Good Evening Friend
Thankfully John Gosden won the last race of the day to rescue it somewhat. Strictly there were 8 qualifiers I believe, one winner and one 8/1 2nd. The winner was available at 13/2 > 11/4 SP. Around a -0/5 to -1 point loss on the day for the systems.
Wesley Ward improved his already impressive results with his runners that are fancied 4/1<. And what a performance, in that ground. Impressive.
Anyway, we move onto day 3...
Aidan O'Brien (20/1<)
2.30 - Peace Envoy
John Gosden (12/1< guide, arguably now up to 20/1,esp EW)
3.05 - Royal Artillery
3.40 - Sovereign Parade / The Black Princess
Sir Michael Stoute (12/1<)
3.05 - Abdon / Mulk
3.40 - Queens Trust / Shall We
Mark Johnston (12/1<)
3.40 - Desertoflife
5.00 - Kings Pavillion
5.35 - Second Serve / Soldier In Action
*** John Gosden Micro Two?
This one is a bit after the horse has literally bolted but after his big priced day 1 winner I did dive back into the stats - and clearly regret not pursuing this line before the meeting...
Pre meeting this angle covered 4 of the 6 places in the 14/1-20/1 range, and now of course there is a 20/1 winner. So-
1st Career Run In a C4 20/1 or shorter
39 bets / 11 wins / 21 places / 28% sr / +58 SP / +83 BFSP / AE 1.98
With those that have had 1 career start only, he is now 3/3, including this year's winner.
Most of those are predominantly in non handicaps but is 2/7 in handicaps. Those running C5 or 6 for first career start are 4/31,12 places..13% sr . -4 Sp , AE 0.98
So, I dare say he won't have another such winner this year (sods law) but we shall see!
Clearly there will be some crossover with the other system but I will only count 'double qualifiers' once. (I will only be backing them once- but that is up to you)
There are two potentials tomorrow...
3.40 - The Black Princess (also in micro 1)
5.00 - Prediliction (not in micro 1)
Finally...his first micro system focussed on those distances where he'd had winners, and while small numbers he was 0/2,0 places over 5f in last 5 seasons. Well he has now put that right - when looking at 5f-12f he is now 1/11,6 places in the 14/1-20/1 range. So, a case could be made to lift that odds cap to 20/1. He is 0/12,4 places at 16f or further all odds...0/8, 3 places 20/1<. I will stick to 5-12f for now.
He will probably now have a winner outside of both of those but combined they should cover more of those that run well/go close in the 14/1-20/1 range if that makes sense.
I will now record results for both micros up to 20/1.He had a 20/1 second within Micro 1 today also. Clearly bigger odds are no great guide to how his have been going this week to date. Those in the 14/1-20/1 range look worthy of EW support.
*** Good Luck with your bets tomorrow, Josh
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