Good Afternoon, Friend
The Dublin Racing Festival: Trainers to Follow?
I've had a dive into the stats for all meetings to date, trying to unearth a few profitable trainer angles and work out who has done well here to date, and who hasn't.
I've repeated the post down below, but you can read it on the blog HERE >>>
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Intro
I’ve had a dive into my HorseRaceBase account in an attempt to dig out a few trainer angles for this weekend’s big meeting from Ireland. For HorseRaceBase users, I’ve used the ‘system builder’ tool, and homed in on the ‘Festival’ data, which is very useful, as with one click of a button I can dive into this weekend’s data.
This is the eighth running of the DRF, now 105 winners from 1225 runners. It’s no surprise that Willie Mullins is responsible for 47 of those winners, such is his dominance, Gordon Elliott next best with 16. And the gap appears to be getting wider and wider.
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Just looking at all trainers with 2 or more winners…
Trainers
Willie Mullins: 47/309, 95p, -61 SP
Gordon Elliott: 16/178, 51p, -21SP
Joseph O’Brien: 7/72, 24p, +24 SP
Henry De Bromhead: 6/106, 23p, -88 SP
Charles Byrnes: 4/11,5p, +24 SP
Jessie Harrington: 3/37, 7p, -15 SP
S R B Crawford: 2/10, 4p, +52 SP
Elizabeth Doyle: 2/9, 2p, +21 SP
Paul Nolan: 2/19, 6p, +0.5 SP
Gavin Cromwell: 2/30, 7p, -20 SP
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A few angles worth noting… all stats for the seven ‘DRFs’ to date, since start 2018…
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Willie Mullins
Race Type: Chase (open graded chases, non-hncp), Novice Chase, Novice Hurdle, NH Flat
Mullins had 1-3 runners in the race
Odds: 18/1 or shorter SP (guide, 0/9,1p bigger)
64 bets / 25 wins / 30 places (inc wins) / 39% sr / +53 SP / +79 BFSP
Note: in general Willie’s handicap winners at this meeting have been hard to find, 4/104, 18p, -52 SP
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Gordon Elliott
Horse Aged 6
Horse runs in prev 90 days: 0-3
Odds: 28/1 or shorter SP (guide, 0/5, 1p bigger)
33 bets / 9 wins / 16p / 27% sr / +60 SP / +104 BFSP
Note: GE will have other winners outside of this angle of course, (as is the case for all), but his 6YOs appear the most predictable, providing 9 of his 16 winners at this meeting to date. Within this angle, in handicaps: 6/17, 8p +67 BFSP. GE does appear to be avoiding Willie in the G1s, we’ll see how he goes in some of the other races, unless it’s just Willie’s world now! Gordon only had 1 runner for this angle last year but did place.
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Joseph O’Brien
All races except those restricted to 4YO+
Horse had 1+ run at track in career
Odds: 33/1 or shorter SP (guide, 0/9,1p bigger)
32 bets / 7 wins / 17p / 22% sr / +64 SP / +133 BFSP
Note: this angle covers all of JOBs DRF winners and I couldn’t find a logical way to narrow it down any further, and of course as always we’re dealing with small sample sizes and in part relying on trainer behaviour being replicated, which isn’t always the case! (and depends on the horses they have that season etc of course, their form going into the meeting and so on) These stats 0/7,3p the last two meetings, 2nds/3rds at 8s, 7s, and 4s, maybe due a winner this year! OR he’s running scared of Willie also, we shall see
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Those are the three ‘most winning’ trainers covered.
There’s no real way in with Henry De Bromhead, and three of his six winners were of course from Honeysuckle. He’s 1/60 in handicaps. 5 of his 6 winners, inc all of Honeysucke’s wins, were of course well fancied, those sent off 11/4 or shorter, 5/8,6p.
Jessie H had a couple of winners early on but now 0/20,1p at the last five meetings.
Some of the other smaller trainers are worth keeping an eye on…
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Charles Byrnes
11 bets / 4 wins / 5p / 36% sr / +24 SP / +37 BFSP
Note: some caution, as three of those winners were provided by ‘Off You Go’. However, he had another 7s SP winner, and one go very close in 2023, no runners last year. He has a couple of possible runners this weekend.
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Elizabeth Doyle
8 bets / 2 wins / 2p / 25% sr / +22 SP / +48 BFSP
Note: Those sent off 16/1<: 2/3,2p. She has one potential runner on Sunday.
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Stuart Crawford
Note: small numbers but it appears a meeting Stuart targets, and has four potential runners this weekend. We’ll see if he can add to said stats, which include a 20/1 winner last year.
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A fine January so far...
I will be posting any 'qualifiers' on the blog/Telegram update group, for RTP Members.
We've been having a decent time of it, my tips in January now 10/38, +45.5 points. A solid £1,137.50 to my £25 level stakes. I won't be doing that every month of course!
You can join in the fun HERE >>>
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All the best,
Josh
