| Good Morning Friend
Over on the blog I have had a look at the Devon National and repeated the Tips + write up below. I managed to find Vieux Lion Rouge last Saturday at 8s which was a welcome 'tipped' winner. A couple of losers since but hopefully one of these can go in.
I won't email out tomorrow but will no doubt have some thoughts on the big chases from Kempton and Newcastle up on the blog.
The Big Race 'Winning Profiles' have done well the last two Saturday's and with any luck will do so again.
Anyway, you can read today's post in the usual place HERE>>>
The preview is below...
3.50 Exeter
Barton Gift - 1 point win 14/1 (bet365/BV/Lad/Boyle) (12/1 general)
Theatrical Star - 1 point win - 12/1 (SkyB/BV) 11/1 | 10/1 (general)
What's that sound? Ah yes, me screwing the cap back onto my meds. We all know one of the three at the top of the market - those slightly younger legs,possibly more in hand, unexposed at the trip..may well take this. But I can't have them at their prices, certainly not the top two. More on them in a moment.
These two look over priced to my eye.
Barton Gift- well clearly I can't get this horse right to save my life and it would have been nice to have been on at least one of his recent victories. But he is the solid one in here who 'should', famous last words, give me a run for my money - at least until the final couple of fences where something with more in hand may grind their way past. There is a chance this horse is just getting better at age 10, that he is just in the form of his life, certainly over these marathon trips. He has course form, he is in form, he is 4/7,4p over 3m5f+, soft is as soft as he wants it- so the ground looks idea actually, there is a chance he can get an uncontested lead again, the jockey gets on well with him, he is a perfect 3/3 over fences when returning within 15 days of his last start, and importantly... he has won having worn the same headgear on recent previous runs. I had noticed they had kept switching headgear recently and he kept running well- I noticed that before his last win, but failed to act. Moron. We know what we will get. He will try and put these under pressure from the front. And whether or not from flag fall, or after a few fences, should get the lead at some point with any luck.
So, the only question is his handicap mark for me. He needs another career best. I said that before his last win. He proved me wrong. All of us will think his mark is too high, surely something will nab him. But, he usually jumps soundly when able to lead and we know he stays and he gallops. He won't be stopping, if on a going day. And the rest, including those near the front of the market,will be coming from further behind- they will have to make up ground. And, that can cause problems/poses questions. It is the only negative that I can see. And, given he is 14s, were he to win, it would ruin the weekend- that's even before I tip a couple of donkeys at Kempton and Newcastle! He shouldn't be 14s. On everything we know, he shouldn't be. There is a class question I suppose, but, he hasn't had that many goes over this trip, on ground no worse than soft, at this level. And, he is just in good form. He has won at C3. He is also the only horse who is top 3 on both HRB and Geegeez Speed, which is a positive I think. And given the questions a lot of these have, a simple repeat of his last run may well put him in the mix. He may not need to improve again. And in actual weight terms, he has less to lug around than the last day.
Anyway, I have probably missed the boat with him this season but hopefully he can get a lead early and it is clear he is travelling. He rarely runs a bad race over this distance, in this ground... (cue, a shocker..)
Theatrical Star...
Well. Where to start with him. I fancied him at Sandown where he ran well, admittedly in a race not working out great, but it was an ok Veteran's Chase and it was run at a solid enough pace I think. I like the way he moved through that race,and maybe the last run here was a sighter, for the canny Tizzards. The class drop I find interesting, this does feel easier than many recent runs, and in general he has been in good form. That last Veteratn's race here was decent enough. That hurdle run at Wincanton was decent enough in a C2 also, again maybe not the strongest but ok. But, it is the trip which took him from my maybe pile to a bet, at this price. Oh and he can carry weight, 2/2 with 11-12 on his back- that is tough over this distance, but again it is his price that draws me in.
