Hello Friend
A couple of pokes today and news on my completed Festival Review post...
Firstly...
Yesterday's horses may still be running...poor. No shock from Venetia's and they really should consider retiring him now/finding a new occupation. I was happy to roll the 1/2 a point dice. It's still rolling. Solid Strike did not strike and wasn't very solid! The hope was he would improve on recent efforts, it turns out I think he wasn't up to that level. May need to drop a few pounds and in class, but he will win handicap chases under rules, so add him to your trackers.
Onto today...
TIPS
(2016:+75 points;2017 18/185,+79.5;2018 4/47,14p, -5,Festival week 2018: +92)
4.00 Chep
Looks Like Power – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen)
Firebird Flyer – 1 point win – 18/1 (betfs/pp/betstars/BV) 16/1 (gen)
Danger horses/shortlist: Lac Sacre / Streets of Promise
You can find a 14 minute video preview HERE>>>
* Festival Review 2018
This post is now complete, with 4 videos and some 'what i learnt' thoughts below, for those who may not wish to watch! I'd like to think you'll take plenty from watching them, to apply to your own punting or certainly Festival handicaps. But you may think i'm talking nonsense!
I have repeated my written thoughts below... (the videos expand on the below as well as other bits and pieces, inc odd horse to follow)
What I learnt from Festival Week 2018
A successful week for being flexible with my stats, both the race trends and the unique trainer/jockey/owner micro angles. This is clearly the route to go down. (whatever the ground!) Do not be blinkered by narrow race trends shortlists, use a ‘long list’ if needs be. Attack the race both with stats/trends, but also ‘fresh’, without stats, looking at the race as you would normally. I have been guilty of being too ‘stats led’ in the past.
*
Micros… the portfolio of stats pointers… the 5 micros, notes on trainers/jockeys/owners served their purpose as ‘starting points’, and were useful in helping to finalise selections/work out ‘savers’. Yet again a timely reminder that Festival week can be as much about people, their skills and behaviour, as it is the actual horses!
*
Race analysis/prep…at times I do need to take a breath and step back from analysis…and just take a moment to see what horses may be appearing against various angles. I have Vaneer of Charm (33/1) in mind predominantly - he hit my main race stats shortlist, and then 4 or so sub sets of race pointers. He also appeared in the micros for Elliot. Had I taken a step back to see just how many times he cropped up, in the context that my eyes were fixed on those priced 25/1+ anyway (due to their record in race) he would have been further up my thinking. Also a lesson in not bothering with ‘form’ in the Fred Winter, especially! Whatever they have done to date, esp for a trainer like Elliot, it does not matter.
*
Take the time to just reflect on which trainer’s horses are running well. Who has been getting their horses to finish in the top 6-8 regularly? Ponder this after each day and certainly after day 2. After days 1-3, the likes of Tizzard, Skelton and Nicholls had plenty of horses running well- those three would win 5 of the 7 races on the Friday. (with Elliot winning the other two!!) Mullins / Elliot / Tizzard / Skelton / Nicholls – it really could be that simple in the years ahead… with a sprinkling of Gigginstown horses trained elsewhere, a bit of Hobbs/King, and a few wins for smaller yards. Tom George clearly knows how to target a good’un also. Given how well Gordon was firing, my pin should have been closer to 2/3 of his, all hitting some sort of stats!
Gordon Elliot – not much to say generally but a) he can clearly pre an unexposed handicap chaser to run well in a big field here (The Storyteller) (I’d long clocked on to the handicap hurdlers) b) his overall stats with handicap debutants are poor, but he fired in a few at this meeting- so, beware the Elliot handicap debutant c) Tiger Roll… this man has an eye for detail… this horse had been to Cheltenham a few times in recent months apparently to school over these unique fences. No stone left unturned. Beware any Elliot horse in the Cross Country, even those who may not have run well on the X country course before
*
Handicap/Chasers
The handicap chase winners from the week often shared common traits… the majority arrived here in decent enough for, often with decent runs under their belts. I don’t think any such winners really arrived here out of form. Many arrived on the back of wins or close placed finishes. Those that didn’t had valid excuses- the likes of The Storyteller had run in a G1, Le Prezien had stumbled badly when closing LTO, game over. Asking a chaser to bounce back to form at this meeting is a questionable betting tactic. This can be applied more generally to my chase punting- it sounds obvious, but sticking to in-form horses isn’t a bad starting point or end point! Eg. Mr Whitaker W lto/Shantou Flyer 2 lto/Ms Parfois 2/Regal Flow W, and to a lesser extent Missed Approach 2…and those are just the ones I backed. Le Prezien W was ‘in form’ when last seen, bar for a stumble he’d have won or been a running on placed horse,2nd/3rd in a decent race (and hadn’t really run a bad race all season) and Coo Star Sivola W
*
Plenty of the handicap chase winners (and chase winners) had form at Cheltenham, many of them chase form and many of them recent Cheltenham chase form at that! Plenty had Festival form also.
*
Prominent racers/pace…yet again over fences, plenty of races were won by horses that raced prominently/lead/or were never too far back. Some did come from further but in general, you got a run for your money if you backed one that raced ‘up in the van’. Being out in front, able to go the pace the jockey wishes (provided he/she has the skill to do so) is still the best place to be in any horse race, especially over fences!
*
Ruby Walsh said something very telling the day before the meeting. In what was expected to be deep ground, he anticipated jockeys going a sensible pace, slower than usual, and the races turning into more tactical affairs- more down to the skill of the jockey. In many races throughout the week he would prove to be correct. Looking back I don’t think there are too many, if any, tips I would not have backed were it decent ground. It made more of a difference in negatively assessing the chances of some other runners I suspect, but in general I wasn’t fixated on slow old boats who may just keep going. (well, apart from Vintage Clouds maybe!)
