Hello Friend
Winter Season Ticket Closing Soon…Your last chance to try a different way to enjoy and profit from racing...
(there's something for everyone in today's email hopefully...well there's 5 tips below which i'll explain later but while i've probably cursed them now, you may enjoy the write ups etc...)
I’m closing the doors to my Winter Season Ticket offer, including your 60 day money back guarantee trial period. So, don't miss out :)
Now I won’t sit here and pretend I’m never opening the doors again. I will be…probably in early February, but I want to focus fully on the content over the next 8 weeks or so.
You’ll have seen all my previous encouragement to give it a go, so I won’t repeat it previous emails.
My members’ club isn’t for everyone. It may not even be for you. 118 of you recently joined, have put your trust in my unique approach and have fancied trying something a bit different – a unique way to profit from racing.
Around 15 of those folk decided in two days that it wasn’t for them and have been fully refunded!
You can’t please everyone :)
Thankfully for me, new members like Mike, Tom and John appear to be settling in and can see how exciting the future could be.
Their initial impressions are worth a read, as posted within my members’ club comments…
Morning All, I’m another who just joined on Josh’s recent recruitment drive so just wanted to post a quick hello. Very impressed so far, not only with the effort that Josh obviously puts in but the effort that many other members put in, it has a real community feel about it. I look forward to exchanging ideas with you all in the coming months. Mike
I feel rewarded already for all the pre-joining Question’s i sent to you (you’ll remember you said i was ‘thorough’ :) ) I already believe that joining will prove to be one of my best ever buying decisions relating to Racing. I love the ‘portfolio’ approach too! John
Hi Josh, I’m a newbie to your service and have to say how much I am enjoying it, thankyou. I watched your video, and keep running through all your stats and have to say how impressed I am. It took a while to sort it out in my head but I’m finally grasping it. Betting small stakes at the moment with a 200 point bank and I’m in front …..happy days!! Big thank-you to yourself and the members that offer up their tips, clearly a lot of talent out there! Kind regards, Tom.
Don’t forget you get a full 60 days to put my approach, and our community, to the test. If it’s not for you, then get all your money back, no questions asked.
For around £4.95 per week my Winter Season Ticket gets you full access for 6 months.
You get four profitable strategies to follow if you please, tips, unique trainer stats and access to a vibrant community of racing fans.
Being in my club is an experience like no other, and I’d like you to put it to the test.
My approach is all about empowering you to make your own decisions, if you wish. You may just follow my systems, tips (from me and fellow members), engage in the community, and/or use all information as starting points to finding your own bets.
Only 1-3% of punters make profit betting on the horses long term. My members’ club gives you everything you need to join that elite group.
Of course, don’t bother if you’re impatient, you think this game is easy or you won’t be bothered to put in any work reading my welcome email, or watching the odd welcome video. One of them is only 10 minutes long!! (yes rare for me I know) I know many just want to be told what to back with tips - which is fair enough. There's much more to my approach than that.
Learning together... I also think a big part of the club is trying to improve our knowledge of this great sport. That's what I try and do everyday and i'm confident that you'll be a much better punter in time from engaging in my content and the thoughts of fellow members. In the end this leads to more satisfaction and more profit. And you may have your own words of wisdom you wish to share.
With that in mind i've repeated 5 test tips from today's members' post below. Now, I'm fine long term in 'big' races and that has been a strength (yes yes recent efforts have been a bit underwhelming I know, but it's a long term game and still on +197 points for the year) but I want to improve on the day to day racing, and using all my members' posts stats qualifiers as starting points.
So, in early November I started a 'best of my stats' tipping test, putting up those stats qualifiers i thought looked most interesting at the odds, having done further study into the horses and the races. It's been an ok start.
80 bets / 20 wins / 40 wins|places / +16.1 points
A decent 20% ROI at the moment. But, it is a test for a reason as I know I need to improve but the purpose of this intro is for the five test tips that follow. No doubt they will all fall out the back of the tv today, but it's the write ups I want you to focus on - this is how I look at the game, rightly or wrongly, and I thought some of you may appreciate seeing how others think about racing.
Hopefully we can all improve together over time, whether you trial my members' club or not. So, today's 5 picks... there's usually 1-3 but 5 jumped out at me today... all hitting my stats somewhere and separate from the four main strategies...
