Hello Friend
A decent 12/1 winner for the 'bet of the day' was the main highlight from yesterday's post but there is little time to dwell in this game...
In today's free post I have had a look at the Ebor Handicap. There are no tips as such but plenty of stats and an 'order of preference' that I have repeated below.
York Ebor
Concluding thoughts... (working out is below)
Cohesion is a NR which reduces the list and I am going to list the horses in order of preference....
1.Star Storm.. my main fancy from that lot I think. TJC are 3/7,4p in handicaps. Fanshawe in C2 flat handicaps, horse 60+ days rest... 4/16,9p. He is also age 5 which historically is the best age to be in this. And he us unexposed at the trip. At 10s or so he will be my main dart. He is also top 3 on Geegeez and Inform ratings.
2.Natural Scenery.. hasn't done too much wrong and has a claimer on board which peaked interest. Only 1/5,2p on turf there could be more to come. Looks to stay well and should run her race hopefully, for a trainer who has won this before.
3. Arch Villain... well this trainer has readied the odd horse after monster breaks before, and horses have won this race after lengthy absences.. clearly not one to go mad on but at 50s+, given place on the shortlist, I'm going to have to back him EW for small stakes. Just have to. Can you imagine if he wins/places with nothing on! Urgh. I'm not going to that dark punting place again. Clearly a stab.
4. Ivan Grozny... Mullins doesn't usually mess about with his flat runners and nor in this race. He is in form and well the horse could just be anything on the flat, including not very good. He ran at Galway LTO which is a positive and stamina shouldn't be a problem. Just whether he has the pace/class. Only one way to find out...
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Those are my main 4 darts... of the rest...
Winning Story.. I dismissed on the basis of the weight... nothing has won this with 9-10 on back in last 20 years, exc claims, I believe and this looks a tough task. Jockey bookings wouldn't inspire confidence either. Visor replaces CP, and doesn't really arrive here in form. May leave me red faced but I will leave I think. Uh oh. :)
Battersea... has a claimer on board and could take this. 4th in race last year off 7lb higher effectively. Came from too far back I think. The rest concerns me, 100+ days off... horse is 0/5,1p after breaks of 60+ days albeit some of those in very hot races and he ran ok. Varian can ready them. Hood is also removed. Maybe he is the answer but something niggled at me.
Flymetothestars... it's his first run on turf.. that was the main question, and at single figure odds may not be a big enough price for me to find out whether he can answer it. He may have no issue at all but it is a question he has to answer. Unexposed, connections in form, I won't be shocked if he wins this. Maybe saver material. Or bigger. Who knows.
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Stats/trends/shortlist...
10/10 : 0-1 track runs
10/10: placed at least once last three starts
10/10 : 8-13 or more on back
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Those 3 stats leave 11 runners... too many...
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9/10 had RUN over 16f+
Which...leaves 8: Winning Story / Battersea / Ivan Grozny / Natural Scenery / Star Storm / Cohesion / Arch Villain / Flymetothestars
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I can't really get it lower than that on the stats and it includes a 9/10 so may well have not have mentioned the winner!
9-10 is a negative, those are 0/24 in last 20 years, which would be a question for Winning Story
-Horses that ran at Galway LTO are 3/12,6p last 10 years, a plus for Ivan Grozny
-Claiming Jockeys - have a really good record in this, which given the distance is no surprise...any weight off prob makes a big difference... all claiming jocks are 4/25,8p, +79 BFSP last 10 years. Within those 4 stats above they are 4/7,4p...
-Within that 'shortlist' of 8 that would point the eyes to: Battersea / Natural Scenery / Cohesion
-With those 4 stats above, and that shortlist of 8... in the last 10 years those with 0-1 runs over the distance are 8/26,10p, +146 BFSP... that is a sort of micro that leaves 5...
Flymetothestars / Ivan Grozny / Star Storm / Natural Scenery / Cohesion ...
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Do with that as you please. They are not 'tips' as such, but hopefully something of interest there.
GL with any bets.
Josh |