*
Profile… a mix of profiles too the handicap chase/NH Chase races, but most of them were at the unexposed end, certainly in handicap chases, and arguably hadn’t shown their full hand to the ‘capper. And/or as above they were in form. The Storyteller had a similar profile to many a handicap hurdler… having been running in some decent G1-3 novice races - small fields, maybe a class beyond him, tactical affairs… arriving at Cheltenham, bigger field, a handicap, (bit in hand), possible stronger pace (often, but not this year, better ground than they’d been running on all winter), resulting in an improved performance. Rathvinden was lightly raced for his age and had the odd decent run in G1/2s also. A touch of class- that is key…especially for the next race type…
Handicap/Hurdlers
Yet again, for the second year in a row that my eyes have fixated on this sort, the handicap hurdles were won by horses with very similar profiles…
Many/all were thoroughly unexposed in handicap hurdles
Most had form at some point in a big field hurdle- a few in maiden hurdles, 20+ runners, a few in handicaps – either recent form or at the Festival the previous year. This was some indication that they could handle such a field size and in fact that their best form could be when surrounded by horses and able to settle of a stronger pace. Running in big fields, in races run at a true gallop, is the reason for many horses stepping forward.
Many of the winners had been running in small field novice (G1/2/3) hurdles at some point this season, some running well. Some of them may have been running in races that have worked out well, and/or you will spot them having run in races won by horses who have already won at the Festival by the time you look at them. A couple of handicap hurdle winners had been chasing home Samcro in recent months. (applicable to the chasers also)
When you pull all of that together, and then add in any race stats pointers, and more importantly the main handicap hurdle protagonists- Elliot / Mullins / Henderson /Nicholls/ Skelton/ Gigginstown /Russell – and various micros associated with them etc, you get a potent mix which in general points to many a decent opportunity at 12/1 +
To a point, ‘form’ and what they have done on paper to date, in hurdles/handicap hurdles, is irrelevant. You are focussing on a lightly raced profile where, because of all those factors mentioned above, you expect improvement. Clearly it doesn’t come every time, but you’d be surprised how many horses this approach highlights that run well/win – and at decent odds. Arguably it’s a model to adapt to any higher-class handicap hurdle/festival, and indeed find ways to apply similar thinking to more run of the mill handicap hurdles in the week.
*
Staking…
I only made one staking howler on the week really, ½ a point on the 50/1 Albert Bartlett winner. There were a few factors in that, touched on in the video- I had a final day points amount I was willing to blow, to leave us a guaranteed +20 up – I left this race last and only had 1 point left and my stats pointed to two horses. I wanted to remain disciplined. I’m not too annoyed, but maybe if I’d have analysed the race earlier, due to the stats pointing to 2 and my history with the race (tipped Very Wood at 50s in 2014 also, and another winner since), I may have found 1 point from another race and gone a bit harder! But, maybe that is being picky! Still, for some clearer thinking I could have an extra +24.5 points in the bank for no extra analytical work.
I maybe could have approached the Ultima and the Stable Plate better – well, I feared Coo Star Sivola and The Storyteller in their races but couldn’t bring myself to tip them at their odds. With the Ultima, I maybe could have gone 1 point EW on Vintage Clouds, (instead of a moronically bullish 2 points win!) and I could have just thrown the Elliot winner into the mix. But I was happy with the write ups and pointed strongly to having a saver on The Storyteller, which many did.
The forecast… an elaborate bet in my head and not an option I think of very often… but, when I tip just two horses in a race, especially at big odds, I should think about it more- only as a bit of fun, but I had the 350/1 1st and 2nd in the Martin Pipe. That isn’t the first race this season where I’ve had a 1-2. Although maybe that is recency bias, but you don’t need many to drop in, even for £2.50 bets.
I would have to go through all the numbers but I think my general win only approach won a fair chunk more than halving those stakes and going EW. That is how I like to play the game, and in any one Festival week I hate the thought of losing more than a 25 point bank. In general, bar the AB winner above, I was happy with how it went on this front.
*
I think that covers all the main themes/ideas etc!
With any luck there is something above you find interesting,
I’ll be making sure I read through this every now and then, and before next year’s Festival,
Thanks for reading,
Josh
p.s Any questions, or indeed polite criticism (Josh you're talking boll***s again :)) is more than welcome as always...
p.p.s a list of ALL tips for the week, there for me to add to my tracker! The majority were unexposed and an in theory they may win one day!
Vintage Clouds 3rd / Shantou Flyer 2nd / Knight of Noir UP/ Ms Parfois 2nd / Duel At Dawn UP /Testify UP/ Mr Whitaker WON 9/1/ Bleu Berry WON 28/1 /Barra 3rd/ Fix Le Kap / Turning Gold 5th/ Mastermind UP / Lovenormoney UP/ Sykes UP / Last Goodbye UP / Willie Boy Fell / Sugar Baron UP/ Final Nudge UP/ Missed Approach WON 12/1 / Flying Tiger UP /Whisky Sour 3rd /Brelade UP /Smaoineamh Alainn UP /Discorama 2nd /Blow By Blow WON 12/1 /Dresden Fell /Some Plan Fell /Dolos UP /Kilbrichen Storm WON 50/1 / Mulcahys Hill UP/Western Climate /Billy Bronco /Regal Flow WON 25/1
* Hppefully something of interest in that little lot, I'll be back at some point, GL with any bets,
Josh
|