12.10 Newc - Murchison River - 7/2 (Lad/BV/Coral) 10/3 (others)
12.40 Newc - Moores Novelty - 16/1 (bet365/BV/UniB) 14/1 (the rest)
1.35 Taunt - Mead Vale - 11/2 (gen)
1.55 War - Quarenta - 7/1 (bet365/BV/Uni/BetBright) 13/2 (the rest)
2.55 Newc - Captain Mowbray - 15/2 (Skyb/BV/Coral/BetB) 7/1 (gen)
posted 08.35...that's all for today... write ups...
Murchison River...well this day may be glorious or rather painful, we shall see. I think this race is about whether this one stays and how he handles the ground - if he does both, which clearly I think he will - then he wins this for me. My word it's an awful race and he's the only one on any recent form who's shown an appetite for winning. The CP appeared to work wonders LTO at Leicester and the yard have hit some form. He was doing all of his best work late on there and got better the further he climbed up that hill. Newcastle isn't as soft (officially!) as I thought it may be, good to soft, good in places, and I won't make assertions as to his going preferences yet, and Leicester was soft enough down the back of the hurdles track I think - their hurdles course is very strange. He ran on the soft on the flat but was 3 and clearly hadn't developed so I can't use that as much of a guide. Today will tell us plenty but he won with loads to spare there and as if he could improve further for this trip- going up and down on the spot after the last may be enough against this bunch. Sam does well with those making a quick return and he is the one to beat here. There's nothing else at the prices I want to be anywhere near but clearly if he doesn't handle those two new conditions as expected, some other mediocre beast will take it. Four of them will hopefully need the run. I thought anything over 3s was a shade of value here- if his last win was over this trip/ground, he'd have been put in at 2s. He should also race handy, in a 'no excuses' position.
Moores Novelty - 'the' poke of the day and yes anything could happen here... i had a look at Alexander's LTO PU stats and concluded that wasn't a reason to be put off, price allowing. Since start 2012/PU LTO/Handicaps/The PU for horse returning 151-700 days> 9/37,14p, +72 BFSP... that makes some logical sense suggesting many of those PUs are because the horse wasn't fit, at all. Also, those dropping 1/2 -4f from last run within those stats are 4/9,4p. The trainer is in his best form I can remember - 4/21,7p the last 14 days - and this is a target track for his handicap hurdlers - 5/16,7p in C5 handicap hurdles at track - 5/6,5p when Lucy is on, and Alexander is 4/17,6p with all runners here in the last year. The horse... he drops in trip here and gets some easier ground at a more galloping track. His run LTO was interesting to a point, before they turned for home. That Perth novice hurdle run interested me also. You'd normally think such a race there is a weak affair but all the horses in front are rated much higher, 20lb+ of him now. His other runs at the likes of Kelso and Ayr were not as bad as appears either- again horses around him/in front rated much higher. This one may have taken time to grow, and maybe he's a chaser of the future, but given all the above i'll throw a dart at 14s generally, 16s even better if you can get it. The danger is Diggin Deep who hacked up LTO in the race Moores Novelty ran in... this drop in trip may not suit but it is a more galloping track and despite his age he's still open to improvement - but he has gone up 10lb. But I won't be shocked if he follows up. I really couldn't have the rest at the prices for one reason or another.
Mead Vale - another a bit like the first pick today- he's an inform horse up against dross - based on what they've done on paper to date. There may well be a lurker (Pipes..?) both exposed and unexposed but this one won well LTO, racing prominently and staying on doggedly- if every horse had his attitude, as demonstrated by his head carriage , plenty would win many more races. He's gone up in the weights but is the best horse in the race on what they have done and his jockeys 10lb ensures he has a nice racing weight - he isn't the biggest and 11-12 would have probably weighed him down. He runs as if staying further and there isn't much pace on paper in this so I expect him to be up there, and they may try and make all. He jumped well LTO also. 11/2 was 2 points too big to my eyes. Those of interest... well Gwalia isn't over priced for one making handicap debut who needs to step forward and prove he can get his head in front. He's unexposed and clearly interesting and wouldn't be a shock winner. Williams isn't prolific with handicap debutants and is 0/8,1p at Taunton in recent years with them. Delface is interesting after the wind op, which may have worked and any money would suggest so. Decent ground is a question for him. He finished behind Borak two starts back at Ffos Las, who the selection put in his place LTO when winning. The CP return and it is Pipe, so who knows, but you're also taking fitness on trust. I can leave the King 3 year old for now at single figures but clearly unexposed. Alex Dunn... 3 in here, two of them stats quals below in the test zone...the ship may have sailed on that front as she hit some form and has had a couple of decent winners for that angle inc one at 66/1 in recent days. I know some of you had a nibble! Maraakib and Truckers Tangle are interesting to a point, and I wouldn't put anyone off £2 BFSP for a laugh. She's in form, and they are the type who just pop up every now and then for her, seemingly from nowhere. Both those two have so many questions you couldn't tip them, but Maraakib is at least fit, his run LTO was after 70+ days when never put into the race, and he's unexposed over hurdles, but looked regressive when last seen on the flat. But, Mead Vale is the one to beat and he's still open to improvement, for his in form yard who do so well with LTO winners. 11/2 is too big on what we know, even if he tails off.
