Positives. Well he has his conditions again and won for the first time LTO outside of this rest pattern. Generally race conditions are fine and he has won from higher marks in the past. He does just look like an in form horse.
Negatives. He is now 0/9, 3 places going RH in handicaps and is 0/4, 0 places under this jockey.
My Verdict. No Bet. This is a tricky one. He has won for us before and is in profit as a 'profile' horse. There are plenty of inform horses in here and many are open to improvement. He could well go in again but is not as strong in the market as you may expect for one that won so easily LTO. He is also now 10lb higher than when held by a rival at this track a few runs ago. You may of course look at the race and come to a different conclusion than me.
*** Non Qualifiers
-3.50 Red Kalk Bay - has his rest pattern (4/10, 6 places) but tended to be most predictable in August. He is 0/19, 2 places OR 81+ -5.20 Red - Mercers Row - peaks in May, although now with a new trainer. -5.50 Red - Whos Shirl - not so much of a profile this season, with more consistent form over 7f, having been most predictable over 6f.
***
Josh
| 