Good Morning Friend

I've had a flick through the last eight meetings and dived into all 11 trainers that have trained 5 or more winners in that time. 

They include Hobbs, Pipe, Nicholls, Tizzard, Henderson, King, Fergal, Twister, Jonjo, Skelton and Fry

For example, take note when Dan Skelton has a fancied one, sent off 6/1 or shorter SP... 8 bets / 5 wins / 6p / 63% sr / +10 SP / +11 BFSP / BFAE 2.15

With any luck they help your land on a winner or three. 

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Lingfield

One of my members, Chris B, is off racing and has requested some ‘through the card’ pointers, which I’m always happy to dabble in time allowing/with warning. They usually go ‘ok’ when I don’t rush (x3 winners a few times, yet to find x4, so here's hoping), so we’ll see how the below unfolds, hopefully not a complete blank, but with any luck I say something useful for today or coming days… this was posted at 9am... 

13.07 – Mourzouk – 11/1 – interesting at a price… Tim Vaughan doesn’t have many bumper winners, 5/71, 14p last 5 years, but of some interest… he’s 1/2 around here in such races, and that winner was last October, with a horse having 1st career start… for these very same owners, and that one was also flat bred, as is this one – he looks good on paper at least, and should have the speed for this. I wonder if this has been a plan from connections. It’s a NH flat race around a tight AW track, so anything could happen, the fav is strong enough, if he has the speed.

John Butler knows what’s needed to win a NHF race and can ready them. They know when to put the cash down so the market may well guide with Silverhill Stamp, currently 9/2. Henderson’s needs more but at least has experience, yard going well. But, at a price, Vaughan’s will do for me, with an eye on Butlers. Maybe the pair of them for fun.

13.37 – Khan – 10/3 – you’re taking fitness on trust with a fair few in here and I thought it was between the top two in the market. The booking of Paddy Brennan caught the eye on Khan, 7/15,10p for the yard in the last year and he’s an upgrade on Harry Reed, for all he hasn’t done much wrong. He may eek out a bit more on him today. I thought a chance this horse may appreciate the better ground more so than the Nicholls horse, who’s been kept to proper soft/heavy plenty, for all he is the one to beat. But Khan stays well and Paddy may be ultra aggressive. He’s fit, in form, tries, is consistent, some of his form is ok, and receives a fair chunk of weight. The handicapper may well have the Nicholls horse, we shall see. Maybe they’ll be battling it out, so I suppose fun track side RFC options if that’s your thing. Milton (i think) Harris is having a fine season, 13/35, 22p in the last 30 days, 5/16,11p in the last 14, 68% rivals beaten. He’ll give it a good go. Too many unknowns for the rest of them.

14.07 – Movethechains – time to go to the bar. He should win this if running his race, winning with any amount in hand LTO and this race doesn’t look that great either. His for the taking. 8/13. One to just watch for me, unless doubles /multiples are your thing, he could be thrown in with something else.

14.37 – Marble Sands 7/2 – hmm, what a fascinating contest this is and it could be worth following. It’s hard to be confident on anything of course and most of these have some half decent form in bumpers or points, all in the ‘could be anything’ category to some degree. I preferred Fergal’s, as he has at least won a race, so knows how to do that, and all of his bumper form reads well, numerous winners out of most races, including his fine Hunt effort under a penalty, beat by Washington who cruised home at Bangor the other day on hurdle debut. That Hunt NHF is now 5/9, his 7l 5th in a Listed bumper at Ascot wasn’t too bad either, Knappers Hill won that, he’s a good’un in the making. He may be transformed again for a summer off, hurdles and a step up in trip. A nice prospect.

As is the Olly Murphy horse but form is hard to get a grip on, his Irish bumper now 0/11,4p. But the yard are flying… 13/37, 21p in the last 14 days, 73% rivals beaten. I don’t remember them ever being in such form and they appear to have a nice bunch of young horses, especially for hurdling. Twister’s looks a nice prospect in the making also. I don’t understand why Flagrant Delitiep is so short, maybe i’ll soon find out, yard 0/16,1p last 14 days, 1/54 all runners 60+ days last 2 years, he’s a nice chaser, worth keeping an eye on – surely a prep for a target they’ve got in mind, maybe, I suppose he sets a good level, 131, but just whether he’s fit and has the pace. Fergal’s will do for me here, but clearly not a race you can have an overly strong view on.

15.07 – ah, a hurdle race for flat jockeys, what a fine punting proposition! The market, and indeed form, suggests Siroco Jo is the one to beat, 4/7. There’s no real reason to oppose him, and I’m sure Kevin Stott has done a bit of schooling at Paul’s.

Albert Van Ornum has races in him, whether today I’m not sure, but Moore is 4/21,9p with his handicap debutants here in the last 5 years, and he ‘could be anything’ now stepping into handicaps. I would probably put my track side £5 on him, or spend it at the bar.

15.37 – Vocaliser – 6/1 – I think I’d go with Olly Murphy’s exposed chaser here, second run back after a wind op and it was a promising run, in a race which is working out well. The yard form a big plus also. This mark is fine and Lewis Stones can ride – this horse just knows how to win over fences, likes winning, generally jumps well and tries. He should be thereabouts and I think is the ‘value’ play.

I do like Clondaw Promise (and he has chases in him), I just think 7/2 is tight enough – especially as he clouted a few on his chase debut, for all he should learn from that and did shape well for a long way, not far off the lead when crunching 2 out. But more so I didn’t think he wanted a drop in trip, he was outpaced at times over 24/25f over hurdles. The trip and his inexperience are the niggle, but of the top two in the market, I think I just prefer him. But, he’s yet to win a race of any sort either, including a place in a point, and backing 11 race maidens at 7/2 may not be a wise long term strategy. Still, if he jumps, and can easily hold a position through this, he won’t be far away.

Dorking Lad is unexposed also and may go well, I wasn’t overly sold with his return LTO, his jumping was scrappy, for all he did shape as if needing it. His form is hard to weigh up, he has taken a while to learn to drop his head, conserve energy and use himself. He’s getting there, and the yard in fine form also. 

Gary Moore is 7/16,8pin handicap chases around here in the last 730 days, when Jamie is up, 6/17,10p all races here in last 2 years. Still, there’s something about the top two I don’t quite like, in the context of their odds. I will no doubt be wrong on one of them, but i’d take a chance on Vocaliser winning his 8th chase. He shouldn’t be far away, just whether one of the unexposed ones steps forward. I didn’t like the rest for one reason or another.

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Thanks for reading and best of luck with any bets as always, 

Josh 

p.s have a flick through my Cheltenham trainer stats post HERE >>>