Hello Friend
The Irish Big Three: Some Stats
The less said about yesterday's abject effort from myself and Mon Lino the better - I thought he'd relish the mud but that resembled a sort of 'Haydock Heavy' which you either handle or you dont, and it doesn't look like he did. Bar a horse not coming home the most depressing thing in this game is when your betting slip is screwed up on the floor after 1/2 a mile or so, when there's still 3 miles to run! He was never really going a yard, didn't track the pace, was sticky at his jumps and found himself near the back - he wasn't enjoying life. Typical of my form this winter so far. Still, obviously i'm just waiting to burst into live in 3 weeks time! :)
However, there's always something to learn for the future... having failed to side with any horse from the Elliot/Mullins yards in a big chase, only to see one of them win, should always cause pause for thought and with that in mind, you may find the following of some interest >>> Irish Handicap Chases: The Big ThreeA case could be made that if you’re going to dip into an Irish Handicap Chase, just see if you can make a case for horses trained by 3 men (possibly with a look at those other trainers who’ve a decent race record, and I suppose Jessie H should never be underestimated) Obviously we know the horse power is concentrated in few hands in Ireland as per the stats below…Starter Set- Ireland
- 2m6.5f or further
- Class 1 or 2
- Trainers: Henry De Bromhead, Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliot
- 2015>
When those three trainers have at least one runner in a race between them, hitting that starter set above:- - In all non handicaps: They win 67% of races
- In all handicaps: They win 47% of races
- In Handicap Chases: They win 47% of all races
- And in Handicap Chases with 16+ runners… they win 57% of all said races. (28 wins from 49 races)
Obviously they’ll have a fair chunk of runners between them , and can’t just be backed blind, but still, impressive nonetheless and food for thought, especially if never having any of their charges onside!!! Doh. Some note of caution I suppose… what with Gigginstown pulling out of the game in the next few years that may have some impact, esp for Gordon and Henry – so we shall see how that affects things. But still, not a bad 'way in' for next couple of years. You could clearly do a lot worse than just focussing on their runners in the conditions above.
* Paul Nicholls...
...in other news hopefully those of you who noted my Feb angle for him from previous emails have been tucking in. I should clarify that all of my stats refer to UK/Irish form and do not take account of runs abroad, which can be ignored. In any case he had a 6/1 double or so yesterday with his two Scottish raiders (that's 2x doubles with his Muss qualifiers now this month), both available at 6/4 in the morning, another +3 to the pot.
My Monthly Trainers are now on around +153 points BFSP since the start of September in the Members' Club and are providing plenty of light in an otherwise dark season to date. A nice return even to £2 bets. He's got two today and we shall see how they go...
4.05 Lud – Southfield Harvest 11/8
5.02 Donc – Flash De Touzaine 6/1
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All the best, Josh
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