Quarenta - a fascinating one here who's price should be much closer to Hobbs. I've watched that Chepstow race back and he was given a gentle introduction to chasing for me - as he should have been. Aidan wasn't moving on him 3/4 out, when every other jockey in front was starting to ride- but I understand him not wanting to throw him into his fences, given his inexperience. It was his 2nd run back after an absence, which was after a few runs which suggested there was a problem. He does know how to win- which is a question for the fav- and he will appreciate this better ground. I thought 7s was overpriced and this is a target track for Jonjo- 5/22,9p in C4 handicap chases at the track last 5 years, 3/11,5p in 3m handicap chases here. The horse also has course form. I wanted to take on the Hobbs horse... he has yet to win a race and having watched him there's something about the way he carried his head/ears at Chepstow which made me wonder if he's a rogue under pressure or hasn't yet learnt how to respond to his jockey. I could be talking nonsense there but he's yet to win a race- clearly if the selection doesn't step forward as hoped, he is the one to beat based on that run. He is unexposed and Dicky is back on. Jarlath is a W1 qualifier, as he won LTO! He's more exposed than some but jumped well on the front end at the course there- the question is stamina which he has to prove and i think there will be stronger stayers in this. But if they fluff their lines then he may just keep going and maybe this trip will bring out more now he;s older/stronger. I can leave the 10 year old although he ran well at Huntingdon so no shock if he's in there pitching, and I can just watch the 15 year old Paddy with a smile. Surely he couldn't, on seasonal reappearance! What a legend of a horse.
Captain Mowbray... for the life of me i can't work out why he's 15/2 here. He's fit, in form, jumps well, is very consistent over fences/this trip, stays and his yard are in form - he is a hold up horse which I never like over fences but 15/2 was enough to lure me in, especially given on the pace maps, being held up over fences at Newcastle isn't a hindrance. Blakerigg isn't overpriced at 9/4 but bolted up over shorter LTO- he has to prove he stays and that he can string two good runs together- he may do that, but at 9/4 i want to take him on - another for W1 and if i'm wrong with the tip clearly I hope he wins for that strategy. I can leave Longsdon's at the price who has to do more for me but is unexposed. Newtown Lad is a silly price at 5s given his recent form- even if he bolts up. The only way you could back him at that price is if speaking to his trainer personally and getting encouragement. Too much to prove at the moment. Boston Spray- oh come on, 8/1 for a horse who likes to clout a fence, fall and be PU. Yes he has a good trainer but on what we know you'd want bigger than that. Well I would. I can live with him winning at 8s given his form profile. If he gets it all together then good on him. Orioninverness has to prove he stays, which I don't think he does, and he's a C5 chaser. Whiskey is 10 and will hopefully need the run but has won fresh- Brian Hughes maybe had the choice, or The Don is giving Lorcan some valuable experience, but I can leave him. I can't have the two Alexander horses on what they've done and if one wins, so be it. Fly Rory Fly is a big odds strategy qualifier so I won't mind if he wins, backed from 25s into 12s in places - I thought fitness was a question but the blinkers return and he's unexposed. If Captain runs his race he won't be far away - there's a chance all those in front fall in a hole from 2 out and he'll just gallop past. They can ride him too cold at times so hopefully they are not too stupid, but they clearly feel he has to run through horses to be seen to best effect.
That's the lot, plenty of logic, every horse gone over with a fine tooth comb, as have all the oppo in every race. What will be will be :) gulp. Best of luck.
*
If you'd like to step into a new racing world, and join Mike, John and Tom, now is your chance.
You've got nothing to lose, as you can get a full refund if you don't like my approach, but for some of you it will be transformative, taking your racing experience to new heights :)
Oh, and you could win over +£1800 to just £5 bets in the coming months, if not more.
|