He has only run beyond 26f once, and that was in the 2015 Classic Chase at Warwick, a G3, over 3m5f in very soft ground. He came a superb second, staying on all the way to the line. He wasn't stopping at Sandown two runs ago either, he kept going. It could be that this kind of trip, in calmer waters, is exactly what he wants these days. At 12s, I want to pay to find out. It would open up some more doors for him at his age. He can race prominently and I hope Powell just sits him behind the pace and they assume he will relish every yard- which based on that Warwick run he will. It looked like he was out-paced the last day and that shouldn't be an excuse here. My past tips can have a habit of winning once on their next three starts, usually when I am not on- hopefully this may be another.
I don't think these should be double figure prices, but time will tell. I was happy to take a dart. They both look proven stayers to my eye. So, we have that onside. And they are running well enough.
Of the rest...
Well one of the top 3 may well win this. Abracadabra Sivola is probably ok at 13/2. He is a TTP horse and is Geegeez Speed Top Rated... such qualifiers for TTP members are now 11/45, +25 BFSP in 2017 to date, prob around +10 points on top of that if using BOG bookies/morning prices. Solid. He is unexposed at the distance, but does have it to prove, and he does need to improve for it. He can race up there but I can't think they will try and make all with one whose stamina is unproven. His price may just about be ok, although I wasn't leaping out of my chair.
West of The Edge - looks interesting enough. He will stay I think, although this trip is tougher around here than his win at Market Rasen. He does need to step up though on previous form- but is unexposed at these distances. We know the trainer can train them for stamina. He has been held up over fences, and that will pose questions- jumping under pressure, traffic issues, needing more luck in running etc. In that context 3/1 seems short. They may race him more prominently of course,esp as they will be confident he stays. He can beat me, and if my two are out with the washing Team RTP will cheer him on for Nick. (part owner)
SpookyDooky is a silly price now- if you got on at bigger prices last night than well done. I can see why. The money suggests I may have thrown 2 points away. He takes a drop in class here, but has looked out of form. Of course, with Jonjo's yard, who knows. I can't read them, too inconsistent. There may be valid illness excuses for recent runs. Who knows why some of his run so badly, it isn't all just playing silly buggers with the handicapper. In any case this is easier than recent runs and that Midlands National run gave some hope this trip may be what he wants. A kind of plodding on effort over 4m, a chance this slight drop back in trip helps. Again though, he is a proper hold up horse- or has been. Maybe as the money is down they are going to race him more prominently- just the kind of change of tactics which could see him in a new light. There is a Right Handed question- 0/5,1p RH, all his best/winning form has been going LH. Now, that could be nothing- he has only had 1 chase run RH. But, again, at 7/2, in a race like this, you don't really want any questions. You want one that looks to have a bombproof chance. He doesn't to my eye. But, his mark is plummeting. I won't be shocked if/when he dots up. But I can't touch 7/2.
There is nothing at bigger prices I want to be on. I will touch on Woodford County - a course winner, who stays. He will stay. He just looks woefully out of form and isn't doing much different (headgear change say) to make me question why he would suddenly bounce back into form. Hobbs is back in great nick again, but he has never exactly had a really cold spell- since, when, the turn of the century! - that would excuse those runs. 12s seems short enough in the context of his recent form, were he 20s+ maybe a dabble. But even his best form may not be up to matching some of these.
Happy to leave the rest. They can beat me and I will then stare at their profiles in HRB and wonder why I wasn't on.
PACE.. Well Barton Gift will be up there, Theatrical Star not far behind with any luck. There shouldn't be any excuse on that front. Nothing else has habitually front run in here- and the odd one that has, isn't in great form. Woodford County may be up there for a time, Say My name- but not sure he is good enough to hold a position, the Pipe horse might- but I am hoping that would be reckless given they will want to ensure he gets the trip. Anything else that tries to make all will be doing something different than on their recent runs.
So, those two will do. Fingers crossed I have something to cheer up the home straight.
** Have a great weekend.
I will be in touch again Sunday I think with a great free Cheltenham Magazine. I sent this out last year and it is usually a good read, something to flick through with a brew.
All the best Josh
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